La escuela de los momios

Alverca v Estoril

Inicio: 2026-05-10 19:30 UTC

Final: Alverca 1–1 Estoril

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Alverca (Local)

Predicción 35.81%2.79momio equitativo
EV -2.23%
Ventaja -0.817%
Kelly -1.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.24%35.91%35.74%37.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.382.562.602.7342.02%39.08%38.46%36.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Estoril (Visitante)

Predicción 37.53%2.66momio equitativo
EV -1.29%
Ventaja -0.489%
Kelly -0.789%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.42%37.47%37.55%38.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.502.502.6343.48%39.93%40.00%38.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.65%3.75momio equitativo
EV -0.049%
Ventaja -0.013%
Kelly -0.018%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.37%26.61%26.71%28.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.493.503.7533.33%28.63%28.57%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.73I 36.63%NM 35.27%EV -2.23%E -0.817%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.21%EV -5.42%E -2.15%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -3.25%E -0.895%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-10 19:20
1xBet2.71I 36.90%NM 35.73%EV -2.95%E -1.09%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -3.16%E -1.23%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.75%EV -3.51%E -0.971%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-10 19:20
LowVig.ag2.68I 37.31%NM 35.13%EV -4.02%E -1.50%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.97%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 19:14
BetOnline.ag2.68I 37.31%NM 35.13%EV -4.02%E -1.50%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.97%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 19:14
Bovada2.67I 37.45%NM 35.30%EV -4.38%E -1.64%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.16%EV -7.29%E -2.95%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-10 19:20
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -5.10%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 18:35
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.10%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 19:13
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -5.10%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 19:14
Tipico (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -5.10%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 19:20
PlayUp2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.10%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 19:25
BetUS2.64I 37.88%NM 35.66%EV -5.45%E -2.07%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.81%EV -6.54%E -2.63%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 19:24
Marathon Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -5.81%E -2.21%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.44%EV -6.54%E -2.63%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -8.31%E -2.42%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 19:24
Coral2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 18:34
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-10 19:14
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-10 19:14
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 19:15
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 19:14
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.04%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 19:14
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.04%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 19:15
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.04%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 19:14
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.17%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.04%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 19:14
DraftKings2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 19:08
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 18:59
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 19:19
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.70%EV -6.92%E -2.79%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 19:13
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 18:34
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 18:35
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 18:35
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -6.89%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 19:20
GTbets2.58I 38.76%NM 36.49%EV -7.60%E -2.95%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.21%EV -5.04%E -1.99%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.30%EV -4.58%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 18:38
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -8.68%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -0.049%E -0.013%K -0.018%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 18:39
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -8.68%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 18:39
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -8.68%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 19:23
NetBet (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -8.68%E -3.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 19:14
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.24%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -2.71%E -0.744%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 18:39
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 18:39
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.04%E -3.28%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 18:34
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -4.05%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-10 18:39
Unibet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-10 19:04
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -13.67%E -5.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-10 19:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -10.47%E -4.19%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -13.67%E -5.94%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -20.04%E -6.68%K -10.02%G +0.000%16.8%2026-05-10 19:14
Grosvenor2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:25
Casumo2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:24
Svenska Spel2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:25
betPARX2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:23
Bally Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:24
ATG (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.86%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -1.29%E -0.489%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:24
TABtouch2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 19:09
BetRivers2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.83%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 19:05
Unibet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.30%EV -11.18%E -4.51%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.27%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-10 19:04
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -12.26%E -5.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 19:25
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -12.26%E -5.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 19:24
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.62%EV -12.26%E -5.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%EV -9.92%E -4.13%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-10 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -12.98%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 19:24
LiveScore Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -12.98%E -5.34%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -2.41%E -0.928%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 19:24
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -14.05%E -5.85%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-10 19:24
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 37.92%EV -14.05%E -5.85%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -4.29%E -1.68%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -8.04%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-10 19:24
LeoVegas2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -14.77%E -6.20%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -6.17%E -2.47%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -9.38%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-10 19:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-05-10 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.26%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-05-10 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.26%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-05-10 19:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.26%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-05-10 19:25
Smarkets2.72I 36.76%NM 36.03%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.12%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-05-10 19:25
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.1%2026-05-10 19:25