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Arouca v CS Maritimo

2026-08-29 14:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arouca (Local)

Prediction 39.25%2.55fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.75%39.18%39.26%40.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.372.402.4545.45%42.24%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CS Maritimo (Visit)

Prediction 31.52%3.17fair odd
EV +0.878%
Edge +0.274%
Kelly +0.399%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.21%31.53%31.52%33.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.902.903.2037.04%34.43%34.48%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.23%3.42fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%29.29%29.23%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.173.3033.33%31.68%31.55%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Arouca (Local): 39.25%; CS Maritimo (Visit): 31.52%; Draw: 29.23%. For CS Maritimo (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.20, producing a positive expected value of +0.878%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -9.73%E -4.23%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV +0.878%E +0.274%K +0.399%G +0.004%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -9.39%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-24 17:24
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.72%EV -5.81%E -2.42%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.95%EV -2.90%E -0.943%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.33%EV -5.01%E -1.54%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-24 18:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.20%EV -6.59%E -2.77%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -4.80%E -1.59%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.90%EV -8.81%E -2.82%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 17:24
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.81%E -2.42%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.43%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -12.32%E -4.11%K -6.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-24 17:29
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.81%E -2.42%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.43%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -12.32%E -4.11%K -6.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-24 17:34
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.81%E -2.42%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.43%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -12.32%E -4.11%K -6.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-24 17:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.81%E -2.42%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.43%E -1.81%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -12.32%E -4.11%K -6.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-24 17:29
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.95%EV -5.81%E -2.42%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.37%EV -6.06%E -2.03%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -7.93%E -2.52%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-24 18:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.95%EV -5.81%E -2.42%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.37%EV -6.06%E -2.03%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -7.93%E -2.52%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-24 18:59
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.82%EV -8.95%E -3.86%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -6.47%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-24 17:24
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.82%EV -8.95%E -3.86%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -7.00%E -2.37%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -6.47%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-24 17:24
GTbets🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%EV -3.84%E -1.57%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.30%EV -7.95%E -2.72%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.20%EV -5.59%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-24 15:09
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.81%E -2.42%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.55%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-24 14:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -3.84%E -1.57%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.47%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-24 17:20
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.73%E -4.23%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.47%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 18:49
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.73%E -4.23%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.47%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 17:24
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.52%EV -9.73%E -4.23%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.13%EV -8.81%E -2.82%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-24 17:28
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.52%EV -9.73%E -4.23%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.13%EV -8.81%E -2.82%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-24 17:29
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.73%E -4.23%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -8.58%E -2.96%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.32%E -4.11%K -6.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-24 17:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -3.84%E -1.57%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%EV -9.21%E -3.20%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -3.55%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-24 14:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.83%EV -10.52%E -4.61%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -9.21%E -3.20%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.64%EV -7.35%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-24 14:33
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -3.84%E -1.57%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -10.16%E -3.56%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.55%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 14:29
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -3.84%E -1.57%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -10.16%E -3.56%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.01%E -1.54%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-24 14:29
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -3.84%E -1.57%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -10.16%E -3.56%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.47%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 14:29
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -3.84%E -1.57%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -10.16%E -3.56%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.47%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 14:33
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -3.84%E -1.57%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -10.16%E -3.56%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.47%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 14:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.73%E -4.23%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -10.16%E -3.56%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.39%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-24 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -13.66%E -6.21%K -11.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.11%EV -10.16%E -3.56%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -9.39%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-24 17:19
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -5.81%E -2.42%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -11.73%E -4.19%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -5.01%E -1.54%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-24 14:34
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -5.81%E -2.42%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -11.73%E -4.19%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.47%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-24 14:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.96%EV -9.73%E -4.23%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -13.31%E -4.84%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.93%E -2.52%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-24 17:19
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -6.59%E -2.77%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -14.88%E -5.51%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.39%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-24 14:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.08%EV -11.69%E -5.20%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -14.88%E -5.51%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -9.39%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-24 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%7.1%2026-08-24 18:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.76%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%7.1%2026-08-24 18:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 34.93%2.66I 37.59%NM 31.78%2.54I 39.37%NM 33.28%18.3%2026-08-24 18:19
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 36.78%2.58I 38.76%NM 31.36%2.54I 39.37%NM 31.86%23.6%2026-08-24 17:49