Language:English
Lech Poznań v Jagiellonia Białystok
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lech Poznań (Local)
Prediction 59.24%1.69fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.86%59.24%59.17%61.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.571.571.6668.03%63.77%63.69%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jagiellonia Białystok (Visit)
Prediction 19.49%5.13fair odd
EV +3.31%
Edge +0.625%
Kelly +0.770%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 5.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.50%19.55%19.50%22.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.584.605.3025.00%21.85%21.74%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.27%4.70fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.216%
Kelly +0.274%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.13%21.21%21.33%22.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.274.304.7525.00%23.40%23.26%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 59.24%; Jagiellonia Białystok (Visit): 19.49%; Draw: 21.27%. For Jagiellonia Białystok (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.13. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.31%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.42%EV -10.55%E -6.99%K -20.69%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.50%EV +3.31%E +0.625%K +0.770%G +0.026% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-03 18:18 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 5.19I 19.27%NM 18.47%EV +1.17%E +0.225%K +0.279%G +0.003% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 20.88%EV -2.38%E -0.518%K -0.662%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.62%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.44%EV +0.194%E +0.038%K +0.047%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.94%EV -8.12%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -10.55%E -6.99%K -20.69%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -0.586%E -0.115%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 18:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.94%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-03 18:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.94%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-03 18:04 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.81%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-03 18:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.75%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV +1.03%E +0.216%K +0.274%G +0.003% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 18:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-03 18:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.97%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 18:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.16%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.35%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-03 18:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.77%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.77%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 59.59%EV -12.92%E -8.79%K -27.49%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.04%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.37%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-03 18:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -4.63%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.50%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-03 17:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.37%EV -9.96%E -6.55%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 21.91%EV -13.86%E -3.42%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-03 18:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.59%E -4.86%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.27%EV -9.96%E -6.55%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.60%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-03 18:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.84%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.96%EV -17.15%E -4.04%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-03 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-03 17:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.33%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-09-03 18:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -20.08%E -4.90%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.17%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.17%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-03 18:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.72% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.13% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 0.9% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 0.9% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.87% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.07% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06% | 1.0% | 2026-09-03 18:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.26% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.30% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44% | 1.4% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 2.0% | 2026-09-03 18:15 |