Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Lech Poznań v Jagiellonia Białystok

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-03 18:31 UTC

Score final : Lech Poznań 2–1 Jagiellonia Białystok

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Lech Poznań (Local)

Prévision 59.24%1.69cote équitable
EV -1.66%
Avantage -1.00%
Kelly -2.52%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.66

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
55.86%59.24%59.17%61.42%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.471.571.571.6668.03%63.77%63.69%60.24%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Jagiellonia Białystok (Visiteur)

Prévision 19.49%5.13cote équitable
EV +3.31%
Avantage +0.625%
Kelly +0.770%
Croissance +0.026%

avec la cote maximale 5.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.50%19.55%19.50%22.34%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.004.584.605.3025.00%21.85%21.74%18.87%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 21.27%4.70cote équitable
EV +1.03%
Avantage +0.216%
Kelly +0.274%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 4.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.13%21.21%21.33%22.61%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.004.274.304.7525.00%23.40%23.26%21.05%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Lech Poznań (Local) : 59.24% ; Jagiellonia Białystok (Visiteur) : 19.49% ; Match nul : 21.27%. Pour Jagiellonia Białystok (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 5.13. 3 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 5.30, soit une espérance positive de +3.31%.

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.42%EV -10.55%E -6.99%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.50%EV +3.31%E +0.625%K +0.770%G +0.026%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 18:18
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.47%EV +1.17%E +0.225%K +0.279%G +0.003%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.88%EV -2.38%E -0.518%K -0.662%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 18:25
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.62%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.44%EV +0.194%E +0.038%K +0.047%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.94%EV -8.12%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 18:25
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -10.55%E -6.99%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -0.586%E -0.115%K -0.143%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 18:05
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 18:20
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 18:00
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.94%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 18:04
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.94%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 18:04
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.81%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 18:24
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 18:15
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 18:20
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.75%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV +1.03%E +0.216%K +0.274%G +0.003%4.6%2026-09-03 18:04
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.97%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 18:05
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:00
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.16%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:15
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.35%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 18:10
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.77%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 18:05
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.77%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.59%EV -12.92%E -8.79%K -27.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.04%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.37%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-03 18:10
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -4.63%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.50%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 17:40
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.37%EV -9.96%E -6.55%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.91%EV -13.86%E -3.42%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.59%E -4.86%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 18:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.27%EV -9.96%E -6.55%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.60%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 18:10
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-03 18:05
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.84%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.96%EV -17.15%E -4.04%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 18:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 17:40
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 17:40
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.33%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-03 18:10
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -20.08%E -4.90%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 18:05
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-03 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.17%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.17%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 18:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.72%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.13%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-09-03 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-03 18:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-03 18:15
Matchbook◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.87%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.0%2026-09-03 18:25
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.26%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.30%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44%1.4%2026-09-03 18:15
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%2.0%2026-09-03 18:15