La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Lech Poznań v Arka Gdynia
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Lech Poznań (Local)
Predicción 70.65%1.42momio equitativo
EV -2.51%
Ventaja -1.82%
Kelly -6.60%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.12%70.54%70.59%72.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.211.311.311.3882.64%76.08%76.34%72.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Arka Gdynia (Visitante)
Predicción 12.04%8.31momio equitativo
EV +5.33%
Ventaja +0.609%
Kelly +0.687%
Crecimiento +0.037%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.53%12.07%12.09%13.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.507.487.508.7515.38%13.36%13.33%11.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 17.32%5.78momio equitativo
EV -0.435%
Ventaja -0.076%
Kelly -0.092%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.16%17.39%17.32%19.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.075.005.7522.22%19.72%20.00%17.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.75%EV -6.04%E -4.54%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.91%EV +5.33%E +0.609%K +0.687%G +0.037% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -4.76%E -0.866%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.83%EV -9.57%E -7.48%K -34.18%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV +2.32%E +0.273%K +0.309%G +0.007% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.35%EV -8.23%E -1.55%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| SportsBet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -11.69%E -9.35%K -46.76%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV +2.32%E +0.273%K +0.309%G +0.007% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.82%EV -8.87%E -6.87%K -30.57%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.03%EV +1.11%E +0.133%K +0.150%G +0.002% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.16%EV -6.50%E -1.20%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.36%EV -5.33%E -3.98%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 8.18I 12.22%NM 11.69%EV -1.53%E -0.188%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 5.64I 17.73%NM 16.95%EV -2.34%E -0.415%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| 1xBet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.42%EV -6.04%E -4.54%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 8.07I 12.39%NM 11.77%EV -2.86%E -0.354%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.81%EV -2.17%E -0.383%K -0.466%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -3.70%E -0.463%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -4.76%E -0.866%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 18:28 |
| Bet Victor | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.08%EV -8.87%E -6.87%K -30.57%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -3.70%E -0.463%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -9.09%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| FanDuel | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.17%EV -10.28%E -8.09%K -38.07%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -3.70%E -0.463%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -3.03%E -0.542%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| betfred_uk | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -3.70%E -0.463%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| PlayUp | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -3.70%E -0.463%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -17.75%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -11.69%E -9.35%K -46.76%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -3.70%E -0.463%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 69.73%EV -11.69%E -9.35%K -46.76%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.90%EV -3.70%E -0.463%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.37%EV -22.08%E -4.91%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Betsson | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.93%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.67%EV -4.91%E -0.621%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.40%EV -8.23%E -1.55%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| NordicBet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.93%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.67%EV -4.91%E -0.621%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.40%EV -8.23%E -1.55%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| BetMGM | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.02%EV -5.33%E -3.98%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.11%EV -6.71%E -0.866%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -9.09%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.78%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.71%EV -6.71%E -0.866%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.51%EV -15.15%E -3.09%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.37%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.04%EV -8.52%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.59%EV -9.96%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Unibet | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -2.51%E -1.82%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -16.88%E -3.52%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -2.51%E -1.82%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -16.88%E -3.52%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -2.51%E -1.82%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -16.88%E -3.52%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -2.51%E -1.82%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -16.88%E -3.52%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| DraftKings | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -6.75%E -5.11%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -4.76%E -0.866%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Betway | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.46%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -0.435%E -0.076%K -0.092%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Bovada | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.45%EV -7.45%E -5.69%K -24.04%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.25%EV -7.36%E -1.38%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-08 18:28 |
| 888sport | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.04%E -4.54%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.04%E -4.54%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.04%E -4.54%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Bet Right | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.27%EV -8.87%E -6.87%K -30.57%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.81%EV -17.75%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Sky Bet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.69%E -9.35%K -46.76%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -9.72%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -6.75%E -5.11%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.61%EV -10.92%E -1.48%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -3.03%E -0.542%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -6.75%E -5.11%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.61%EV -10.92%E -1.48%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -3.03%E -0.542%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| BetUS | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -6.75%E -5.11%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.61%EV -10.92%E -1.48%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -3.03%E -0.542%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 70.14%EV -10.98%E -8.72%K -42.25%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.19%EV -12.73%E -1.76%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.67%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-08 18:28 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.24I 80.65%NM 70.17%EV -12.40%E -10.00%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 12.25%EV -14.54%E -2.05%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 17.58%EV -14.29%E -2.89%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Grosvenor | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -2.51%E -1.82%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -17.75%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| BetRivers | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -2.51%E -1.82%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -17.75%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-08 18:24 |
| Casumo | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -2.51%E -1.82%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -17.75%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| betPARX | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -2.51%E -1.82%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -17.75%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -2.51%E -1.82%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -17.75%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Fanatics | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.04%E -4.54%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -9.09%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| TABtouch | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.40%EV -3.92%E -2.88%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -18.62%E -3.96%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.56%EV -4.63%E -3.43%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -18.62%E -3.96%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.56%EV -4.63%E -3.43%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -18.62%E -3.96%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.48%EV -8.87%E -6.87%K -30.57%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.53%EV -4.76%E -0.866%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Coral | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| BoyleSports | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -8.87%E -6.87%K -30.57%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 70.68%EV -14.52%E -12.00%K -69.13%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.22%EV -15.74%E -2.25%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.10%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.12%EV -5.33%E -3.98%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.32%EV -18.75%E -2.78%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -20.35%E -4.42%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| LeoVegas | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.45%EV -6.75%E -5.11%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.19%EV -18.75%E -2.78%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -20.35%E -4.42%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.50%EV -8.16%E -6.28%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.00%EV -18.75%E -2.78%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -22.08%E -4.91%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 69.40%EV -10.98%E -8.72%K -42.25%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.45%EV -21.76%E -3.35%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.15%EV -11.69%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54% | 0.7% | 2026-05-08 18:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54% | 0.7% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.93% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54% | 0.7% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Matchbook | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.46% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10% | 0.8% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Smarkets | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.45% | 1.3% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |
| Kalshi | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.56% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.78% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.66% | 2.1% | 2026-05-08 18:30 |