L’École des cotes

Alverca v Estoril

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-10 19:30 UTC

Score final : Alverca 1–1 Estoril

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Alverca (Local)

Prévision 35.81%2.79cote équitable
EV -2.23%
Avantage -0.817%
Kelly -1.29%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.73

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.24%35.91%35.74%37.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.382.562.602.7342.02%39.08%38.46%36.63%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Estoril (Visiteur)

Prévision 37.53%2.66cote équitable
EV -1.29%
Avantage -0.489%
Kelly -0.789%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.63

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.42%37.47%37.55%38.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.502.502.6343.48%39.93%40.00%38.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.65%3.75cote équitable
EV -0.049%
Avantage -0.013%
Kelly -0.018%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.37%26.61%26.71%28.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.493.503.7533.33%28.63%28.57%26.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle2.73I 36.63%NM 35.27%EV -2.23%E -0.817%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.21%EV -5.42%E -2.15%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -3.25%E -0.895%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-10 19:20
1xBet2.71I 36.90%NM 35.73%EV -2.95%E -1.09%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -3.16%E -1.23%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.75%EV -3.51%E -0.971%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-10 19:20
LowVig.ag2.68I 37.31%NM 35.13%EV -4.02%E -1.50%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.97%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 19:14
BetOnline.ag2.68I 37.31%NM 35.13%EV -4.02%E -1.50%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.97%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 19:14
Bovada2.67I 37.45%NM 35.30%EV -4.38%E -1.64%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.16%EV -7.29%E -2.95%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-10 19:20
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.10%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 18:35
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.10%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 19:13
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -5.10%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 19:14
Tipico (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -5.10%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 19:20
PlayUp2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.10%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 19:25
BetUS2.64I 37.88%NM 35.66%EV -5.45%E -2.07%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.81%EV -6.54%E -2.63%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 19:24
Marathon Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -5.81%E -2.21%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.44%EV -6.54%E -2.63%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -8.31%E -2.42%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 19:24
Coral2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 18:34
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-10 19:14
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-10 19:14
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 19:15
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 19:14
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.04%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 19:14
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.04%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 19:15
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.04%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 19:14
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.04%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 19:14
DraftKings2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 19:08
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 18:59
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 19:19
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.70%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 19:13
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 18:34
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 18:35
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 18:35
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 19:20
GTbets2.58I 38.76%NM 36.49%EV -7.60%E -2.95%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.21%EV -5.04%E -1.99%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.30%EV -4.58%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 18:38
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -8.68%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -0.049%E -0.013%K -0.018%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 18:39
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -8.68%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 18:39
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -8.68%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 19:23
NetBet (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -8.68%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 19:14
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -2.71%E -0.744%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 18:39
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 18:39
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 18:34
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-10 18:39
Unibet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-10 19:04
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -13.67%E -5.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-10 19:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -13.67%E -5.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -20.04%E -6.68%K -10.02%G +0.000%16.8%2026-05-10 19:14
Grosvenor2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:25
Casumo2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:24
Svenska Spel2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:25
betPARX2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:23
Bally Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:24
ATG (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:24
TABtouch2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 19:09
BetRivers2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 19:05
Unibet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.30%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.27%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-10 19:04
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -12.26%E -5.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 19:25
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -12.26%E -5.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 19:24
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.62%EV -12.26%E -5.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-10 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -12.98%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 19:24
LiveScore Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -12.98%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 19:24
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -14.05%E -5.85%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-10 19:24
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -14.05%E -5.85%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-10 19:24
LeoVegas2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -14.77%E -6.20%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-10 19:24
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-05-10 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.26%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-05-10 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.26%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-05-10 19:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.26%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-05-10 19:25
Smarkets2.72I 36.76%NM 36.03%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.12%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-05-10 19:25
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.1%2026-05-10 19:25