Language:English
Lech Poznań v Piast Gliwice
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lech Poznań (Local)
Prediction 59.94%1.67fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -2.96%
Kelly -7.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.82%59.94%59.90%62.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.531.541.5969.44%65.38%64.94%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Piast Gliwice (Visit)
Prediction 18.46%5.42fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.280%
Kelly +0.342%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.76%18.41%18.68%19.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.065.005.5022.22%19.77%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.60%4.63fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -0.620%
Kelly -0.797%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.82%21.65%21.42%23.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.184.204.5025.97%23.92%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 59.94%; Piast Gliwice (Visit): 18.46%; Draw: 21.60%. For Piast Gliwice (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.42. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29%EV -11.29%E -7.63%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV +1.54%E +0.280%K +0.342%G +0.005% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -4.95%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 15:08 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.90%EV -5.90%E -3.76%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.71%EV -0.306%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 4.47I 22.37%NM 21.39%EV -3.44%E -0.769%K -0.991%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.38%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -0.306%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.38%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -0.306%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.38%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -0.306%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.38%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -0.306%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.54%EV -7.70%E -5.00%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -0.306%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.54%EV -7.70%E -5.00%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -0.306%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.54%EV -7.70%E -5.00%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -0.306%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.54%EV -7.70%E -5.00%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -0.306%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.34%EV -7.70%E -5.00%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.53%EV -2.15%E -0.406%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 15:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.28%EV -10.10%E -6.73%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -2.15%E -0.406%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -7.11%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.49%EV -9.50%E -6.29%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.23%EV -2.15%E -0.406%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.28%EV -11.43%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.65%EV -10.10%E -6.73%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -2.15%E -0.406%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -11.43%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.65%EV -10.10%E -6.73%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -2.15%E -0.406%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -11.43%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.65%EV -10.10%E -6.73%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -2.15%E -0.406%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -11.43%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.83%EV -6.50%E -4.17%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -3.08%E -0.586%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -2.79%E -0.620%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.95%EV -8.90%E -5.85%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -3.08%E -0.586%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -6.46%E -1.49%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -10.10%E -6.73%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -3.08%E -0.586%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-09 15:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -10.10%E -6.73%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -3.08%E -0.586%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-09 15:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.45%EV -8.90%E -5.85%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.67%EV -4.00%E -0.769%K -0.952%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 03:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.79%EV -4.70%E -2.96%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 5.18I 19.31%NM 18.35%EV -4.37%E -0.843%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.85%EV -6.03%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 15:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.72%EV -13.69%E -9.51%K -31.12%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.14%EV -5.84%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.14%EV -14.67%E -3.71%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -5.90%E -3.76%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -4.95%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-09 14:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -2.79%E -0.620%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 14:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -2.79%E -0.620%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 14:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.25%EV -5.30%E -3.36%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.03%EV -8.19%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 12:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.11%EV -7.70%E -5.00%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -6.46%E -1.49%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 12:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -5.90%E -3.76%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -11.43%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-09 03:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-09 15:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-09 15:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.30%E -5.42%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.71%EV -8.90%E -5.85%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -11.43%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.10%E -6.73%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-09 10:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.39%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -16.83%E -4.37%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-09 03:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.83%EV -11.89%E -8.09%K -25.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -7.69%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-09 15:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.60%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.66%EV -8.61%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -8.19%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-09 12:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.60%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.66%EV -8.61%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -8.19%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-09 12:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -9.54%E -1.95%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 12:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.48%EV -10.10%E -6.73%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.21%EV -9.54%E -1.95%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -13.59%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-09 15:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.82%EV -5.90%E -3.76%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -11.38%E -2.37%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -15.75%E -4.04%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-09 14:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.82%EV -5.90%E -3.76%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -11.38%E -2.37%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -15.75%E -4.04%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-09 14:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.82%EV -5.90%E -3.76%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -11.38%E -2.37%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -15.75%E -4.04%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-09 14:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -10.10%E -6.73%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -11.38%E -2.37%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.59%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -7.10%E -4.58%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -12.31%E -2.59%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -6.46%E -1.49%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 15:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.63%EV -8.90%E -5.85%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.29%EV -13.23%E -2.81%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -7.11%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-09 12:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.19%EV -10.70%E -7.18%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.76%EV -13.23%E -2.81%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -13.59%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-09 15:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.19%EV -10.70%E -7.18%K -21.83%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.76%EV -13.23%E -2.81%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -13.59%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-09 15:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 59.84%EV -13.09%E -9.03%K -29.10%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.46%EV -13.23%E -2.81%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.69%EV -13.59%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.09%EV -8.90%E -5.85%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.53%EV -15.08%E -3.28%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-09 12:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -8.30%E -5.42%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -15.08%E -3.28%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -13.59%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-09 09:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -8.30%E -5.42%K -15.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -15.08%E -3.28%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -13.59%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-09 09:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.15%EV -10.10%E -6.73%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -16.92%E -3.76%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -9.27%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-09 14:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.29% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.12% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59% | 0.7% | 2026-08-09 15:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.44% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.74% | 1.1% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.00% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 1.2% | 2026-08-09 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.00% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 1.2% | 2026-08-09 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.00% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.04% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 1.2% | 2026-08-09 15:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.82% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.29% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.90% | 1.5% | 2026-08-09 15:25 |