Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AVS Futebol SAD v CF Estrela

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AVS Futebol SAD (Local)

Prediction 33.07%3.02fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.14%33.33%33.05%38.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.812.802.9340.82%35.53%35.71%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CF Estrela (Visit)

Prediction 38.15%2.62fair odd
EV +8.73%
Edge +3.06%
Kelly +4.72%
Growth +0.412%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.75%37.93%38.19%39.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.452.8543.48%40.92%40.82%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.78%3.48fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.636%
Kelly -0.902%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.54%28.74%28.75%30.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.253.303.4034.72%30.72%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AVS Futebol SAD (Local): 33.07%; CF Estrela (Visit): 38.15%; Draw: 28.78%. For CF Estrela (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -18.97%E -7.74%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV +8.73%E +3.06%K +4.72%G +0.412%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 08:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.46%EV -4.09%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.32%EV -0.808%E -0.311%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.22%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 15:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.46%EV -4.09%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.32%EV -0.808%E -0.311%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.22%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 15:05
Pinnacle🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 33.05%EV -3.09%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.13%EV -3.10%E -1.22%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.82%EV -3.31%E -0.987%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 15:05
BetUS🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.80%EV -8.05%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.29%EV -3.86%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.91%EV -4.09%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.17%EV -4.62%E -1.85%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.92%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-28 15:05
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -4.62%E -1.85%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 15:04
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.62%E -1.85%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 15:05
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.62%E -1.85%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 15:05
GTbets🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.20%EV -6.07%E -2.14%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.87%EV -5.00%E -2.01%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.93%EV -6.19%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.66%EV -5.00%E -2.01%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 15:01
Marathon Bet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.42%EV -7.72%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.44%EV -5.00%E -2.01%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 15:05
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.60%EV -8.05%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.66%EV -5.39%E -2.17%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:05
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.60%EV -8.05%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.66%EV -5.39%E -2.17%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:05
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -4.09%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.88%EV -5.08%E -1.77%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Everygame🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 15:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 15:05
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 15:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 15:06
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -9.05%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 15:05
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 15:05
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 15:05
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 15:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 15:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 15:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -9.05%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 15:06
Betclic (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.59%EV -3.42%E -1.17%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.17%EV -7.29%E -3.00%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.24%EV -3.03%E -0.898%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 15:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.84%EV -4.75%E -1.65%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.92%EV -7.29%E -3.00%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 15:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.84%EV -4.75%E -1.65%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.92%EV -7.29%E -3.00%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 15:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.48%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.36%EV -7.68%E -3.17%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Bally Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 15:05
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -2.16%E -0.636%K -0.902%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 15:05
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:05
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 15:05
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 15:05
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.67%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.12%EV -9.20%E -3.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.67%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.12%EV -9.20%E -3.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.67%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.12%EV -9.20%E -3.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 15:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -9.20%E -3.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 15:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -9.20%E -3.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -10.35%E -4.40%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -9.05%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -10.35%E -4.40%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 15:05
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.84%EV -9.05%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.93%EV -11.49%E -4.95%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-28 15:05
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -12.25%E -5.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.14%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.73%EV -12.25%E -5.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.13%EV -17.13%E -5.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%15.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.98I 33.56%NM 33.46%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.21%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33%0.3%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.22%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%0.3%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.37%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.25%0.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.37%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.25%0.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Smarkets2.94I 34.01%NM 33.48%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.95%1.6%2026-02-28 15:05