Language:English
Benfica v Vitória SC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Benfica (Local)
Prediction 78.81%1.27fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -9.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.00%78.85%78.83%81.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.191.201.2488.50%84.25%83.33%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vitória SC (Visit)
Prediction 7.56%13.22fair odd
EV +13.46%
Edge +0.898%
Kelly +0.962%
Growth +0.129%
assuming max odds 15.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.13%7.56%7.70%8.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5012.1712.0015.009.52%8.22%8.33%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 13.63%7.34fair odd
EV +6.29%
Edge +0.806%
Kelly +0.924%
Growth +0.058%
assuming max odds 7.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.99%13.59%13.47%14.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.766.507.8016.67%14.79%15.38%12.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benfica (Local): 78.81%; Vitória SC (Visit): 7.56%; Draw: 13.63%. For Vitória SC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.22. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.46%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -9.37%E -8.15%K -62.46%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV +13.46%E +0.898%K +0.962%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -4.61%E -0.659%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-21 17:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -10.16%E -8.91%K -72.55%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV +13.46%E +0.898%K +0.962%G +0.129% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -4.61%E -0.659%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 17:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -6.22%E -5.22%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.47%EV +9.68%E +0.668%K +0.717%G +0.069% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%EV -12.79%E -2.00%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 17:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.55%EV -6.22%E -5.22%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 14.08I 7.10%NM 6.81%EV +6.50%E +0.462%K +0.497%G +0.032% | 7.58I 13.19%NM 12.65%EV +3.29%E +0.434%K +0.500%G +0.016% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 17:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.33%EV -9.37%E -8.15%K -62.46%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV +5.90%E +0.421%K +0.454%G +0.027% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.99%EV +6.29%E +0.806%K +0.924%G +0.058% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 17:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.00%EV -7.00%E -5.94%K -38.92%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV +5.90%E +0.421%K +0.454%G +0.027% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 17:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.52%EV -3.85%E -3.16%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.19%EV +2.12%E +0.157%K +0.169%G +0.004% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.29%EV -0.527%E -0.072%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-21 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.05%EV -4.64%E -3.84%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.45%EV -1.67%E -0.128%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.50%EV +5.60%E +0.723%K +0.830%G +0.047% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 16:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.05%EV -4.64%E -3.84%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.45%EV -1.67%E -0.128%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.50%EV +5.60%E +0.723%K +0.830%G +0.047% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 16:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.60%EV -4.64%E -3.84%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -1.67%E -0.128%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.09%EV -8.02%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 17:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -1.67%E -0.128%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 17:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.91%EV -7.79%E -6.66%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -1.67%E -0.128%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -1.21%E -0.167%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 17:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -10.16%E -8.91%K -72.55%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -1.67%E -0.128%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV +2.20%E +0.293%K +0.338%G +0.007% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 17:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -9.37%E -8.15%K -62.46%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -1.67%E -0.128%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -4.61%E -0.659%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-21 17:33 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.03%EV -9.37%E -8.15%K -62.46%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.99%EV -1.67%E -0.128%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 17:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.72%EV -10.95%E -9.69%K -84.20%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -1.67%E -0.128%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.35%EV -8.02%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-21 17:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.27%EV -10.16%E -8.91%K -72.55%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86%EV -1.67%E -0.128%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -18.24%E -3.04%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-21 17:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV -5.45%E -0.436%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 17:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.03%EV -7.79%E -6.66%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.49%EV -5.45%E -0.436%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +2.20%E +0.293%K +0.338%G +0.007% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 17:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.06%EV -6.22%E -5.22%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%EV -5.45%E -0.436%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -12.79%E -2.00%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 17:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.36%EV -10.16%E -8.91%K -72.55%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24%EV -5.45%E -0.436%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -8.02%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-21 17:33 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -9.23%E -0.769%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -4.61%E -0.659%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 17:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -6.22%E -5.22%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV -9.23%E -0.769%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -4.61%E -0.659%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 17:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -9.23%E -0.769%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 17:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -9.23%E -0.769%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 17:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -9.23%E -0.769%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 17:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -9.23%E -0.769%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 17:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -9.23%E -0.769%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 17:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.00%E -5.94%K -38.92%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -9.23%E -0.769%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -4.61%E -0.659%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 17:06 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.00%E -5.94%K -38.92%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -9.23%E -0.769%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -4.61%E -0.659%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 16:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.40%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -9.23%E -0.769%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -14.83%E -2.37%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 17:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.13%EV -7.00%E -5.94%K -38.92%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -9.23%E -0.769%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 17:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.37%EV -2.28%E -1.84%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 8.16%EV -11.12%E -0.946%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.63I 15.08%NM 14.47%EV -9.66%E -1.46%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 17:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -4.64%E -3.84%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -13.01%E -1.13%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -8.02%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 17:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.85%EV -4.64%E -3.84%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.19%EV -13.01%E -1.13%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -8.02%E -1.19%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 17:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV -13.01%E -1.13%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -4.61%E -0.659%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 17:08 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.10%EV -9.37%E -8.15%K -62.46%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.91%EV -13.01%E -1.13%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -4.61%E -0.659%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-21 16:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.15%EV -4.64%E -3.84%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 17:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.15%EV -4.64%E -3.84%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 17:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.15%EV -4.64%E -3.84%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 17:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.15%EV -4.64%E -3.84%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 17:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 17:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 17:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 17:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 17:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 17:39 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -5.43%E -4.52%K -27.14%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -11.43%E -1.76%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 17:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -7.00%E -5.94%K -38.92%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -4.61%E -0.659%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 17:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.27%EV -6.22%E -5.22%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.37%EV -12.79%E -2.00%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 17:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.27%EV -6.22%E -5.22%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.37%EV -12.79%E -2.00%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-21 17:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.42%EV -7.00%E -5.94%K -38.92%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.31%EV -16.79%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.27%EV -12.79%E -2.00%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-21 17:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.23%EV -6.22%E -5.22%K -32.72%G +0.000% | 10.75I 9.30%NM 8.66%EV -18.68%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.11%EV -3.25%E -0.458%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 17:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.00%EV -7.79%E -6.66%K -45.84%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV -20.58%E -1.96%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.42%EV -14.83%E -2.37%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-21 17:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.19% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.68% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13% | 0.6% | 2026-03-21 17:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.19% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.68% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13% | 0.6% | 2026-03-21 17:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.19% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.68% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13% | 0.6% | 2026-03-21 17:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.05% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.84% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 17:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.18% | 17.01I 5.88%NM 5.80% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03% | 1.4% | 2026-03-21 17:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.64% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.77% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.58% | 3.3% | 2026-03-21 17:39 |