Language:English
Motor Lublin v Lech Poznań
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Motor Lublin (Local)
Prediction 22.69%4.41fair odd
EV +2.09%
Edge +0.465%
Kelly +0.598%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.21%22.58%22.91%24.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.014.004.5027.78%24.92%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lech Poznań (Visit)
Prediction 54.87%1.82fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -4.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.48%54.93%54.77%56.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.671.681.7663.69%59.77%59.52%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.44%4.46fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.289%
Kelly -0.374%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.53%22.49%22.31%24.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.094.104.4028.57%24.45%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Motor Lublin (Local): 22.69%; Lech Poznań (Visit): 54.87%; Draw: 22.44%. For Motor Lublin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.09%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%EV +2.09%E +0.465%K +0.598%G +0.013% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.25%EV -4.52%E -2.60%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 4.11I 24.33%NM 23.39%EV -7.78%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -0.177%E -0.040%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.57%EV -9.46%E -5.73%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.76%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 18:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -2.45%E -0.569%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.13%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV -1.27%E -0.289%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.03%EV -2.45%E -0.569%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.41%EV -6.16%E -3.60%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -5.76%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-02 17:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -2.45%E -0.569%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.48%EV -5.62%E -3.26%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -11.37%E -2.88%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -2.45%E -0.569%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.48%EV -5.62%E -3.26%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -11.37%E -2.88%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 17:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -2.45%E -0.569%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -7.81%E -4.65%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -12.49%E -3.20%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 18:02 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -2.45%E -0.569%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -9.46%E -5.73%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -10.25%E -2.56%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -3.58%E -0.842%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.25%EV -7.81%E -4.65%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -9.13%E -2.25%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -3.58%E -0.842%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.76%EV -7.81%E -4.65%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.59%EV -12.49%E -3.20%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -4.71%E -1.12%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -12.49%E -3.20%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -4.71%E -1.12%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -12.49%E -3.20%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -4.71%E -1.12%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -12.49%E -3.20%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -4.71%E -1.12%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -9.46%E -5.73%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -10.25%E -2.56%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-02 18:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -4.71%E -1.12%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -11.10%E -6.85%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -10.25%E -2.56%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-02 18:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.58%EV -8.57%E -2.13%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.00%EV -3.42%E -1.94%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.42%EV -4.86%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-02 18:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -6.16%E -3.60%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -2.39%E -0.550%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -6.16%E -3.60%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -2.39%E -0.550%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 17:31 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -6.16%E -3.60%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -2.39%E -0.550%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.93%EV -6.16%E -3.60%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -2.39%E -0.550%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 17:31 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -3.52%E -0.818%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -3.52%E -0.818%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -3.52%E -0.818%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -3.52%E -0.818%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 17:31 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -3.52%E -0.818%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 17:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.16%EV -7.26%E -4.30%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -2.84%E -0.657%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 17:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -4.64%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 17:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -7.26%E -4.30%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -8.00%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 17:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -8.36%E -5.01%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.76%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 17:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -10.25%E -2.56%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -8.36%E -5.01%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.32%EV -8.00%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 17:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.25%EV -9.25%E -2.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.93%EV -11.10%E -6.85%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -12.49%E -3.20%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-02 18:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -10.39%E -2.63%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.26%EV -6.88%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-02 17:31 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -10.39%E -2.63%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.71%E -3.95%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.26%EV -6.88%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-02 17:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -10.39%E -2.63%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.93%EV -7.81%E -4.65%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -4.64%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -10.39%E -2.63%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.49%EV -7.81%E -4.65%K -11.49%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -8.00%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -11.52%E -2.95%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -8.91%E -5.37%K -13.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -5.76%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-02 17:31 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -11.52%E -2.95%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -8.91%E -5.37%K -13.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -5.76%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -11.52%E -2.95%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.78%EV -9.46%E -5.73%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -8.00%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-02 18:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -11.52%E -2.95%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.78%EV -10.55%E -6.47%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -10.25%E -2.56%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-02 18:01 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -12.65%E -3.29%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.75%EV -8.91%E -5.37%K -13.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -5.76%E -1.37%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -12.65%E -3.29%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.48%EV -5.62%E -3.26%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -15.86%E -4.23%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.33%EV -12.65%E -3.29%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.77%EV -10.01%E -6.10%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -8.00%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-02 17:31 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -13.79%E -3.63%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.90%EV -11.10%E -6.85%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -8.00%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.28%EV -13.79%E -3.63%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.61%EV -11.10%E -6.85%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -10.25%E -2.56%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-02 17:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.25%EV -13.79%E -3.63%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.54%EV -11.10%E -6.85%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 22.20%EV -10.70%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-02 17:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.25%EV -13.79%E -3.63%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.21%EV -12.20%E -7.63%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.55%EV -8.00%E -1.95%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.55%EV -13.79%E -3.63%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 54.59%EV -13.85%E -8.82%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.86%EV -15.86%E -4.23%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-05-02 18:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -14.92%E -3.98%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -8.36%E -5.01%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -10.25%E -2.56%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -14.92%E -3.98%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -8.36%E -5.01%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -10.25%E -2.56%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-02 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.42%EV -14.92%E -3.98%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 53.56%EV -13.85%E -8.82%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.02%EV -21.47%E -6.13%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 18.9% | 2026-05-02 17:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.01%EV -17.19%E -4.71%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.09%EV -11.10%E -6.85%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -10.25%E -2.56%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-02 17:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.82%EV -18.33%E -5.09%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 53.61%EV -12.20%E -7.63%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.57%EV -14.74%E -3.88%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-05-02 17:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.74% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.52% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.74% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 17:46 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.52% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.46% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.10% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.44% | 1.3% | 2026-05-02 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.39% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.24% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.37% | 1.6% | 2026-05-02 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.39% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.24% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.37% | 1.6% | 2026-05-02 18:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.63% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.25% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12% | 2.8% | 2026-05-02 18:10 |