The School of Odds

Aalesund v Molde

2026-07-11 14:00 — Eliteserien - Norway

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis)

Option 1: Aalesund (Local)

Odds
2.8035.71%Min
3.0432.90%Mean
3.0033.33%Median
3.2530.77%Max
Consensus probabilities
28.86%3.465Min
31.37%3.188Max
29.99%3.335Mean
29.98%3.335Median
29.95%3.339IQM
29.99%3.334Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.25 under the IQM model: 29.95%

EV -2.67%Edge -0.822%Kelly -1.19%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Molde (Visit)

Odds
1.8753.48%Min
2.0449.06%Mean
2.0548.78%Median
2.1446.73%Max
Consensus probabilities
43.48%2.300Min
46.18%2.166Max
44.94%2.225Mean
44.95%2.225Median
44.89%2.227IQM
44.92%2.226Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.14 under the IQM model: 44.89%

EV -3.93%Edge -1.83%Kelly -3.44%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.3529.85%Min
3.6727.24%Mean
3.7027.03%Median
3.9025.64%Max
Consensus probabilities
23.80%4.202Min
26.09%3.833Max
25.07%3.988Mean
25.07%3.989Median
25.16%3.975IQM
25.09%3.986Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.90 under the IQM model: 25.16%

EV -1.88%Edge -0.482%Kelly -0.648%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

BookmakerAalesund (Local) ▼Molde (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet3.25I 30.77% NM 29.09%EV -2.67% E -0.822% K -1.19% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.01%EV -5.72% E -2.72% K -5.20% G +0.000%3.65I 27.40% NM 25.90%EV -8.17% E -2.24% K -3.08% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 03:30
Betsson3.25I 30.77% NM 29.09%EV -2.67% E -0.822% K -1.19% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.01%EV -5.72% E -2.72% K -5.20% G +0.000%3.65I 27.40% NM 25.90%EV -8.17% E -2.24% K -3.08% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 03:30
Unibet (UK)3.20I 31.25% NM 28.99%EV -4.17% E -1.30% K -1.90% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 45.25%EV -7.97% E -3.89% K -7.59% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.77%EV -9.43% E -2.62% K -3.63% G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-04 14:09
Tipico (DE)3.20I 31.25% NM 28.86%EV -4.17% E -1.30% K -1.90% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 46.18%EV -10.21% E -5.11% K -10.21% G +0.000%3.70I 27.03% NM 24.96%EV -6.91% E -1.87% K -2.56% G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-04 09:30
GTbets3.16I 31.65% NM 29.83%EV -5.37% E -1.70% K -2.49% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.89%EV -5.72% E -2.72% K -5.20% G +0.000%3.73I 26.81% NM 25.27%EV -6.16% E -1.65% K -2.26% G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 03:40
1xBet3.15I 31.75% NM 30.31%EV -5.67% E -1.80% K -2.64% G +0.000%2.14I 46.73% NM 44.62%EV -3.93% E -1.83% K -3.44% G +0.000%3.81I 26.25% NM 25.06%EV -4.14% E -1.09% K -1.48% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 10:10
Pinnacle3.12I 32.05% NM 30.58%EV -6.57% E -2.10% K -3.10% G +0.000%2.14I 46.73% NM 44.58%EV -3.93% E -1.83% K -3.44% G +0.000%3.84I 26.04% NM 24.84%EV -3.39% E -0.883% K -1.19% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-04 09:40
Fanatics3.10I 32.26% NM 29.64%EV -7.16% E -2.31% K -3.41% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 44.83%EV -7.97% E -3.89% K -7.59% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.53%EV -9.43% E -2.62% K -3.63% G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-04 09:40
Codere (IT)3.10I 32.26% NM 29.28%EV -7.16% E -2.31% K -3.41% G +0.000%2.01I 49.75% NM 45.16%EV -9.76% E -4.86% K -9.67% G +0.000%3.55I 28.17% NM 25.57%EV -10.69% E -3.01% K -4.19% G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-04 09:50
Marathon Bet3.08I 32.47% NM 30.29%EV -7.76% E -2.52% K -3.73% G +0.000%2.09I 47.85% NM 44.63%EV -6.17% E -2.95% K -5.66% G +0.000%3.72I 26.88% NM 25.08%EV -6.41% E -1.72% K -2.36% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 10:00
LeoVegas3.05I 32.79% NM 29.89%EV -8.66% E -2.84% K -4.23% G +0.000%2.02I 49.50% NM 45.13%EV -9.31% E -4.61% K -9.13% G +0.000%3.65I 27.40% NM 24.98%EV -8.17% E -2.24% K -3.08% G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-04 15:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.00I 33.33% NM 30.93%EV -10.16% E -3.39% K -5.08% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 45.27%EV -7.97% E -3.89% K -7.59% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 23.80%EV -1.88% E -0.482% K -0.648% G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-04 19:10
FanDuel3.00I 33.33% NM 30.93%EV -10.16% E -3.39% K -5.08% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 45.27%EV -7.97% E -3.89% K -7.59% G +0.000%3.90I 25.64% NM 23.80%EV -1.88% E -0.482% K -0.648% G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-04 16:40
DraftKings3.00I 33.33% NM 30.87%EV -10.16% E -3.39% K -5.08% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.10%EV -5.72% E -2.72% K -5.20% G +0.000%3.70I 27.03% NM 25.03%EV -6.91% E -1.87% K -2.56% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 12:10
SportsBet3.00I 33.33% NM 30.74%EV -10.16% E -3.39% K -5.08% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 44.99%EV -7.97% E -3.89% K -7.59% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.27%EV -4.40% E -1.16% K -1.57% G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-04 16:39
betfred_uk3.00I 33.33% NM 30.64%EV -10.16% E -3.39% K -5.08% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 44.84%EV -7.97% E -3.89% K -7.59% G +0.000%3.75I 26.67% NM 24.51%EV -5.65% E -1.51% K -2.06% G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-04 16:40
Bovada3.00I 33.33% NM 30.54%EV -10.16% E -3.39% K -5.08% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 44.69%EV -7.97% E -3.89% K -7.59% G +0.000%3.70I 27.03% NM 24.76%EV -6.91% E -1.87% K -2.56% G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-05 01:34
William Hill3.00I 33.33% NM 30.43%EV -10.16% E -3.39% K -5.08% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 43.48%EV -5.72% E -2.72% K -5.20% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.09%EV -11.94% E -3.41% K -4.78% G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-04 09:45
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33% NM 30.30%EV -10.16% E -3.39% K -5.08% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 45.45%EV -10.21% E -5.11% K -10.21% G +0.000%3.75I 26.67% NM 24.24%EV -5.65% E -1.51% K -2.06% G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-04 16:39
Betclic (FR)3.00I 33.33% NM 29.25%EV -10.16% E -3.39% K -5.08% G +0.000%1.93I 51.81% NM 45.46%EV -13.35% E -6.92% K -14.36% G +0.000%3.47I 28.82% NM 25.29%EV -12.70% E -3.66% K -5.14% G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-04 09:50
Betway2.90I 34.48% NM 31.37%EV -13.15% E -4.54% K -6.92% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 44.37%EV -7.97% E -3.89% K -7.59% G +0.000%3.75I 26.67% NM 24.26%EV -5.65% E -1.51% K -2.06% G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-04 18:15
Winamax (DE)2.90I 34.48% NM 29.95%EV -13.15% E -4.54% K -6.92% G +0.000%1.92I 52.08% NM 45.24%EV -13.80% E -7.19% K -15.00% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 24.82%EV -11.94% E -3.41% K -4.78% G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-04 09:49
BoyleSports2.88I 34.72% NM 29.74%EV -13.75% E -4.78% K -7.32% G +0.000%1.87I 53.48% NM 45.80%EV -16.05% E -8.58% K -18.45% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 24.47%EV -11.94% E -3.41% K -4.78% G +0.000%16.8%2026-07-04 09:50
Sky Bet2.80I 35.71% NM 30.90%EV -16.15% E -5.77% K -8.97% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 44.37%EV -12.46% E -6.39% K -13.11% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 24.72%EV -11.94% E -3.41% K -4.78% G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-04 16:40
Winamax (FR)2.80I 35.71% NM 30.07%EV -16.15% E -5.77% K -8.97% G +0.000%1.88I 53.19% NM 44.79%EV -15.60% E -8.30% K -17.73% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 25.14%EV -15.72% E -4.69% K -6.69% G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-04 09:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerAalesund (Local)Molde (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.98I 33.56%1.97I 50.76%3.45I 28.99%13.3%2026-07-04 14:10