Idioma:Español
Motor Lublin v Legia Warszawa
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Motor Lublin (Local)
Predicción 25.42%3.93momio equitativo
EV -0.868%
Ventaja -0.222%
Kelly -0.299%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.63%25.38%25.41%26.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.553.553.9030.30%28.14%28.17%25.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Legia Warszawa (Visitante)
Predicción 48.66%2.06momio equitativo
EV -5.12%
Ventaja -2.62%
Kelly -5.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.09%48.67%48.68%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.751.891.901.9557.14%52.82%52.63%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 25.92%3.86momio equitativo
EV -2.79%
Ventaja -0.743%
Kelly -1.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.00%25.95%25.90%27.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.333.543.553.7530.03%28.27%28.17%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Motor Lublin (Local): 25.42%; Legia Warszawa (Visitante): 48.66%; Empate: 25.92%. Para Motor Lublin (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.93. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.90, con un valor esperado de -0.868%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -0.868%E -0.222%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -9.01%E -4.82%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-02 18:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.63%EV -2.39%E -0.623%K -0.843%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.52%EV -7.06%E -3.70%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.84%EV -5.12%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 21:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.02%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -2.79%E -0.743%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 21:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.24%EV -8.52%E -4.53%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.97%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-02 13:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.24%EV -8.52%E -4.53%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.97%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-02 13:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -6.09%E -3.16%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.67%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 18:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -7.06%E -3.70%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.03%EV -7.19%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 08:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.05%EV -8.04%E -4.25%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 25.90%EV -7.19%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -9.01%E -4.82%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.97%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 21:26 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -9.01%E -4.82%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.97%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 21:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -7.06%E -3.70%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -6.67%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.28%EV -7.55%E -3.97%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -10.56%E -3.06%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-02 15:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -7.22%E -1.98%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.28%EV -7.55%E -3.97%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -10.56%E -3.06%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-02 15:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -2.79%E -0.743%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 07:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.08%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 21:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -6.09%E -3.16%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.67%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-02 01:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -8.52%E -4.53%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.67%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-04 07:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.43%EV -8.04%E -4.25%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-04 06:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.06%E -3.70%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-31 15:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.06%E -3.70%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-31 15:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.06%E -3.70%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-31 15:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -9.01%E -4.82%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-01 23:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -9.01%E -4.82%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-01 23:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -5.38%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -5.38%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -5.38%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -5.38%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -5.38%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -5.38%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -5.38%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.12%E -2.62%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.64%EV -5.38%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -7.06%E -3.70%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.67%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 21:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -7.06%E -3.70%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.67%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 21:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.55%E -3.97%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -6.67%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-31 08:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -9.01%E -4.82%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -10.56%E -3.06%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-02 16:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.65%EV -11.44%E -6.29%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -11.04%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.00%EV -14.85%E -8.49%K -19.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-08-31 21:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.13%EV -12.31%E -3.57%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.47%EV -9.50%E -5.11%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.40%EV -7.97%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-03 17:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.30%EV -12.31%E -3.57%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.03%EV -13.39%E -7.52%K -17.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-09-04 07:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.71%EV -8.04%E -4.25%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -7.06%E -3.70%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-02 01:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -7.06%E -3.70%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-02 01:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.98%E -5.40%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-03 21:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.18%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.38%EV -10.47%E -5.69%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.44%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-03 17:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -13.58%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.03%EV -11.44%E -6.29%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 26.25%EV -13.67%E -4.11%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -14.85%E -4.43%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.66%EV -8.52%E -4.53%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -16.12%E -4.88%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.56%EV -9.50%E -5.11%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -10.56%E -3.06%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -16.12%E -4.88%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.56%EV -9.50%E -5.11%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -10.56%E -3.06%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -16.12%E -4.88%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -9.98%E -5.40%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%EV -10.56%E -3.06%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-03 09:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -16.12%E -4.88%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -9.98%E -5.40%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.57%EV -10.56%E -3.06%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-03 09:49 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.97% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.05% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.98% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.60% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.08% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 07:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.60% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.08% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 07:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.60% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.08% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 07:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.87% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 07:40 |