Language:English
Pogoń Szczecin v Motor Lublin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pogoń Szczecin (Local)
Prediction 48.03%2.08fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.23%48.14%48.02%49.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.942.0255.56%51.98%51.55%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Motor Lublin (Visit)
Prediction 25.94%3.85fair odd
EV +2.21%
Edge +0.561%
Kelly +0.752%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 3.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.06%25.81%26.03%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.523.453.9430.77%28.45%28.99%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.03%3.84fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.636%
Kelly -0.867%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%26.05%25.95%27.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.513.503.7530.30%28.53%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pogoń Szczecin (Local): 48.03%; Motor Lublin (Visit): 25.94%; Draw: 26.03%. For Motor Lublin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.94, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.25%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.37%EV +2.21%E +0.561%K +0.752%G +0.017% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.38%EV -5.25%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -8.27%E -4.33%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV +1.17%E +0.301%K +0.405%G +0.005% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 14:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -8.27%E -4.33%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -1.42%E -0.374%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -10.19%E -5.45%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -1.42%E -0.374%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 14:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -11.15%E -6.03%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -1.42%E -0.374%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 15:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.75%EV -8.75%E -4.60%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.63%EV -2.46%E -0.654%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.62%EV -9.41%E -2.71%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-08 15:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-08 14:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -6.83%E -3.52%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 15:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -6.83%E -3.52%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 15:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -9.71%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 15:27 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -9.71%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -11.15%E -6.03%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 15:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -11.15%E -6.03%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 15:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -4.01%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.12%EV -4.91%E -2.48%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 15:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 14:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -12.11%E -6.62%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-08 14:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 15:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -8.27%E -4.33%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 15:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -8.27%E -4.33%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-08 15:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.46%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-08 15:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.46%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-08 15:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -7.31%E -3.79%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 15:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -2.98%E -1.48%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 15:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 15:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 15:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 15:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 15:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 15:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -10.19%E -5.45%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 15:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -10.19%E -5.45%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 15:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.39%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.61%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.00%EV -12.80%E -3.82%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 14:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -8.75%E -4.60%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-08 15:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -8.27%E -4.33%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-08 15:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.39%EV -13.55%E -7.53%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.62%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.00%EV -12.80%E -3.82%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -5.39%E -2.73%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -13.09%E -3.91%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-08 15:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.90%EV -8.75%E -4.60%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -13.09%E -3.91%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 15:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.57%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -13.09%E -3.91%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.57%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -13.09%E -3.91%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.48%EV -9.71%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -13.09%E -3.91%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-08 15:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.81%EV -11.15%E -6.03%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 26.56%EV -13.61%E -4.09%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-08 15:23 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.25%EV -5.87%E -2.99%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.28%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-08 15:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.64%EV -9.71%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-08 15:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -11.15%E -6.03%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-08 15:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.55%EV -13.55%E -7.53%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.48%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.97%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-08-08 14:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.74%EV -9.71%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -15.69%E -4.83%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -12.80%E -3.82%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-08 15:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.48% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65% | 1.4% | 2026-08-08 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65% | 1.4% | 2026-08-08 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65% | 1.4% | 2026-08-08 15:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.31% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.16% | 1.9% | 2026-08-08 15:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49% | 2.0% | 2026-08-08 15:00 |