L’École des cotes

Braga v Arouca

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-12 17:00 UTC

Score final : Braga 1–0 Arouca

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Braga (Local)

Prévision 65.36%1.53cote équitable
EV -1.96%
Avantage -1.31%
Kelly -3.93%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
63.13%65.37%65.41%67.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.361.421.421.5073.53%70.30%70.42%66.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Arouca (Visiteur)

Prévision 13.75%7.27cote équitable
EV +4.11%
Avantage +0.543%
Kelly +0.626%
Croissance +0.026%

avec la cote maximale 7.57

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
12.58%13.77%13.69%16.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.806.787.007.5717.24%14.76%14.29%13.21%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 20.89%4.79cote équitable
EV +0.266%
Avantage +0.055%
Kelly +0.070%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.15%20.86%20.90%23.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.434.454.8026.67%22.60%22.47%20.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.45I 68.97%NM 66.40%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%7.57I 13.21%NM 12.72%EV +4.11%E +0.543%K +0.626%G +0.026%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.88%EV -3.70%E -0.803%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-12 16:55
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV +3.15%E +0.420%K +0.485%G +0.015%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -0.779%E -0.164%K -0.208%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 16:30
Svenska Spel1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV +3.15%E +0.420%K +0.485%G +0.015%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:53
ATG (SE)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV +3.15%E +0.420%K +0.485%G +0.015%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:53
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 64.50%EV -1.96%E -1.31%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.27I 13.76%NM 13.31%EV -0.012%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.19%EV -8.93%E -2.05%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 16:54
Coolbet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.85%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.08%EV -0.287%E -0.040%K -0.046%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 16:54
BetUS1.43I 69.93%NM 65.85%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.21%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.99%EV -0.287%E -0.040%K -0.046%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.16%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 16:54
Unibet (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV -0.975%E -0.135%K -0.157%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 16:30
DraftKings1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:55
Grosvenor1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:53
Casumo1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:53
betPARX1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:51
Bally Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:53
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:55
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 16:55
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -1.82%E -0.388%K -0.493%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 16:30
Bet Right1.42I 70.42%NM 65.55%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:54
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.55%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:55
TABtouch1.41I 70.92%NM 65.71%EV -7.85%E -5.56%K -19.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:51
BetRivers1.41I 70.92%NM 65.71%EV -7.85%E -5.56%K -19.14%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:47
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:30
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:30
Unibet1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:53
Unibet (NL)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:52
LeoVegas (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:53
Unibet (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:53
LiveScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:51
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.09%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 16:15
FanDuel1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 16:54
PMU (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -9.81%E -7.11%K -25.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.95%EV -9.13%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 16:53
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -9.81%E -7.11%K -25.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.95%EV -9.13%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 16:51
LeoVegas1.36I 73.53%NM 66.20%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -3.73%E -0.532%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.94%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-12 16:53
NetBet (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 64.40%EV -7.85%E -5.56%K -19.14%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.45%EV -7.16%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -14.36%E -3.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 16:55
GTbets1.49I 67.11%NM 63.54%EV -2.62%E -1.76%K -5.34%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.34%EV -9.23%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.12%EV -10.60%E -2.48%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 16:01
LowVig.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 64.55%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.99%EV -9.23%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 16:54
BetOnline.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 64.55%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.99%EV -9.23%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 16:55
Marathon Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.24%EV -9.91%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.97%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 16:15
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 63.76%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 16:35
Betclic (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.94%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.85%EV -2.87%E -0.617%K -0.786%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 16:55
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:00
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:49
888sport (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:00
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:50
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -5.88%E -4.09%K -13.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -12.27%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 16:34
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -9.55%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 16:30
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -9.55%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 63.62%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.31%EV -10.60%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -21.67%E -5.78%K -7.88%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-12 16:30
Betsson1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -4.58%E -3.14%K -9.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -11.98%E -1.87%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 16:55
NordicBet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.26%EV -4.58%E -3.14%K -9.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -11.98%E -1.87%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -7.05%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 16:54
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 63.73%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.78%EV -14.04%E -2.25%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -10.18%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 16:54
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 66.14%EV -9.15%E -6.58%K -23.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.71%EV -14.04%E -2.25%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV +0.266%E +0.055%K +0.070%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 16:30
Winamax (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -9.81%E -7.11%K -25.81%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -14.04%E -2.25%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -1.82%E -0.388%K -0.493%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -17.48%E -2.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:35
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -17.48%E -2.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:55
BetMGM1.45I 68.97%NM 64.23%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -17.48%E -2.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -3.91%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:35
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -20.23%E -3.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -3.27%E -2.21%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -20.23%E -3.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -6.00%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 16:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.45%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.17%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.37%0.2%2026-04-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.60%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%0.6%2026-04-12 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.60%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%0.6%2026-04-12 16:55
Matchbook1.46I 68.49%NM 67.75%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19%1.1%2026-04-12 16:55
Smarkets1.46I 68.49%NM 67.26%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.46%1.8%2026-04-12 16:55
Kalshi1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.63%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.40%3.0%2026-04-12 16:30