Model domyślnyŚrednia międzykwartylowa (Lista Wyselekcjonowana)

Lech Poznań v Jagiellonia Białystok

Początek: 2026-09-03 18:31 UTC

Wynik końcowy: Lech Poznań 2–1 Jagiellonia Białystok

Linia zamknięcia — prawdopodobieństwa i wartość oczekiwana obliczone przez wybrany model na podstawie ostatnich kursów zarejestrowanych przed rozpoczęciem. Spotkanie już trwa, więc nie są to dane bieżące. Oceń wiarygodność prognoz prawdopodobieństwa każdego modelu na tle wyników wszystkich rozstrzygniętych spotkań →

Zwycięzca spotkania

53 bukmacherów (20 w analizie )

Szacowane prawdopodobieństwo każdego wyniku według modelu: Średnia międzykwartylowa (Lista Wyselekcjonowana)

Lech Poznań (Gospodarze)

Prognoza 59.24%1.69kurs godziwy
EV -1.66%
Przewaga -1.00%
Kelly -2.52%
Wzrost +0.000%

przy maksymalnym kursie 1.66

Rozkład oszacowań prawdopodobieństwa bukmacherów
55.86%59.24%59.17%61.42%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Rozkład kursów
1.471.571.571.6668.03%63.77%63.69%60.24%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.

Jagiellonia Białystok (Goście)

Prognoza 19.49%5.13kurs godziwy
EV +3.31%
Przewaga +0.625%
Kelly +0.770%
Wzrost +0.026%

przy maksymalnym kursie 5.30

Rozkład oszacowań prawdopodobieństwa bukmacherów
17.50%19.55%19.50%22.34%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Rozkład kursów
4.004.584.605.3025.00%21.85%21.74%18.87%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.

Remis

Prognoza 21.27%4.70kurs godziwy
EV +1.03%
Przewaga +0.216%
Kelly +0.274%
Wzrost +0.003%

przy maksymalnym kursie 4.75

Rozkład oszacowań prawdopodobieństwa bukmacherów
20.13%21.21%21.33%22.61%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Rozkład kursów
4.004.274.304.7525.00%23.40%23.26%21.05%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.

Przy ostatnich kursach przed rozpoczęciem model Średnia międzykwartylowa (Lista Wyselekcjonowana) szacował rynek Zwycięzca spotkania następująco: Lech Poznań (Gospodarze): 59.24%; Jagiellonia Białystok (Goście): 19.49%; Remis: 21.27%. Dla wyniku Jagiellonia Białystok (Goście) oszacowanie to odpowiadało uczciwemu kursowi dziesiętnemu 5.13. 3 bukmacherów oferowało kursy zamknięcia powyżej tego poziomu; najlepszy wynosił 5.30, co odpowiadało dodatniej wartości oczekiwanej +3.31%.

Kursy bukmacherskie (53 bukmacherów)

Nie jesteśmy powiązani z żadnym bukmacherem i nie czerpiemy korzyści z zawieranych u niego zakładów.

BukmacherGospodarzeGoście ▼RemisMarżaAktualizacja
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.42%EV -10.55%E -6.99%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.50%EV +3.31%E +0.625%K +0.770%G +0.026%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 18:18
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.47%EV +1.17%E +0.225%K +0.279%G +0.003%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.88%EV -2.38%E -0.518%K -0.662%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 18:25
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.62%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.44%EV +0.194%E +0.038%K +0.047%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.94%EV -8.12%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 18:25
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -10.55%E -6.99%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -0.586%E -0.115%K -0.143%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 18:05
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 18:20
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 18:00
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.94%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 18:04
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.94%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 18:04
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.81%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 18:24
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 18:15
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 18:20
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.75%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV +1.03%E +0.216%K +0.274%G +0.003%4.6%2026-09-03 18:04
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.97%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 18:05
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:00
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.16%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:15
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.35%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 18:10
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.77%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 18:05
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.77%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.59%EV -12.92%E -8.79%K -27.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.04%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.37%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-03 18:10
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -4.63%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.50%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 17:40
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.37%EV -9.96%E -6.55%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.91%EV -13.86%E -3.42%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.59%E -4.86%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 18:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.27%EV -9.96%E -6.55%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.60%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 18:10
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-03 18:05
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.84%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.96%EV -17.15%E -4.04%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 18:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 17:40
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 17:40
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.33%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-03 18:10
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -20.08%E -4.90%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 18:05
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-03 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.17%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.17%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 18:05
Marża = Marża (suma nadmiarowa) · I = Prawdopodobieństwo implikowane · NM = Prawdopodobieństwo bez marży · EV = Wartość oczekiwana · E = Przewaga · K = Kryterium Kelly’ego · G = Wzrost kapitału

Aktualizacja oznacza chwilę ostatniej zmiany kursu przez danego bukmachera. Starszy czas wskazuje więc, że kurs się nie zmienił, a nie że jest nieaktualny. Bukmacherzy niewidoczni przez około 15 minut są zwykle usuwani; jedynie gdy zamilknie źródło danych całego rynku, wyświetlane są ostatnie zarejestrowane kursy.

Giełdy zakładów (6)

BukmacherGospodarzeGościeRemisMarża ▲Aktualizacja
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.72%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.13%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-09-03 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-03 18:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-03 18:15
Matchbook◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.87%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.0%2026-09-03 18:25
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.26%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.30%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44%1.4%2026-09-03 18:15
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%2.0%2026-09-03 18:15