Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pogoń Szczecin v Motor Lublin

Inicio: 2026-08-08 15:30 UTC

Final: Pogoń Szczecin 3–1 Motor Lublin

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pogoń Szczecin (Local)

Predicción 48.03%2.08momio equitativo
EV -2.98%
Ventaja -1.48%
Kelly -2.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.23%48.14%48.02%49.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.801.921.942.0255.56%51.98%51.55%49.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Motor Lublin (Visitante)

Predicción 25.94%3.85momio equitativo
EV +2.21%
Ventaja +0.561%
Kelly +0.752%
Crecimiento +0.017%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.06%25.81%26.03%27.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.523.453.9430.77%28.45%28.99%25.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.03%3.84momio equitativo
EV -2.39%
Ventaja -0.636%
Kelly -0.867%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.59%26.05%25.95%27.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.513.503.7530.30%28.53%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Pogoń Szczecin (Local): 48.03%; Motor Lublin (Visitante): 25.94%; Empate: 26.03%. Para Motor Lublin (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.85. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.94, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.21%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.25%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.37%EV +2.21%E +0.561%K +0.752%G +0.017%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.38%EV -5.25%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 15:29
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -8.27%E -4.33%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV +1.17%E +0.301%K +0.405%G +0.005%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 14:39
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -8.27%E -4.33%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -1.42%E -0.374%K -0.507%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 15:29
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -10.19%E -5.45%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -1.42%E -0.374%K -0.507%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 14:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -11.15%E -6.03%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -1.42%E -0.374%K -0.507%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 15:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.75%EV -8.75%E -4.60%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.63%EV -2.46%E -0.654%K -0.890%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.62%EV -9.41%E -2.71%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 15:04
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 14:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -6.83%E -3.52%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 15:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -6.83%E -3.52%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 15:04
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -9.71%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 15:27
BetUS🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -9.71%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 15:29
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -11.15%E -6.03%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 15:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -11.15%E -6.03%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -2.72%E -0.725%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 15:20
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -4.01%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 15:29
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.12%EV -4.91%E -2.48%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 15:25
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 14:44
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -12.11%E -6.62%K -14.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 14:53
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 15:19
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -8.27%E -4.33%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 15:25
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 15:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 15:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 15:29
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -8.27%E -4.33%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 15:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 15:29
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 15:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 15:29
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.46%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 15:19
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.46%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 15:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -7.31%E -3.79%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -10.50%E -3.04%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 15:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -2.98%E -1.48%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 15:19
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 15:09
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 15:19
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 15:19
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 15:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -3.95%E -1.97%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 15:24
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -10.19%E -5.45%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 15:18
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -10.19%E -5.45%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 15:19
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.39%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.61%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.00%EV -12.80%E -3.82%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -8.75%E -4.60%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 15:24
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -8.27%E -4.33%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -14.10%E -4.27%K -6.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-08 15:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.39%EV -13.55%E -7.53%K -16.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.62%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.00%EV -12.80%E -3.82%K -5.45%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-08 15:29
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -5.39%E -2.73%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -13.09%E -3.91%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-08 15:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.90%EV -8.75%E -4.60%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -13.09%E -3.91%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 15:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.57%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -13.09%E -3.91%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 15:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.57%EV -6.35%E -3.25%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -13.09%E -3.91%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 15:29
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.48%EV -9.71%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -13.09%E -3.91%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 15:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.81%EV -11.15%E -6.03%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.56%EV -13.61%E -4.09%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 15:23
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.25%EV -5.87%E -2.99%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.28%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 15:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.64%EV -9.71%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-08 15:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -11.15%E -6.03%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-08 15:20
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.55%EV -13.55%E -7.53%K -16.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.48%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.97%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-08 14:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.74%EV -9.71%E -5.16%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -15.69%E -4.83%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -12.80%E -3.82%K -5.45%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-08 15:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.48%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%1.1%2026-08-08 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65%1.4%2026-08-08 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65%1.4%2026-08-08 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65%1.4%2026-08-08 15:20
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.16%1.9%2026-08-08 15:25
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-08-08 15:00