Language:English
Lech Poznań v Nieciecza
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lech Poznań (Local)
Prediction 71.24%1.40fair odd
EV -0.258%
Edge -0.184%
Kelly -0.646%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.24%71.07%71.03%73.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.311.301.4085.47%76.23%76.92%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nieciecza (Visit)
Prediction 12.10%8.26fair odd
EV +8.91%
Edge +0.990%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.099%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.54%12.11%12.31%14.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.267.259.0016.67%13.78%13.79%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.65%6.00fair odd
EV -0.073%
Edge -0.012%
Kelly -0.015%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.45%16.83%16.66%20.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.275.256.0023.09%18.98%19.05%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 71.24%; Nieciecza (Visit): 12.10%; Draw: 16.65%. For Nieciecza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.26. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.96%EV -7.38%E -5.68%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +8.91%E +0.990%K +1.11%G +0.099% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -4.24%E -0.737%K -0.892%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.95%EV -9.52%E -7.50%K -35.26%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.65%EV +5.28%E +0.607%K +0.686%G +0.036% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.40%EV -5.90%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-22 12:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.75%EV -8.81%E -6.88%K -31.46%G +0.000% | 8.65I 11.56%NM 10.77%EV +4.68%E +0.541%K +0.611%G +0.029% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.48%EV -5.90%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -10.94%E -8.76%K -43.78%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV +2.86%E +0.337%K +0.382%G +0.011% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -4.24%E -0.737%K -0.892%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.51%EV -6.67%E -5.09%K -21.52%G +0.000% | 8.46I 11.82%NM 11.23%EV +2.38%E +0.281%K +0.319%G +0.008% | 5.84I 17.12%NM 16.26%EV -2.74%E -0.469%K -0.566%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.40%EV -4.53%E -3.38%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.96%EV -3.19%E -0.399%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.64%EV -4.24%E -0.737%K -0.892%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.40%EV -4.53%E -3.38%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.96%EV -3.19%E -0.399%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.64%EV -4.24%E -0.737%K -0.892%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.71%EV -5.96%E -4.51%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -3.19%E -0.399%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -4.24%E -0.737%K -0.892%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.97%EV -9.52%E -7.50%K -35.26%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -3.19%E -0.399%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -0.073%E -0.012%K -0.015%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-22 13:18 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.38%EV -9.52%E -7.50%K -35.26%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -3.19%E -0.399%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.13%EV -5.07%E -0.889%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -8.81%E -6.88%K -31.46%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -3.19%E -0.399%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -8.40%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.40%EV -9.52%E -7.50%K -35.26%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -3.19%E -0.399%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.27%EV -12.56%E -2.39%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.62%EV -8.81%E -6.88%K -31.46%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -3.19%E -0.399%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -16.73%E -3.35%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-22 13:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.28%EV -10.94%E -8.76%K -43.78%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -3.19%E -0.399%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -8.40%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-22 12:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.38%EV -8.10%E -6.28%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.88%EV -6.21%E -0.802%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.74%EV -8.40%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 12:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.38%EV -8.10%E -6.28%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.88%EV -6.21%E -0.802%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.74%EV -8.40%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 12:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -7.38%E -5.68%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -9.24%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -8.40%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -7.38%E -5.68%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -9.24%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -8.40%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -7.38%E -5.68%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -9.24%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -8.40%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -7.38%E -5.68%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -9.24%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -8.40%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -10.94%E -8.76%K -43.78%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -9.24%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -8.40%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-22 13:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -7.38%E -5.68%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -9.24%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -25.05%E -5.57%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 69.23%EV -10.94%E -8.76%K -43.78%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.54%EV -9.24%E -1.23%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -25.05%E -5.57%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-03-22 12:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.60%EV -7.38%E -5.68%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.40%EV -10.45%E -1.41%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.00%EV -10.07%E -1.86%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.68%EV -5.25%E -3.94%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -12.27%E -1.69%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -4.24%E -0.737%K -0.892%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.40%EV -8.81%E -6.88%K -31.46%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.43%EV -12.27%E -1.69%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.17%EV -12.56%E -2.39%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-22 13:16 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.16%EV -6.67%E -5.09%K -21.52%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -15.29%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -8.40%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -10.94%E -8.76%K -43.78%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -15.29%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.81%EV -12.56%E -2.39%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-22 12:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.94%E -8.76%K -43.78%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -15.29%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -16.73%E -3.35%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 71.83%EV -16.64%E -14.23%K -97.91%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.01%EV -15.29%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.16%EV -13.40%E -2.58%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 19.0% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.80%EV -1.68%E -1.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV -18.32%E -2.71%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -15.06%E -2.95%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 11:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.80%EV -1.68%E -1.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV -18.32%E -2.71%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -15.06%E -2.95%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 11:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.80%EV -1.68%E -1.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV -18.32%E -2.71%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -15.06%E -2.95%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.80%EV -1.68%E -1.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV -18.32%E -2.71%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -15.06%E -2.95%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 11:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.55%EV -8.10%E -6.28%K -27.91%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.48%EV -18.32%E -2.71%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.97%EV -5.07%E -0.889%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-22 13:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -1.68%E -1.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -21.34%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -16.73%E -3.35%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -1.68%E -1.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -21.34%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -16.73%E -3.35%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-22 11:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -1.68%E -1.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -21.34%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -16.73%E -3.35%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -1.68%E -1.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -21.34%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -16.73%E -3.35%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -1.68%E -1.22%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -21.34%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -16.73%E -3.35%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.26%EV -3.11%E -2.29%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -21.34%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -18.39%E -3.75%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -7.38%E -5.68%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -21.34%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -12.56%E -2.39%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -7.38%E -5.68%K -24.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -21.34%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -12.56%E -2.39%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 69.85%EV -10.23%E -8.12%K -39.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.54%EV -21.34%E -3.28%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.61%EV -11.73%E -2.21%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.27%EV -3.82%E -2.83%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.19%EV -22.55%E -3.52%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.53%EV -18.39%E -3.75%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-22 12:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.27%EV -3.82%E -2.83%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.19%EV -22.55%E -3.52%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.53%EV -18.39%E -3.75%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-22 13:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.18%EV -4.53%E -3.38%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.07%EV -22.55%E -3.52%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -20.06%E -4.18%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.15%EV -5.96%E -4.51%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.18%EV -24.37%E -3.90%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.66%EV -20.89%E -4.40%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -0.258%E -0.184%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -27.39%E -4.57%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -27.89%E -6.44%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-20 13:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -0.258%E -0.184%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -27.39%E -4.57%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -27.89%E -6.44%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-20 13:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.46% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.54% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00% | 1.0% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.46% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.54% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00% | 1.0% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.11% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.49% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.40% | 1.5% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.75% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.43% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.82% | 2.0% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.56% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.78% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.66% | 2.1% | 2026-03-22 12:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.89% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.38% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.73% | 2.5% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |