Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Willem II v Fortuna Sittard

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 19:00 UTC

Final: Willem II 0–1 Fortuna Sittard

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Willem II (Local)

Prediction 38.25%2.61fair odd
EV -0.550%
Edge -0.212%
Kelly -0.344%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.03%38.25%38.28%39.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.452.452.6044.44%40.88%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortuna Sittard (Visit)

Prediction 36.07%2.77fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.970%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.00%36.10%36.10%37.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.572.602.7041.67%38.85%38.46%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.68%3.89fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.291%
Kelly -0.393%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.85%25.66%25.62%26.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.583.603.8530.30%27.90%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Willem II (Local): 38.25%; Fortuna Sittard (Visit): 36.07%; Draw: 25.68%. For Willem II (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -0.550%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.51%EV -0.550%E -0.212%K -0.344%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.12%EV -2.62%E -0.970%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.36%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-19 18:55
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.83%EV -2.08%E -0.813%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.41%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.76%EV -3.43%E -0.913%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-19 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.58%EV -2.46%E -0.966%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.16%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -6.26%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-19 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.58%EV -2.46%E -0.966%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.16%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -6.26%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-19 18:55
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.20%EV -2.46%E -0.966%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.07%EV -5.14%E -1.96%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -8.83%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-19 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.57%EV -3.61%E -1.43%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.13%EV -5.50%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 18:15
1xBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.24%EV -3.99%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.09%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.67%EV -3.95%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-19 18:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.98%EV -3.99%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.80%EV -6.59%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.22%EV -2.92%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-17 03:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.98%EV -3.99%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.80%EV -6.59%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.22%EV -2.92%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-17 02:59
BetAnything🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.98%EV -3.99%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.80%EV -6.59%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.22%EV -2.92%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-17 03:01
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -3.69%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-19 18:19
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -3.69%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-19 18:13
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 18:35
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 18:33
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 18:55
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 18:55
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 18:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 18:19
Bovada🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.69%EV -4.76%E -1.91%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.24%EV -6.59%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 18:53
Betsson🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.56%EV -4.76%E -1.91%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.25%EV -6.95%E -2.69%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.20%EV -8.31%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 18:15
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -5.14%E -2.07%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.39%E -3.30%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 18:54
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.78%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.68%EV -1.12%E -0.291%K -0.393%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.66%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.74%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 18:35
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.66%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.74%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 18:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -6.26%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 18:39
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 18:54
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.41%E -0.633%K -0.859%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -5.50%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 18:34
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -5.50%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 18:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.34%EV -7.67%E -3.00%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.70%EV -7.03%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 18:54
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-19 18:53
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:34
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:34
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.22%EV -7.05%E -2.90%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.18%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.22%EV -7.05%E -2.90%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.18%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.22%EV -7.05%E -2.90%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.18%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 18:54
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.22%EV -7.05%E -2.90%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.18%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 18:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.74%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.46%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -3.69%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 18:34
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.50%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 18:55
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.47%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -8.83%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 18:55
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 18:34
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.26%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -10.55%E -4.26%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -13.96%E -4.17%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-19 18:55
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.97%E -3.77%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -3.69%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 18:34
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -8.97%E -3.77%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-19 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.70%EV -10.11%E -4.30%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.38%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -6.26%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-19 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.18%EV -11.26%E -4.85%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.15%EV -11.64%E -4.75%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.67%EV -11.39%E -3.30%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-19 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -12.03%E -5.23%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-19 18:35
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -12.03%E -5.23%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.27%EV -13.44%E -5.60%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -3.69%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-19 18:35
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -12.03%E -5.23%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -15.25%E -4.62%K -6.63%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-19 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.74%EV -13.94%E -6.19%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.19%EV -8.83%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-19 18:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.69%EV -13.94%E -6.19%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.30%EV -9.34%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-19 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.55%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.18%0.5%2026-09-19 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.18%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.12%0.7%2026-09-19 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.18%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.12%0.7%2026-09-19 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.18%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.12%0.7%2026-09-19 18:50
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.54%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.49%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-09-19 18:55
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.1%2026-09-19 18:39