Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aalesund v Fredrikstad FK

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aalesund (Local)

Prediction 39.19%2.55fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.810%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.14%39.21%39.24%40.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.372.382.5046.51%42.23%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fredrikstad FK (Visit)

Prediction 34.37%2.91fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.840%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.32%34.32%34.40%36.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.682.702.8441.67%37.30%37.04%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.44%3.78fair odd
EV -0.854%
Edge -0.228%
Kelly -0.311%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.35%26.47%26.37%28.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.453.453.7533.33%28.98%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aalesund (Local): 39.19%; Fredrikstad FK (Visit): 34.37%; Draw: 26.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -0.854%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84%EV -2.02%E -0.810%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.19%EV -2.39%E -0.840%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-07 16:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84%EV -2.02%E -0.810%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.19%EV -2.39%E -0.840%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-07 16:15
Coolbet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.12%EV -2.81%E -1.13%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.65%EV -3.76%E -1.34%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%EV -2.18%E -0.588%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-07 16:39
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.16%EV -3.20%E -1.30%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.55%EV -3.76%E -1.34%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.29%EV -2.71%E -0.735%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-07 16:15
BetAnything🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.89%EV -3.98%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-07 16:14
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -3.98%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -7.46%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-07 16:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -3.98%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-07 16:25
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -3.98%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-07 16:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -3.98%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-07 16:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -3.98%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-07 16:24
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -3.98%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-07 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.45%EV -3.98%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-07 16:25
GTbets🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.80%EV -4.38%E -1.79%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.33%EV -7.89%E -2.94%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.87%EV -3.23%E -0.884%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-07 05:50
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.49%EV -4.77%E -1.96%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.01%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-07 16:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.49%EV -4.77%E -1.96%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.01%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-07 16:25
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.25%EV -4.77%E -1.96%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-07 16:24
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.25%EV -4.77%E -1.96%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-07 16:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.69%EV -5.55%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.05%EV -8.57%E -3.22%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -6.14%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-07 16:10
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-07 16:44
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.14%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-07 16:00
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.87%EV -4.45%E -1.60%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -7.46%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-07 16:55
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.46%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-07 16:15
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-07 16:50
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.38%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -11.43%E -3.41%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-07 16:25
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -9.95%E -3.80%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-07 16:10
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.95%EV -6.73%E -2.83%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.70%EV -5.82%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.35%EV -0.854%E -0.228%K -0.311%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-07 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -6.73%E -2.83%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-07 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -6.73%E -2.83%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.29%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -12.75%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-07 16:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.18%EV -6.73%E -2.83%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.29%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -12.75%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-07 16:24
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -7.90%E -3.36%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -2.18%E -0.588%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-07 16:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -7.90%E -3.36%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -4.82%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-07 16:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -7.90%E -3.36%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.46%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-07 15:44
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -7.90%E -3.36%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.46%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-07 16:43
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.94%EV -7.90%E -3.36%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.53%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-07 16:14
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.79%EV -7.90%E -3.36%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-07 15:49
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -7.90%E -3.36%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-07 15:35
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.38%EV -7.90%E -3.36%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.29%EV -9.60%E -3.65%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -12.75%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-07 16:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.25%EV -9.08%E -3.91%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -8.92%E -3.37%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-07 16:05
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.46%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-07 16:45
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.46%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-07 16:35
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-07 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.49%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -6.14%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-07 16:05
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -9.95%E -3.80%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-07 15:45
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.01%EV -9.60%E -3.65%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -12.75%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-07 16:44
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -12.75%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-07 16:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -12.75%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-07 16:15
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -12.75%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-07 16:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -12.75%E -3.86%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-07 16:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -15.40%E -4.81%K -7.00%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-07 16:24
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.47%EV -11.82%E -5.25%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.07%EV -17.51%E -7.30%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.46%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-07 14:01
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.95%EV -13.78%E -6.26%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -10.64%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -11.43%E -3.41%K -4.86%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-07 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.84%EV -13.78%E -6.26%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.38%EV -12.35%E -4.84%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-07 16:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.27%EV -13.78%E -6.26%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.67%EV -14.07%E -5.63%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.06%EV -20.68%E -6.89%K -10.34%G +0.000%18.8%2026-04-07 16:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.76%EV -15.74%E -7.32%K -13.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.32%EV -9.60%E -3.65%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 25.93%EV -10.64%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-07 16:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.49%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-04-07 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.68%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.21%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-04-07 16:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.68%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.21%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-04-07 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.68%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.21%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-04-07 16:30
Smarkets2.46I 40.65%NM 39.84%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.03%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.13%2.0%2026-04-07 16:55