Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Lech Poznań v Jagiellonia Białystok

Início: 2026-09-03 18:31 UTC

Final: Lech Poznań 2–1 Jagiellonia Białystok

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

53 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Lech Poznań (Local)

Previsão 59.24%1.69odd justa
EV -1.66%
Vantagem -1.00%
Kelly -2.52%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.66

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
55.86%59.24%59.17%61.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.471.571.571.6668.03%63.77%63.69%60.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Jagiellonia Białystok (Visitante)

Previsão 19.49%5.13odd justa
EV +3.31%
Vantagem +0.625%
Kelly +0.770%
Crescimento +0.026%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.50%19.55%19.50%22.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.004.584.605.3025.00%21.85%21.74%18.87%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 21.27%4.70odd justa
EV +1.03%
Vantagem +0.216%
Kelly +0.274%
Crescimento +0.003%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.13%21.21%21.33%22.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.004.274.304.7525.00%23.40%23.26%21.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Lech Poznań (Local): 59.24%; Jagiellonia Białystok (Visitante): 19.49%; Empate: 21.27%. Para Jagiellonia Białystok (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.13. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.30, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.31%.

Odds das casas de apostas (53 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.42%EV -10.55%E -6.99%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.50%EV +3.31%E +0.625%K +0.770%G +0.026%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 18:18
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.66%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.47%EV +1.17%E +0.225%K +0.279%G +0.003%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.88%EV -2.38%E -0.518%K -0.662%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 18:25
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.62%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.44%EV +0.194%E +0.038%K +0.047%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.94%EV -8.12%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 18:25
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -10.55%E -6.99%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -0.586%E -0.115%K -0.143%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 18:05
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -2.54%E -0.507%K -0.634%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 18:20
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.60%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 18:00
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.94%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 18:04
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.94%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -4.48%E -0.915%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.22%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 18:04
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.81%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 18:24
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 18:15
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -6.43%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 18:20
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.75%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV +1.03%E +0.216%K +0.274%G +0.003%4.6%2026-09-03 18:04
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.97%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 18:05
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:00
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.16%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -4.29%E -0.953%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:15
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.35%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -7.41%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 18:10
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.77%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 18:05
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.77%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.59%EV -12.92%E -8.79%K -27.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.04%EV -10.33%E -2.25%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.37%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-03 18:10
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -4.63%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.50%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 17:40
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.91%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.37%EV -9.96%E -6.55%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.28%E -2.73%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.91%EV -13.86%E -3.42%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.59%E -4.86%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -6.42%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 18:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -9.61%E -2.26%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 18:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.27%EV -9.96%E -6.55%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.13%EV -14.23%E -3.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.60%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 18:10
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -1.66%E -1.00%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -7.48%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -16.18%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.87%EV -8.54%E -1.99%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-03 18:05
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.84%EV -8.77%E -5.70%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.96%EV -17.15%E -4.04%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 18:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 17:40
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -14.92%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 17:40
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.33%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -18.13%E -4.32%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-03 18:10
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -20.08%E -4.90%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.67%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 18:05
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-03 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.17%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.17%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -22.03%E -5.51%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -12.80%E -3.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 18:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.72%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.13%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-09-03 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-03 18:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-03 18:15
Matchbook◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.87%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.0%2026-09-03 18:25
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.26%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.30%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.44%1.4%2026-09-03 18:15
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%2.0%2026-09-03 18:15