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Pogoń Szczecin v Motor Lublin
Resultado del partido
Pogoń Szczecin (Local)
Predicción 45.29%2.21momio equitativo
EV -5.34%
Ventaja -2.55%
Kelly -4.90%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.09
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.48%45.31%45.49%46.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.892.002.002.0952.91%50.01%50.00%47.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Motor Lublin (Visitante)
Predicción 27.78%3.60momio equitativo
EV -0.832%
Ventaja -0.233%
Kelly -0.324%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.57
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.48%27.70%27.78%29.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.323.383.5733.33%30.12%29.63%28.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 26.93%3.71momio equitativo
EV -4.40%
Ventaja -1.24%
Kelly -1.73%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.54%26.99%26.72%28.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.423.483.5532.79%29.23%28.78%28.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Pogoń Szczecin (Local): 45.29%; Motor Lublin (Visitante): 27.78%; Empate: 26.93%. Para Motor Lublin (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.60. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 3.57, con un valor esperado de -0.832%; no producen valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (30 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.26%EV -5.34%E -2.55%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.50%EV -0.832%E -0.233%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.24%EV -9.79%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 20:55 |
| 1xBet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.23%EV -6.70%E -3.25%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 26.54%EV -2.50%E -0.712%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-04 21:30 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -5.75%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Bovada | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -4.16%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -12.48%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-04 20:58 |
| BetUS | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -4.16%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -12.48%E -3.84%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-04 22:00 |
| Betsson | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.75%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| NordicBet | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.15%E -3.49%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.75%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.43%EV -7.60%E -3.73%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -2.78%E -0.793%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-04 21:23 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -8.51%E -4.21%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -4.40%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 05:09 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -8.51%E -4.21%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -4.40%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 05:10 |
| Unibet | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -8.51%E -4.21%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -4.40%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 05:09 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -8.51%E -4.21%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -4.40%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 05:09 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.01I 49.75%NM 44.86%EV -8.96%E -4.46%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -12.50%E -3.97%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -8.44%E -2.48%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Casumo | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -9.42%E -4.71%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.40%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 05:09 |
| Grosvenor | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -9.42%E -4.71%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.40%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 05:10 |
| BetRivers | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -9.42%E -4.71%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.40%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 05:10 |
| betPARX | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -9.42%E -4.71%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.40%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 05:08 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -9.42%E -4.71%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.40%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 05:09 |
| Betway | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -9.42%E -4.71%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-04 20:55 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.15%EV -10.32%E -5.21%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -15.28%E -5.01%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.54%EV -5.75%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -10.77%E -5.47%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -5.75%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-04 20:55 |
| TABtouch | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.49%EV -10.77%E -5.47%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -6.94%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -5.75%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-04 05:09 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.48%EV -10.77%E -5.47%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 26.80%EV -9.17%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.73%EV -17.86%E -5.86%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-08-04 20:53 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.25%EV -11.23%E -5.73%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -8.33%E -2.52%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.28%EV -7.09%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-04 08:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.25%EV -11.23%E -5.73%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -8.33%E -2.52%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.28%EV -7.09%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-04 05:09 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 44.85%EV -11.23%E -5.73%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.30%EV -16.67%E -5.56%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -8.44%E -2.48%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.38%EV -11.68%E -5.99%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -8.33%E -2.52%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -7.09%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-04 05:09 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 44.93%EV -12.59%E -6.52%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.10%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.97%EV -16.52%E -5.33%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-08-04 21:24 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.43%EV -13.04%E -6.79%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.14%EV -13.89%E -4.48%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.43%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-04 17:15 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.41%EV -14.40%E -7.62%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.41%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.18%EV -9.79%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-04 05:09 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (1)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40% | 2.1% | 2026-08-04 19:20 |