La escuela de los momios

Arouca v Tondela

Inicio: 2026-05-16 17:00 UTC

Final: Arouca 3–1 Tondela

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Arouca (Local)

Predicción 31.55%3.17momio equitativo
EV -0.316%
Ventaja -0.100%
Kelly -0.146%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.16

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.05%31.44%31.52%32.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.802.993.003.1635.71%33.47%33.33%31.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Tondela (Visitante)

Predicción 40.92%2.44momio equitativo
EV -1.39%
Ventaja -0.576%
Kelly -0.985%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.41

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.94%41.14%40.95%43.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.062.222.252.4148.54%45.07%44.44%41.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.54%3.63momio equitativo
EV -0.867%
Ventaja -0.241%
Kelly -0.334%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.78%27.42%27.53%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.433.443.6033.33%29.14%29.07%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.16I 31.65%NM 30.66%EV -0.316%E -0.100%K -0.146%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.41%EV -4.25%E -1.82%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.93%EV -4.45%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:10
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:10
ATG (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 16:30
Svenska Spel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 16:30
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:10
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:10
betPARX3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:35
Casumo3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:30
Grosvenor3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:30
Bally Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.77%EV -12.44%E -5.81%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:30
Tipico (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 16:55
BetMGM3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -2.21%E -0.712%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:30
GTbets3.09I 32.36%NM 30.71%EV -2.52%E -0.817%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 16:20
BetRivers3.05I 32.79%NM 30.43%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:30
TABtouch3.05I 32.79%NM 30.43%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:30
Unibet (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:30
Unibet (NL)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:30
Unibet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -14.07%E -6.70%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 16:30
LiveScore Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -3.79%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -14.07%E -6.70%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 16:30
Marathon Bet3.02I 33.11%NM 30.91%EV -4.73%E -1.57%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -6.93%E -2.05%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 16:55
Pinnacle3.00I 33.33%NM 32.08%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.94%EV -1.39%E -0.576%K -0.985%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.98%EV -5.27%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-16 16:50
Coolbet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -0.867%E -0.241%K -0.334%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-16 16:19
LowVig.ag3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.14%EV -3.43%E -1.46%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:55
BetOnline.ag3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.14%EV -3.43%E -1.46%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:55
DraftKings3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.10%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 16:55
Fanatics3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 16:50
Bovada3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 16:52
BetUS3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 16:55
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 16:55
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 16:54
PMU (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -14.89%E -7.16%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 16:30
Virgin Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -5.36%E -1.79%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -14.89%E -7.16%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 16:30
NordicBet2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.01%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Betsson2.98I 33.56%NM 31.28%EV -5.99%E -2.01%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:55
Unibet (UK)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:45
FanDuel2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:44
Betr (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 16:15
Bet Right2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 16:15
PointsBet (AU)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 16:15
LeoVegas2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -6.94%E -2.35%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.57%EV -15.71%E -7.63%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-16 16:30
PlayUp2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -6.71%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 16:55
SportsBet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 16:45
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 16:45
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 16:55
Unibet (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -8.52%E -2.94%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -12.03%E -5.59%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-16 16:44
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -9.15%E -3.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 16:45
Bet Victor2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -9.15%E -3.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 16:55
betfred_uk2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -9.15%E -3.18%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 16:15
Betclic (FR)2.87I 34.84%NM 32.09%EV -9.46%E -3.30%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.58%EV -7.12%E -3.14%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.33%EV -7.20%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 16:43
Winamax (DE)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.04%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 16:45
NetBet (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -10.09%E -3.54%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-16 16:50
BoyleSports2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -11.67%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 16:34
Winamax (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -11.67%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -6.37%E -1.87%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -11.67%E -4.17%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -14.07%E -6.70%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -17.39%E -5.80%K -8.69%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-16 16:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets3.40I 29.41%NM 29.75%2.40I 41.67%NM 42.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 28.10%-1.1%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-05-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%1.0%2026-05-16 16:45
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%1.4%2026-05-16 16:55
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.16%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-05-16 16:55