Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Widzew Łódź v Motor Lublin

Inicio: 2026-07-26 15:30 UTC

Final: Widzew Łódź 2–2 Motor Lublin

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Widzew Łódź (Local)

Predicción 52.98%1.89momio equitativo
EV -2.52%
Ventaja -1.37%
Kelly -3.00%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.84

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.22%53.10%52.92%56.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.571.711.721.8463.69%58.35%58.14%54.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Motor Lublin (Visitante)

Predicción 21.43%4.67momio equitativo
EV +7.16%
Ventaja +1.43%
Kelly +1.79%
Crecimiento +0.128%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.64%21.29%21.55%23.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.394.355.0025.00%22.80%22.99%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.59%3.91momio equitativo
EV -2.25%
Ventaja -0.589%
Kelly -0.798%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.52%25.61%25.53%26.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.603.603.8230.30%27.81%27.78%26.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Widzew Łódź (Local): 52.98%; Motor Lublin (Visitante): 21.43%; Empate: 25.59%. Para Motor Lublin (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.67. 12 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +7.16%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.83%EV -13.11%E -8.00%K -20.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV +7.16%E +1.43%K +1.79%G +0.128%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -2.76%E -0.727%K -0.987%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 15:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.62%EV -10.99%E -6.54%K -16.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV +2.87%E +0.599%K +0.757%G +0.022%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 15:25
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.62%EV -10.99%E -6.54%K -16.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV +2.87%E +0.599%K +0.757%G +0.022%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.62%EV -10.99%E -6.54%K -16.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV +2.87%E +0.599%K +0.757%G +0.022%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.62%EV -10.99%E -6.54%K -16.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV +2.87%E +0.599%K +0.757%G +0.022%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 15:25
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -11.52%E -6.90%K -17.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV +2.87%E +0.599%K +0.757%G +0.022%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 15:25
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -11.52%E -6.90%K -17.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV +2.87%E +0.599%K +0.757%G +0.022%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 15:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -11.52%E -6.90%K -17.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV +2.87%E +0.599%K +0.757%G +0.022%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 15:25
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -11.52%E -6.90%K -17.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV +2.87%E +0.599%K +0.757%G +0.022%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 15:24
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -12.58%E -7.63%K -19.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV +1.80%E +0.380%K +0.481%G +0.009%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.32%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 15:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.76%EV -13.64%E -8.37%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV +0.732%E +0.156%K +0.198%G +0.001%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -6.60%E -1.81%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 15:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.76%EV -13.64%E -8.37%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV +0.732%E +0.156%K +0.198%G +0.001%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -6.60%E -1.81%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 15:25
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.15%EV -9.41%E -5.50%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -1.41%E -0.307%K -0.392%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-26 15:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -14.70%E -9.13%K -24.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -1.41%E -0.307%K -0.392%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-26 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.71%EV -7.29%E -4.16%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -3.55%E -0.790%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.32%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 05:14
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.85%EV -7.82%E -4.49%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -3.55%E -0.790%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.32%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 05:09
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -8.35%E -4.82%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -3.55%E -0.790%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 15:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.37%EV -8.88%E -5.16%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -3.55%E -0.790%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 15:21
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.83%EV -16.82%E -10.72%K -29.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -3.55%E -0.790%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.69%EV -9.16%E -2.58%K -3.59%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-26 15:25
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.81%EV -3.58%E -1.97%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.55%EV -4.41%E -0.989%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.63%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-26 15:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.28%EV -7.82%E -4.49%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.83%EV -4.63%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.89%EV -8.39%E -2.34%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 15:25
BetUS🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.54%EV -7.29%E -4.16%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.20%EV -5.27%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.26%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 15:10
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -4.64%E -2.58%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -5.70%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -4.04%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-26 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.71%EV -5.17%E -2.89%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.44%EV -5.70%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -6.60%E -1.81%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 15:25
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -9.94%E -5.84%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -5.70%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -13.00%E -3.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 15:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -9.94%E -5.84%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -5.70%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -13.00%E -3.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-26 15:15
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.39%EV -8.88%E -5.16%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.11%EV -6.77%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 05:14
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.39%EV -8.88%E -5.16%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.11%EV -6.77%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 05:15
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.49%EV -4.64%E -2.58%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -7.84%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.32%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 15:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.26%EV -5.17%E -2.89%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -7.84%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.98%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 15:25
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -4.64%E -2.58%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -7.84%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 15:04
Codere (IT)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.25%EV -8.88%E -5.16%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30%EV -7.84%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-26 05:15
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.36%EV -6.76%E -3.84%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.68%EV -8.91%E -2.10%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -9.16%E -2.58%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 15:14
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.29%E -4.16%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 15:25
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.35%E -4.82%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-26 15:15
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.29%E -4.16%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-26 15:20
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.29%E -4.16%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-26 15:19
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.90%EV -9.94%E -5.84%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 05:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.90%EV -9.94%E -5.84%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 05:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.49%EV -12.05%E -7.26%K -18.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-26 15:05
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -9.94%E -5.84%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.56%E -4.71%K -6.76%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-26 15:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.24%EV -12.05%E -7.26%K -18.26%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.29%EV -11.06%E -2.66%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.47%EV -11.21%E -3.23%K -4.54%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-26 15:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.90%EV -7.29%E -4.16%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -12.13%E -2.96%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.36%EV -9.94%E -5.84%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -12.13%E -2.96%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -5.32%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 05:14
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.22%EV -6.23%E -3.52%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -12.13%E -2.96%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -13.00%E -3.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-26 15:25
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.59%EV -2.52%E -1.37%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.56%EV -13.63%E -3.38%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.85%EV -2.25%E -0.589%K -0.798%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 15:21
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.29%E -4.16%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 15:21
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.29%E -4.16%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 15:21
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.29%E -4.16%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 15:21
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.85%EV -8.88%E -5.16%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.85%EV -11.72%E -3.40%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-26 15:15
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -9.94%E -5.84%K -14.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-26 15:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.93%EV -12.05%E -7.26%K -18.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.18%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-26 05:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.69%EV -12.58%E -7.63%K -19.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.74%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.57%EV -13.00%E -3.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-26 15:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-07-26 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.41%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.59%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-07-26 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.41%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.59%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-07-26 15:21
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.23%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.51%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%1.6%2026-07-26 15:25
Matchbook1.85I 54.05%NM 53.23%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.51%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%1.6%2026-07-26 15:25
Smarkets1.82I 54.95%NM 53.40%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.68%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.92%2.9%2026-07-26 15:25