Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Piast Gliwice v Wieczysta Kraków

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:30 UTC

Final: Piast Gliwice 3–4 Wieczysta Kraków

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Piast Gliwice (Local)

Prediction 42.44%2.36fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.46%42.51%42.40%43.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.152.152.2649.50%46.61%46.51%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wieczysta Kraków (Visit)

Prediction 30.83%3.24fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -0.607%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.12%30.82%30.77%31.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.023.003.2036.36%33.14%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.73%3.74fair odd
EV +0.227%
Edge +0.061%
Kelly +0.083%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.39%26.67%26.82%28.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.413.403.7530.77%29.31%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Piast Gliwice (Local): 42.44%; Wieczysta Kraków (Visit): 30.83%; Draw: 26.73%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.227%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.89%EV -7.90%E -3.64%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV +0.227%E +0.061%K +0.083%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 15:19
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.76%EV -4.51%E -2.00%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.74%EV -3.49%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.50%EV -2.98%E -0.821%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 15:25
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.78%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 14:55
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -3.78%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 14:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -5.78%E -2.60%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -5.96%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.45%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 15:24
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -5.78%E -2.60%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -5.96%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.45%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 15:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -5.96%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.45%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 15:24
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -9.04%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -6.45%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 12:58
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.45%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 15:19
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.45%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 15:23
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.45%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 15:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -6.45%E -1.84%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 15:20
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -9.18%E -4.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.79%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 14:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -9.18%E -4.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.79%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 15:00
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -9.18%E -4.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.79%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 15:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -9.18%E -4.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.79%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 14:59
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -9.18%E -4.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.79%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 15:00
betPARX🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -9.18%E -4.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.79%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 14:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -9.18%E -4.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.79%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 15:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -9.18%E -4.29%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.34%E -0.418%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.79%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 14:59
Bovada🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -7.90%E -3.64%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.79%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 15:22
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.29%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -7.79%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 12:59
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -4.51%E -2.00%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 15:24
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 13:04
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 14:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 14:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 15:00
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 15:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.99%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.46%EV -11.51%E -4.01%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 12:54
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.99%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.46%EV -11.51%E -4.01%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 12:55
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 15:20
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -13.00%E -6.34%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -15.21%E -5.53%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -9.13%E -2.68%K -3.80%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-15 15:10
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.03%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.87%EV -1.95%E -0.614%K -0.896%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.10%EV -9.66%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 15:24
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -10.46%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:00
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -10.46%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 41.73%EV -7.06%E -3.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.98%EV -9.04%E -3.07%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -10.46%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 13:04
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.40%EV -8.75%E -4.07%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -10.46%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-15 15:24
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -11.72%E -5.64%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -10.46%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 15:00
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.63%E -3.01%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -4.42%E -1.43%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -11.80%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 15:24
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.80%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 15:23
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -7.50%E -2.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.80%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 15:24
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.48%EV -12.57%E -6.10%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -5.96%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -11.80%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 15:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.18%EV -14.27%E -7.06%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.39%EV -11.51%E -4.01%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.43%EV -11.80%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-15 15:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.26%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.14%EV -12.60%E -3.85%K -5.55%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-15 15:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.54%EV -13.42%E -6.58%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.12%EV -5.96%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -13.14%E -4.04%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 15:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.54%EV -13.42%E -6.58%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.12%EV -5.96%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -13.14%E -4.04%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 15:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.54%EV -13.42%E -6.58%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.12%EV -5.96%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -13.14%E -4.04%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 15:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.54%EV -13.42%E -6.58%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.12%EV -5.96%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -13.14%E -4.04%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 15:20
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -10.88%E -5.18%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -10.59%E -3.65%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.14%E -4.04%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 15:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-08-15 15:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-08-15 15:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-08-15 15:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-08-15 15:25
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-08-15 15:24
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-08-15 14:55