La escuela de los momios

Arouca v Nacional

Inicio: 2026-02-21 15:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Arouca (Local)

Predicción 43.45%2.30momio equitativo
EV -3.54%
Ventaja -1.60%
Kelly -2.90%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.22

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.35%43.47%43.47%45.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.152.152.2250.00%46.48%46.51%45.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Nacional (Visitante)

Predicción 28.38%3.52momio equitativo
EV -0.678%
Ventaja -0.194%
Kelly -0.271%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.76%28.38%28.37%29.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.253.253.5033.33%30.81%30.77%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.17%3.55momio equitativo
EV -1.40%
Ventaja -0.399%
Kelly -0.559%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.20%28.14%28.16%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.303.303.5034.72%30.26%30.30%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.22I 45.05%NM 43.72%EV -3.54%E -1.60%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%EV -1.40%E -0.399%K -0.559%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-21 15:20
BetOnline.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.72%EV -3.54%E -1.60%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%EV -0.678%E -0.194%K -0.271%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-21 15:15
LowVig.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.72%EV -3.54%E -1.60%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%EV -0.678%E -0.194%K -0.271%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-21 15:15
Pinnacle2.21I 45.25%NM 43.77%EV -3.98%E -1.80%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.12%EV -2.38%E -0.692%K -0.976%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.12%EV -3.09%E -0.897%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 15:25
Coolbet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 15:10
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 14:35
Svenska Spel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -10.61%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 15:10
ATG (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -10.61%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 15:10
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -10.61%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:10
Casumo2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -10.61%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:10
betPARX2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -10.61%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:10
Bally Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -4.41%E -2.00%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -10.61%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:10
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -5.28%E -2.42%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 15:15
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.71%EV -5.28%E -2.42%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.65%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 15:14
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -5.28%E -2.42%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 15:10
TABtouch2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -5.28%E -2.42%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 15:10
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -5.28%E -2.42%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 15:10
Unibet (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -5.28%E -2.42%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 15:10
BetRivers2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -5.28%E -2.42%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 15:10
Bovada2.17I 46.08%NM 43.38%EV -5.71%E -2.63%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -4.94%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 15:25
LeoVegas2.17I 46.08%NM 42.42%EV -5.71%E -2.63%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 15:10
LiveScore Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.42%EV -5.71%E -2.63%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.42%EV -5.71%E -2.63%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 15:10
GTbets2.16I 46.30%NM 43.64%EV -6.15%E -2.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.22%EV -5.22%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 15:25
BetUS2.16I 46.30%NM 43.49%EV -6.15%E -2.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -4.94%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 15:19
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -4.94%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 15:00
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 15:05
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:05
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:05
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:05
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 15:20
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 15:25
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-21 15:05
PointsBet (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-21 15:05
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-21 15:15
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 15:15
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 15:15
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 15:15
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 15:15
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.58%E -3.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 15:23
Marathon Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.61%EV -7.02%E -3.28%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.11%EV -5.79%E -1.74%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 15:25
Virgin Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 42.55%EV -7.02%E -3.28%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -13.45%E -4.41%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-21 15:10
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 14:50
Betclic (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.11%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.24%EV -6.92%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 15:05
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 15:25
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.85%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 15:20
Parions Sport (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-21 15:05
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 15:05
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.76%E -4.17%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 15:05
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 43.79%EV -10.06%E -4.86%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -9.19%E -2.87%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -8.44%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-21 15:15
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -0.678%E -0.194%K -0.271%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 15:05
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -7.03%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-21 15:05
PMU (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.93%E -5.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.19%E -2.87%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-21 15:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -13.10%E -6.55%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -14.87%E -4.96%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -18.86%E -6.55%K -10.03%G +0.000%18.1%2026-02-21 15:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 43.97%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%0.6%2026-02-21 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.80%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70%1.0%2026-02-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.80%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70%1.0%2026-02-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.80%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70%1.0%2026-02-21 15:25
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 44.06%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.17%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.77%2.2%2026-02-21 15:25