Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vålerenga v Sarpsborg FK

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 18:00 UTC

Final: Vålerenga 3–2 Sarpsborg FK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vålerenga (Local)

Prediction 50.62%1.98fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -3.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.89%50.67%50.55%52.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.811.801.9159.52%55.37%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarpsborg FK (Visit)

Prediction 25.76%3.88fair odd
EV +0.220%
Edge +0.057%
Kelly +0.076%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.04%25.73%25.85%27.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.623.603.8930.77%27.60%27.78%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.62%4.23fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.360%
Kelly -0.473%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.73%23.61%23.59%25.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.883.904.1730.30%25.81%25.64%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vålerenga (Local): 50.62%; Sarpsborg FK (Visit): 25.76%; Draw: 23.62%. For Sarpsborg FK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.220%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.08%EV -3.83%E -2.02%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.95%EV +0.220%E +0.057%K +0.076%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.97%EV -4.33%E -1.07%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-16 17:20
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -0.811%E -0.211%K -0.284%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 15:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -0.811%E -0.211%K -0.284%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 15:30
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -0.811%E -0.211%K -0.284%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -0.811%E -0.211%K -0.284%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 15:30
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -0.811%E -0.211%K -0.284%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 15:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -0.811%E -0.211%K -0.284%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 15:30
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -0.811%E -0.211%K -0.284%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 15:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -0.811%E -0.211%K -0.284%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 15:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -0.811%E -0.211%K -0.284%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 15:30
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -9.90%E -5.56%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -0.811%E -0.211%K -0.284%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 15:30
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -2.10%E -0.552%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.88%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 17:20
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -10.92%E -6.20%K -14.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -2.10%E -0.552%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.88%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.19%EV -11.93%E -6.86%K -16.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -3.39%E -0.903%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -9.06%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 15:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.19%EV -11.93%E -6.86%K -16.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -3.39%E -0.903%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -9.06%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-16 15:30
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.70%EV -3.32%E -1.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.96%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.34%EV -1.97%E -0.475%K -0.626%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-16 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.98%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.68%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.80%EV -7.40%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 17:44
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.68%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -7.88%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 17:42
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -4.68%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 17:50
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -4.68%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -10.24%E -2.69%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 17:20
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.15%EV -12.94%E -7.52%K -17.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -4.68%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -10.24%E -2.69%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-16 15:30
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -5.35%E -2.86%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -5.96%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 17:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.24%EV -14.97%E -8.91%K -22.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -5.96%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -12.60%E -3.41%K -4.67%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-16 15:30
GTbets🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.58%EV -5.86%E -3.15%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.84%EV -6.22%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.58%EV -5.75%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 17:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.91%EV -4.34%E -2.29%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -7.25%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 17:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.91%EV -4.34%E -2.29%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -7.25%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 17:45
BetAnything🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.91%EV -4.34%E -2.29%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -7.25%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -6.70%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.36%E -3.44%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.25%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 17:45
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.36%E -3.44%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.25%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -10.24%E -2.69%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-16 17:55
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -7.25%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 17:15
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -7.88%E -4.33%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -7.25%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -9.06%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 17:49
BetUS🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -7.88%E -4.33%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -7.25%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -9.06%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -7.25%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -7.88%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 17:35
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -7.25%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -11.42%E -3.05%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 17:35
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -7.25%E -2.01%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -11.42%E -3.05%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 17:20
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.84%E -2.58%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.69%EV -8.28%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.78%EV -1.50%E -0.360%K -0.473%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 17:55
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.11%EV -4.84%E -2.58%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -9.83%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.15%E -0.769%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 17:50
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.11%EV -4.84%E -2.58%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -9.83%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.15%E -0.769%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 17:50
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.35%EV -5.35%E -2.86%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -9.83%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -10.24%E -2.69%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 17:15
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -9.83%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -10.24%E -2.69%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-16 17:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.32%EV -8.39%E -4.63%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.83%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -9.06%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-16 17:45
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -9.83%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.60%E -3.41%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 17:40
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -9.83%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.60%E -3.41%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -9.83%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.60%E -3.41%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -9.83%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.60%E -3.41%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 17:40
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.83%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -14.96%E -4.16%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 17:20
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.86%EV -7.37%E -4.03%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -11.12%E -3.22%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -9.06%E -2.35%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 17:44
Bet Right🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.68%EV -10.92%E -6.20%K -14.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.85%EV -11.12%E -3.22%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -10.24%E -2.69%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-16 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.32%EV -13.45%E -7.86%K -18.94%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.59%EV -11.63%E -3.39%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -10.24%E -2.69%K -3.66%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-16 17:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -8.89%E -4.94%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.40%E -3.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -5.52%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 17:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.76%EV -12.44%E -7.19%K -17.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -12.40%E -3.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.42%EV -11.42%E -3.05%K -4.15%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-16 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.19%EV -12.44%E -7.19%K -17.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.03%EV -12.40%E -3.65%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.79%EV -22.05%E -6.68%K -9.59%G +0.000%17.5%2026-05-16 17:45
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.89%EV -6.36%E -3.44%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.00%EV -13.69%E -4.09%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -11.42%E -3.05%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.09%EV -10.92%E -6.20%K -14.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.71%EV -14.98%E -4.54%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -10.24%E -2.69%K -3.66%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-16 17:45
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.31%EV -12.44%E -7.19%K -17.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.78%EV -16.27%E -5.01%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.91%EV -10.24%E -2.69%K -3.66%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-16 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-05-16 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-05-16 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-05-16 17:55
Matchbook1.94I 51.55%NM 51.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-05-16 17:55
Smarkets1.93I 51.81%NM 51.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.32%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.51%1.3%2026-05-16 17:55