Модель по умолчаниюМежквартильное среднее (Отобранный список)

Lech Poznań v Jagiellonia Białystok

Начало: 2026-09-03 18:31 UTC

Итог: Lech Poznań 2–1 Jagiellonia Białystok

Коэффициенты закрытия — вероятности и ожидаемая ценность, рассчитанные выбранной моделью по последним коэффициентам, зарегистрированным до начала матча. Матч уже начался, поэтому это не текущие показатели. Оценить надёжность вероятностных прогнозов каждой модели по результатам всех завершённых матчей →

Победитель встречи

53 букмекерские конторы (20 в анализе )

Оценка вероятности каждого исхода по модели: Межквартильное среднее (Отобранный список)

Lech Poznań (Хозяева)

Прогноз 59.24%1.69справедливый коэффициент
EV -1.66%
Преимущество -1.00%
Kelly -2.52%
Рост +0.000%

при максимальном коэффициенте 1.66

Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
55.86%59.24%59.17%61.42%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
1.471.571.571.6668.03%63.77%63.69%60.24%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.

Jagiellonia Białystok (Гости)

Прогноз 19.49%5.13справедливый коэффициент
EV +3.31%
Преимущество +0.625%
Kelly +0.770%
Рост +0.026%

при максимальном коэффициенте 5.30

Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
17.50%19.55%19.50%22.34%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
4.004.584.605.3025.00%21.85%21.74%18.87%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.

Ничья

Прогноз 21.27%4.70справедливый коэффициент
EV +1.03%
Преимущество +0.216%
Kelly +0.274%
Рост +0.003%

при максимальном коэффициенте 4.75

Распределение прогнозов букмекерских контор
20.13%21.21%21.33%22.61%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.
Распределение коэффициентов
4.004.274.304.7525.00%23.40%23.26%21.05%МИН.СРЕДНЕЕМЕДИАНАМАКС.

По последним коэффициентам перед началом модель Межквартильное среднее (Отобранный список) оценивала рынок «Победитель встречи» так: Lech Poznań (Хозяева): 59.24%; Jagiellonia Białystok (Гости): 19.49%; Ничья: 21.27%. Для исхода «Jagiellonia Białystok (Гости)» эта оценка соответствовала справедливому десятичному коэффициенту 5.13. 3 букмекера предлагали итоговые коэффициенты выше этого уровня; лучший составлял 5.30, что соответствовало положительному математическому ожиданию +3.31%.

Коэффициенты букмекерских контор (53 букмекерские конторы)

Мы не связаны ни с одной букмекерской конторой и ничего не зарабатываем на действиях, совершаемых у них.

Букмекерская контораХозяеваГости ▼НичьяМаржаОбновлено
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.42%EV -10.55%E -6.99%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.50%EV +3.31%E +0.625%K +0.770%G +0.026%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 18:18
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.47%EV +1.17%E +0.225%K +0.279%G +0.003%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.88%EV -2.38%E -0.518%K -0.662%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 18:25
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.62%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.44%EV +0.194%E +0.038%K +0.047%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.94%EV -8.12%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 18:25
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -10.55%E -6.99%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -0.586%E -0.115%K -0.143%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 18:05
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 18:20
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 18:00
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.94%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 18:04
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.94%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 18:04
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.81%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 18:24
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 18:15
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 18:20
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.75%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV +1.03%E +0.216%K +0.274%G +0.003%4.6%2026-09-03 18:04
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.97%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 18:05
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:00
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.16%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:15
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.35%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 18:10
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.77%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 18:05
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.77%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.59%EV -12.92%E -8.79%K -27.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.04%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.37%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-03 18:10
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -4.63%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.50%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 17:40
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.37%EV -9.96%E -6.55%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.91%EV -13.86%E -3.42%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.59%E -4.86%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 18:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.27%EV -9.96%E -6.55%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.60%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 18:10
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-03 18:05
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.84%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.96%EV -17.15%E -4.04%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 18:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 17:40
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 17:40
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.33%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-03 18:10
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -20.08%E -4.90%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 18:05
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-03 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.17%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.17%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 18:05
Маржа = Маржа · I = Подразумеваемая вероятность · NM = Вероятность без маржи · EV = Ожидаемая ценность · E = Преимущество · K = Критерий Келли · G = Рост капитала

Обновлено — время последнего изменения коэффициента каждой букмекерской конторой. Более раннее время означает лишь, что коэффициент не менялся, а не что он устарел. Конторы, от которых около 15 минут не поступали данные, обычно исключаются; последние зарегистрированные коэффициенты показываются только тогда, когда перестаёт обновляться весь поток данных по рынку.

Биржи ставок (6)

Букмекерская контораХозяеваГостиНичьяМаржа ▲Обновлено
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.72%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.13%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-09-03 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-03 18:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-03 18:15
Matchbook◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.87%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.0%2026-09-03 18:25
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.26%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.30%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44%1.4%2026-09-03 18:15
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%2.0%2026-09-03 18:15