Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Willem II v Fortuna Sittard

Inicio: 2026-09-19 19:00 UTC

Final: Willem II 0–1 Fortuna Sittard

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Willem II (Local)

Predicción 38.25%2.61momio equitativo
EV -0.550%
Ventaja -0.212%
Kelly -0.344%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.03%38.25%38.28%39.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.452.452.6044.44%40.88%40.82%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fortuna Sittard (Visitante)

Predicción 36.07%2.77momio equitativo
EV -2.62%
Ventaja -0.970%
Kelly -1.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.00%36.10%36.10%37.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.572.602.7041.67%38.85%38.46%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.68%3.89momio equitativo
EV -1.12%
Ventaja -0.291%
Kelly -0.393%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.85%25.66%25.62%26.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.583.603.8530.30%27.90%27.78%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Willem II (Local): 38.25%; Fortuna Sittard (Visitante): 36.07%; Empate: 25.68%. Para Willem II (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.61. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.60, con un valor esperado de -0.550%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.51%EV -0.550%E -0.212%K -0.344%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.12%EV -2.62%E -0.970%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.36%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.5%2026-09-19 18:55
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.83%EV -2.08%E -0.813%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.41%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.76%EV -3.43%E -0.913%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-19 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.58%EV -2.46%E -0.966%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.16%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -6.26%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-19 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.58%EV -2.46%E -0.966%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.16%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -6.26%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-19 18:55
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.20%EV -2.46%E -0.966%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.07%EV -5.14%E -1.96%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -8.83%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-19 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.57%EV -3.61%E -1.43%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.13%EV -5.50%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 18:15
1xBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.24%EV -3.99%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.09%EV -4.06%E -1.53%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.67%EV -3.95%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-19 18:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.98%EV -3.99%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.80%EV -6.59%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.22%EV -2.92%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-17 03:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.98%EV -3.99%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.80%EV -6.59%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.22%EV -2.92%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-17 02:59
BetAnything🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.98%EV -3.99%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.80%EV -6.59%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.22%EV -2.92%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-17 03:01
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -3.69%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-19 18:19
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -3.69%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-19 18:13
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 18:35
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 18:33
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 18:55
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 18:55
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 18:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.38%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 18:19
Bovada🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.69%EV -4.76%E -1.91%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.24%EV -6.59%E -2.54%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 18:53
Betsson🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.56%EV -4.76%E -1.91%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.25%EV -6.95%E -2.69%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.20%EV -8.31%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 18:15
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -5.14%E -2.07%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.39%E -3.30%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 18:54
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.78%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.68%EV -1.12%E -0.291%K -0.393%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.66%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.74%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 18:35
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.66%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.74%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 18:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -6.26%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 18:39
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 18:54
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.41%E -0.633%K -0.859%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -5.50%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 18:34
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -5.50%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 18:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.34%EV -7.67%E -3.00%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.70%EV -7.03%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 18:54
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-19 18:53
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:34
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:34
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.29%E -2.57%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.22%EV -7.05%E -2.90%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.18%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.22%EV -7.05%E -2.90%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.18%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.22%EV -7.05%E -2.90%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.18%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 18:54
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.22%EV -7.05%E -2.90%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.18%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 18:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.74%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.46%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -3.69%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 18:34
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.50%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 18:55
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.47%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -8.83%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 18:55
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -4.97%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 18:34
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.26%EV -8.20%E -3.42%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.05%EV -10.55%E -4.26%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -13.96%E -4.17%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-19 18:55
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.97%E -3.77%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -3.69%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 18:34
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -8.97%E -3.77%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -6.23%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-19 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.70%EV -10.11%E -4.30%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.38%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -6.26%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-19 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.18%EV -11.26%E -4.85%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.15%EV -11.64%E -4.75%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.67%EV -11.39%E -3.30%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-19 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -12.03%E -5.23%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -7.54%E -2.09%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-19 18:35
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -12.03%E -5.23%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.27%EV -13.44%E -5.60%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -3.69%E -0.984%K -1.34%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-19 18:35
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -12.03%E -5.23%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -15.25%E -4.62%K -6.63%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-19 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.74%EV -13.94%E -6.19%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.19%EV -8.83%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-19 18:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.69%EV -13.94%E -6.19%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.30%EV -9.34%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-19 18:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.55%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.18%0.5%2026-09-19 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.18%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.12%0.7%2026-09-19 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.18%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.12%0.7%2026-09-19 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.18%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.12%0.7%2026-09-19 18:50
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.54%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.49%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-09-19 18:55
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.89%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.1%2026-09-19 18:39