La scuola delle quote

Arouca v Tondela

Inizio: 2026-05-16 17:00 UTC

Finale: Arouca 3–1 Tondela

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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59 bookmaker (20 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Arouca (Casa)

Previsione 31.55%3.17quota equa
EV -0.316%
Vantaggio -0.100%
Kelly -0.146%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.16

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
30.05%31.44%31.52%32.30%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
2.802.993.003.1635.71%33.47%33.33%31.65%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Tondela (Trasferta)

Previsione 40.92%2.44quota equa
EV -1.39%
Vantaggio -0.576%
Kelly -0.985%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.41

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
39.94%41.14%40.95%43.86%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
2.062.222.252.4148.54%45.07%44.44%41.49%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 27.54%3.63quota equa
EV -0.867%
Vantaggio -0.241%
Kelly -0.334%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.60

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
25.78%27.42%27.53%28.57%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
3.003.433.443.6033.33%29.14%29.07%27.78%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (59 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasa ▼TrasfertaPareggioMargineAggiornamento
1xBet3.16I 31.65%NM 30.66%EV -0.316%E -0.100%K -0.146%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.41%EV -4.25%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.93%EV -4.45%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:10
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:10
ATG (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 16:30
Svenska Spel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 16:30
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:10
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:10
betPARX3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:35
Casumo3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:30
Grosvenor3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:30
Bally Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:30
Tipico (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:55
BetMGM3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:30
GTbets3.09I 32.36%NM 30.71%EV -2.52%E -0.817%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 16:20
BetRivers3.05I 32.79%NM 30.43%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:30
TABtouch3.05I 32.79%NM 30.43%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:30
Unibet (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:30
Unibet (NL)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:30
Unibet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -14.07%E -6.70%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 16:30
LiveScore Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -14.07%E -6.70%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 16:30
Marathon Bet3.02I 33.11%NM 30.91%EV -4.73%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -6.93%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 16:55
Pinnacle3.00I 33.33%NM 32.08%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.94%EV -1.39%E -0.576%K -0.985%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.98%EV -5.27%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-16 16:50
Coolbet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-16 16:19
LowVig.ag3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.14%EV -3.43%E -1.46%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:55
BetOnline.ag3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.14%EV -3.43%E -1.46%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:55
DraftKings3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.10%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 16:55
Fanatics3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 16:50
Bovada3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 16:52
BetUS3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 16:55
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:54
PMU (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -14.89%E -7.16%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 16:30
Virgin Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -14.89%E -7.16%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 16:30
NordicBet2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.01%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Betsson2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.01%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Unibet (UK)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:45
FanDuel2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:44
Betr (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 16:15
Bet Right2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:15
PointsBet (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 16:15
LeoVegas2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.57%EV -15.71%E -7.63%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-16 16:30
PlayUp2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 16:55
SportsBet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 16:45
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 16:45
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Unibet (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 16:44
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -9.15%E -3.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:45
Bet Victor2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -9.15%E -3.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 16:55
betfred_uk2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -9.15%E -3.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 16:15
Betclic (FR)2.87I 34.84%NM 32.09%EV -9.46%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.58%EV -7.12%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.33%EV -7.20%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 16:43
Winamax (DE)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.04%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 16:45
NetBet (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-16 16:50
BoyleSports2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -11.67%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 16:34
Winamax (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -11.67%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -11.67%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -14.07%E -6.70%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -17.39%E -5.80%K -8.69%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-16 16:45
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Smarkets3.40I 29.41%NM 29.75%2.40I 41.67%NM 42.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 28.10%-1.1%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%1.0%2026-05-16 16:45
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%1.4%2026-05-16 16:55
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.16%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-05-16 16:55