L’École des cotes

AVS Futebol SAD v CF Estrela

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-28 15:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

AVS Futebol SAD (Local)

Prévision 33.07%3.02cote équitable
EV -3.09%
Avantage -1.06%
Kelly -1.60%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.93

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.14%33.33%33.05%38.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.452.812.802.9340.82%35.53%35.71%34.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

CF Estrela (Visiteur)

Prévision 38.15%2.62cote équitable
EV +8.73%
Avantage +3.06%
Kelly +4.72%
Croissance +0.412%

avec la cote maximale 2.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.75%37.93%38.19%39.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.442.452.8543.48%40.92%40.82%35.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.78%3.48cote équitable
EV -2.16%
Avantage -0.636%
Kelly -0.902%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.54%28.74%28.75%30.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.253.303.4034.72%30.72%30.30%29.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -18.97%E -7.74%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV +8.73%E +3.06%K +4.72%G +0.412%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 08:49
LowVig.ag2.90I 34.48%NM 33.46%EV -4.09%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.32%EV -0.808%E -0.311%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.22%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 15:05
BetOnline.ag2.90I 34.48%NM 33.46%EV -4.09%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.32%EV -0.808%E -0.311%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.22%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 15:05
Pinnacle2.93I 34.13%NM 33.05%EV -3.09%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.13%EV -3.10%E -1.22%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.82%EV -3.31%E -0.987%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 15:05
BetUS2.78I 35.97%NM 33.80%EV -8.05%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.29%EV -3.86%E -1.53%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Coolbet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.91%EV -4.09%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.17%EV -4.62%E -1.85%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.92%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-28 15:05
FanDuel2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -4.62%E -1.85%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 15:04
Paddy Power2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.62%E -1.85%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 15:05
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.62%E -1.85%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 15:05
GTbets2.84I 35.21%NM 33.20%EV -6.07%E -2.14%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.87%EV -5.00%E -2.01%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.93%EV -6.19%E -1.90%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Bovada2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.66%EV -5.00%E -2.01%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 15:01
Marathon Bet2.79I 35.84%NM 33.42%EV -7.72%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.44%EV -5.00%E -2.01%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 15:05
NordicBet2.78I 35.97%NM 33.60%EV -8.05%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.66%EV -5.39%E -2.17%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:05
Betsson2.78I 35.97%NM 33.60%EV -8.05%E -2.90%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.66%EV -5.39%E -2.17%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:05
DraftKings2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -4.09%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Coral2.87I 34.84%NM 32.88%EV -5.08%E -1.77%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (UK)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Fanatics2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Everygame2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 15:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 15:05
Neds2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 15:05
Betr (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 15:06
Tipico (DE)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Sky Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -9.05%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 15:05
Bet Right2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 15:05
888sport2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 15:05
William Hill2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 15:04
Mr Green (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 15:05
888sport (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 15:05
PMU (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -9.05%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -6.53%E -2.67%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 15:06
Betclic (FR)2.92I 34.25%NM 32.59%EV -3.42%E -1.17%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.17%EV -7.29%E -3.00%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.24%EV -3.03%E -0.898%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 15:04
Svenska Spel2.88I 34.72%NM 32.84%EV -4.75%E -1.65%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.92%EV -7.29%E -3.00%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 15:05
ATG (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 32.84%EV -4.75%E -1.65%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.92%EV -7.29%E -3.00%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 15:05
NetBet (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.48%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.36%EV -7.68%E -3.17%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Casumo2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Grosvenor2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Bally Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 15:05
betPARX2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -3.60%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Winamax (DE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -2.16%E -0.636%K -0.902%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 15:05
BetRivers2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:05
TABtouch2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 15:05
Parions Sport (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 15:05
Betway2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 15:05
BetMGM2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -8.44%E -3.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.67%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.12%EV -9.20%E -3.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.67%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.12%EV -9.20%E -3.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 15:05
Unibet (NL)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.67%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.12%EV -9.20%E -3.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 15:05
LeoVegas (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -9.20%E -3.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 15:05
LiveScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -9.20%E -3.87%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Virgin Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -10.35%E -4.40%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 15:05
Winamax (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -9.05%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -10.35%E -4.40%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 15:05
LeoVegas2.75I 36.36%NM 32.84%EV -9.05%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.93%EV -11.49%E -4.95%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -7.92%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-28 15:05
BoyleSports2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -12.25%E -5.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 32.14%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.73%EV -12.25%E -5.33%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.13%EV -17.13%E -5.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%15.2%2026-02-28 15:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.98I 33.56%NM 33.46%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.21%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33%0.3%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.22%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%0.3%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.37%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.25%0.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.98I 33.56%NM 33.37%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.25%0.6%2026-02-28 15:05
Smarkets2.94I 34.01%NM 33.48%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.95%1.6%2026-02-28 15:05