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Lech Poznań v Korona Kielce
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lech Poznań (Local)
Prediction 56.42%1.77fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -5.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.15%56.55%56.40%59.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.621.611.7066.67%61.87%62.11%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Korona Kielce (Visit)
Prediction 20.66%4.84fair odd
EV +3.30%
Edge +0.661%
Kelly +0.826%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.78%20.57%20.67%22.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.504.505.0025.00%22.21%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.92%4.36fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -0.834%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.47%22.88%22.92%24.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.984.004.2126.67%25.14%25.00%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 56.42%; Korona Kielce (Visit): 20.66%; Draw: 22.92%. For Korona Kielce (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.84. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV +3.30%E +0.661%K +0.826%G +0.027% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV +3.30%E +0.661%K +0.826%G +0.027% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV +3.30%E +0.661%K +0.826%G +0.027% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV +3.30%E +0.661%K +0.826%G +0.027% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV +3.30%E +0.661%K +0.826%G +0.027% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV +3.30%E +0.661%K +0.826%G +0.027% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV +3.30%E +0.661%K +0.826%G +0.027% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.32%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV +3.30%E +0.661%K +0.826%G +0.027% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.21%E -3.10%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.21%EV -2.07%E -0.436%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 22.76%EV -3.51%E -0.834%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-18 15:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.94%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -2.90%E -0.616%K -0.782%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -3.74%E -0.890%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-18 15:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.91%EV -11.98%E -7.68%K -21.40%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.22%EV -2.90%E -0.616%K -0.782%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.87%EV -9.47%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-18 14:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.34%EV -14.24%E -9.37%K -27.39%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.19%EV -2.90%E -0.616%K -0.782%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -3.74%E -0.890%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-18 14:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.90%EV -12.55%E -8.10%K -22.82%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.09%EV -2.90%E -0.616%K -0.782%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -10.61%E -2.72%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-18 14:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.89%EV -4.09%E -2.40%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.48%EV -4.13%E -0.891%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.02I 24.88%NM 23.63%EV -7.86%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-18 15:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -5.78%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.96%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-18 15:03 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -6.91%E -4.19%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -4.96%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-18 11:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.64%EV -13.11%E -8.52%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -4.96%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -11.76%E -3.05%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.64%EV -13.11%E -8.52%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -4.96%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -11.76%E -3.05%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.64%EV -13.11%E -8.52%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -4.96%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -11.76%E -3.05%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.64%EV -13.11%E -8.52%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -4.96%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -11.76%E -3.05%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.39%EV -5.21%E -3.10%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -3.74%E -0.890%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-18 15:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -5.78%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-18 15:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.36%EV -7.47%E -4.56%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-18 15:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.60%E -5.31%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-18 11:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.49%EV -8.60%E -5.31%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.17%EV -9.47%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-18 11:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.49%EV -8.60%E -5.31%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.17%EV -9.47%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-18 11:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.81%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -7.03%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-18 15:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.67%EV -4.65%E -2.75%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -9.09%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-18 15:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.35%EV -4.65%E -2.75%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -9.09%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 15:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.35%EV -4.65%E -2.75%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -9.09%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 15:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -8.04%E -4.93%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -9.09%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-18 15:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -5.78%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -9.09%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -12.91%E -3.40%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -5.78%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -9.09%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -12.91%E -3.40%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-18 15:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -5.78%E -3.46%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -9.09%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -12.91%E -3.40%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-18 15:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -9.09%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-18 15:28 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -9.16%E -5.69%K -15.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -9.09%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-18 15:28 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.70%EV -9.73%E -6.08%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -9.09%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-18 15:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.70%EV -9.73%E -6.08%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -9.09%E -2.07%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-18 15:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.61%EV -8.04%E -4.93%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -10.13%E -2.33%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.55%EV -11.76%E -3.05%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-18 15:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.75%EV -6.91%E -4.19%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -10.54%E -2.43%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-18 15:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.25%EV -4.09%E -2.40%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -11.16%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-18 15:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.74%EV -9.73%E -6.08%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -11.16%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -6.03%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-18 11:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 57.52%EV -15.37%E -10.25%K -30.74%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.07%EV -11.16%E -2.60%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.41%EV -11.76%E -3.05%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-10-18 15:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.26%EV -11.98%E -7.68%K -21.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.65%EV -12.19%E -2.87%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -12.91%E -3.40%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-18 15:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -8.60%E -5.31%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -13.23%E -3.15%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-18 15:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.46%EV -10.86%E -6.87%K -18.72%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.24%EV -13.23%E -3.15%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -8.32%E -2.08%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-18 11:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -8.60%E -5.31%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.23%E -3.15%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -14.05%E -3.75%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-18 15:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.49%EV -9.73%E -6.08%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -13.23%E -3.15%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.91%E -3.40%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-18 15:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.28%EV -12.55%E -8.10%K -22.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.77%EV -13.23%E -3.15%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.95%EV -12.91%E -3.40%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-10-18 15:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.07%EV -8.60%E -5.31%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -15.29%E -3.73%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.17%EV -11.76%E -3.05%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-18 15:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -6.91%E -4.19%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -17.36%E -4.34%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -12.91%E -3.40%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-18 15:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -6.91%E -4.19%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -17.36%E -4.34%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -12.91%E -3.40%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-18 15:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.38%EV -11.42%E -7.27%K -20.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.74%EV -17.36%E -4.34%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.88%EV -12.91%E -3.40%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-10-18 15:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.12% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.60% | 0.6% | 2026-10-18 15:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.07% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.86% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.07% | 0.7% | 2026-10-18 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.07% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.86% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.07% | 0.7% | 2026-10-18 15:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.07% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.86% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.07% | 0.7% | 2026-10-18 15:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.93% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.69% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.38% | 1.6% | 2026-10-18 15:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.50% | 2.2% | 2026-10-18 15:25 |