La escuela de los momios

Braga v Arouca

Inicio: 2026-04-12 17:00 UTC

Final: Braga 1–0 Arouca

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Braga (Local)

Predicción 65.36%1.53momio equitativo
EV -1.96%
Ventaja -1.31%
Kelly -3.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.13%65.37%65.41%67.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.361.421.421.5073.53%70.30%70.42%66.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Arouca (Visitante)

Predicción 13.75%7.27momio equitativo
EV +4.11%
Ventaja +0.543%
Kelly +0.626%
Crecimiento +0.026%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.58%13.77%13.69%16.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.806.787.007.5717.24%14.76%14.29%13.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.89%4.79momio equitativo
EV +0.266%
Ventaja +0.055%
Kelly +0.070%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.15%20.86%20.90%23.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.434.454.8026.67%22.60%22.47%20.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.45I 68.97%NM 66.40%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%7.57I 13.21%NM 12.72%EV +4.11%E +0.543%K +0.626%G +0.026%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.88%EV -3.70%E -0.803%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-12 16:55
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV +3.15%E +0.420%K +0.485%G +0.015%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -0.779%E -0.164%K -0.208%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 16:30
Svenska Spel1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV +3.15%E +0.420%K +0.485%G +0.015%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:53
ATG (SE)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV +3.15%E +0.420%K +0.485%G +0.015%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:53
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 64.50%EV -1.96%E -1.31%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.27I 13.76%NM 13.31%EV -0.012%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.19%EV -8.93%E -2.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 16:54
Coolbet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.85%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.08%EV -0.287%E -0.040%K -0.046%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 16:54
BetUS1.43I 69.93%NM 65.85%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.21%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.99%EV -0.287%E -0.040%K -0.046%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.16%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 16:54
Unibet (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV -0.975%E -0.135%K -0.157%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 16:30
DraftKings1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:55
Grosvenor1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:53
Casumo1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:53
betPARX1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:51
Bally Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:53
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:55
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:55
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -1.82%E -0.388%K -0.493%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 16:30
Bet Right1.42I 70.42%NM 65.55%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:54
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.55%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:55
TABtouch1.41I 70.92%NM 65.71%EV -7.85%E -5.56%K -19.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:51
BetRivers1.41I 70.92%NM 65.71%EV -7.85%E -5.56%K -19.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:47
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:30
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:30
Unibet1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:53
Unibet (NL)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:52
LeoVegas (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:53
Unibet (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:53
LiveScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:51
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:15
FanDuel1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 16:54
PMU (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -9.81%E -7.11%K -25.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.95%EV -9.13%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 16:53
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -9.81%E -7.11%K -25.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.95%EV -9.13%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 16:51
LeoVegas1.36I 73.53%NM 66.20%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.94%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-12 16:53
NetBet (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 64.40%EV -7.85%E -5.56%K -19.14%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -7.16%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 16:55
GTbets1.49I 67.11%NM 63.54%EV -2.62%E -1.76%K -5.34%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.34%EV -9.23%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.12%EV -10.60%E -2.48%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 16:01
LowVig.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 64.55%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.99%EV -9.23%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 16:54
BetOnline.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 64.55%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.99%EV -9.23%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 16:55
Marathon Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.24%EV -9.91%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.97%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 16:15
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 63.76%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 16:35
Betclic (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.94%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.85%EV -2.87%E -0.617%K -0.786%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 16:55
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:00
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:49
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:00
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:50
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 16:34
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -9.55%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 16:30
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -9.55%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 63.62%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.31%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -21.67%E -5.78%K -7.88%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-12 16:30
Betsson1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -4.58%E -3.14%K -9.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -11.98%E -1.87%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 16:55
NordicBet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -4.58%E -3.14%K -9.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -11.98%E -1.87%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 16:54
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 63.73%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.78%EV -14.04%E -2.25%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 16:54
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 66.14%EV -9.15%E -6.58%K -23.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.71%EV -14.04%E -2.25%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV +0.266%E +0.055%K +0.070%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 16:30
Winamax (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -9.81%E -7.11%K -25.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -14.04%E -2.25%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -1.82%E -0.388%K -0.493%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -17.48%E -2.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:35
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -17.48%E -2.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:55
BetMGM1.45I 68.97%NM 64.23%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -17.48%E -2.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:35
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -20.23%E -3.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -20.23%E -3.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 16:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.45%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.17%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.37%0.2%2026-04-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.60%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%0.6%2026-04-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.60%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%0.6%2026-04-12 16:55
Matchbook1.46I 68.49%NM 67.75%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19%1.1%2026-04-12 16:55
Smarkets1.46I 68.49%NM 67.26%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.46%1.8%2026-04-12 16:55
Kalshi1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.63%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.40%3.0%2026-04-12 16:30