L’École des cotes

Arouca v Tondela

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-16 17:00 UTC

Score final : Arouca 3–1 Tondela

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Arouca (Local)

Prévision 31.55%3.17cote équitable
EV -0.316%
Avantage -0.100%
Kelly -0.146%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.16

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.05%31.44%31.52%32.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.802.993.003.1635.71%33.47%33.33%31.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Tondela (Visiteur)

Prévision 40.92%2.44cote équitable
EV -1.39%
Avantage -0.576%
Kelly -0.985%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.41

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.94%41.14%40.95%43.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.062.222.252.4148.54%45.07%44.44%41.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.54%3.63cote équitable
EV -0.867%
Avantage -0.241%
Kelly -0.334%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.78%27.42%27.53%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.433.443.6033.33%29.14%29.07%27.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet3.16I 31.65%NM 30.66%EV -0.316%E -0.100%K -0.146%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.41%EV -4.25%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.93%EV -4.45%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:10
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:10
ATG (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 16:30
Svenska Spel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 16:30
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:10
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:10
betPARX3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:35
Casumo3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:30
Grosvenor3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:30
Bally Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:30
Tipico (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:55
BetMGM3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:30
GTbets3.09I 32.36%NM 30.71%EV -2.52%E -0.817%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 16:20
BetRivers3.05I 32.79%NM 30.43%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:30
TABtouch3.05I 32.79%NM 30.43%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:30
Unibet (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:30
Unibet (NL)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:30
Unibet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -14.07%E -6.70%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 16:30
LiveScore Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -14.07%E -6.70%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 16:30
Marathon Bet3.02I 33.11%NM 30.91%EV -4.73%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -6.93%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 16:55
Pinnacle3.00I 33.33%NM 32.08%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.94%EV -1.39%E -0.576%K -0.985%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.98%EV -5.27%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-16 16:50
Coolbet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-16 16:19
LowVig.ag3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.14%EV -3.43%E -1.46%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:55
BetOnline.ag3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.14%EV -3.43%E -1.46%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:55
DraftKings3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.10%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 16:55
Fanatics3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 16:50
Bovada3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 16:52
BetUS3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 16:55
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:54
PMU (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -14.89%E -7.16%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 16:30
Virgin Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -14.89%E -7.16%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 16:30
NordicBet2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.01%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Betsson2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.01%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Unibet (UK)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:45
FanDuel2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:44
Betr (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 16:15
Bet Right2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:15
PointsBet (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 16:15
LeoVegas2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.57%EV -15.71%E -7.63%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-16 16:30
PlayUp2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 16:55
SportsBet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 16:45
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 16:45
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Unibet (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 16:44
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -9.15%E -3.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:45
Bet Victor2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -9.15%E -3.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 16:55
betfred_uk2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -9.15%E -3.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 16:15
Betclic (FR)2.87I 34.84%NM 32.09%EV -9.46%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.58%EV -7.12%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.33%EV -7.20%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 16:43
Winamax (DE)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.04%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 16:45
NetBet (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-16 16:50
BoyleSports2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -11.67%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 16:34
Winamax (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -11.67%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -11.67%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -14.07%E -6.70%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -17.39%E -5.80%K -8.69%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-16 16:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets3.40I 29.41%NM 29.75%2.40I 41.67%NM 42.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 28.10%-1.1%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%1.0%2026-05-16 16:45
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%1.4%2026-05-16 16:55
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.16%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-05-16 16:55