Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.21
assuming max odds 14.50
assuming max odds 9.26
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PSV Eindhoven (Local): 79.96%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visit): 8.28%; Draw: 11.76%. For Sparta Rotterdam (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.07. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.12%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.39%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.52%EV +20.12%E +1.39%K +1.49%G +0.300% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.10%EV -21.20%E -3.16%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.39%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.52%EV +20.12%E +1.39%K +1.49%G +0.300% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.10%EV -21.20%E -3.16%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.20%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.43%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.63%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.38%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.63%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.38%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.46%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-13 17:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.46%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-13 17:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.01%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -20.61%E -3.05%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.10%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 12.76I 7.84%NM 7.53%EV +5.70%E +0.447%K +0.485%G +0.028% | 9.26I 10.80%NM 10.37%EV +8.91%E +0.962%K +1.08%G +0.096% | 4.1% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.66%EV -3.25%E -2.69%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 12.70I 7.87%NM 7.59%EV +5.21%E +0.410%K +0.445%G +0.023% | 7.56I 13.23%NM 12.75%EV -11.09%E -1.47%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-13 17:56 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.52%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.60%EV +3.55%E +0.284%K +0.309%G +0.011% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.88%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 12.25I 8.16%NM 7.79%EV +1.48%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +5.85%E +0.650%K +0.731%G +0.043% | 4.7% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 12.25I 8.16%NM 7.79%EV +1.48%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +5.85%E +0.650%K +0.731%G +0.043% | 4.7% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 12.25I 8.16%NM 7.79%EV +1.48%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +5.85%E +0.650%K +0.731%G +0.043% | 4.7% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 12.25I 8.16%NM 7.79%EV +1.48%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +5.85%E +0.650%K +0.731%G +0.043% | 4.7% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.92%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.96%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.96%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.86%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.17%EV -8.85%E -1.14%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.65%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.80%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.55%EV -4.74%E -0.585%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-13 17:56 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.23%EV -8.05%E -7.00%K -53.68%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.23%EV -8.05%E -7.00%K -53.68%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 17:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.37%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -4.73%E -0.412%K -0.451%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-13 17:11 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.37%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -4.73%E -0.412%K -0.451%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-13 17:11 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.37%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -4.73%E -0.412%K -0.451%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-13 17:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.29%EV -3.25%E -2.69%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.72%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.56%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-13 17:56 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.56%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-13 17:56 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.52%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-13 17:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.52%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.52%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.39%EV -9.65%E -8.54%K -74.24%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.53%EV -10.45%E -9.33%K -87.09%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.20%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.27%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 80.67%EV -11.25%E -10.14%K -102.27%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.14%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.72%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-13 17:11 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.50%EV -8.05%E -7.00%K -53.68%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.60%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-13 17:16 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.92%EV -10.45%E -9.33%K -87.09%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.53%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.55%EV -8.85%E -1.14%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.19%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -17.16%E -1.72%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV +5.85%E +0.650%K +0.731%G +0.043% | 6.6% | 2026-09-13 17:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.66%EV -8.85%E -7.76%K -63.22%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -17.16%E -1.72%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.37%EV -14.73%E -2.03%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-13 17:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.01%EV -9.65%E -8.54%K -74.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -17.16%E -1.72%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.06%EV -12.97%E -1.75%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-13 17:56 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.18%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -21.30%E -2.24%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 78.10%EV -9.65%E -8.54%K -74.24%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.29%EV -21.30%E -2.24%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.21%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -25.44%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.71%EV -8.85%E -1.14%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-13 17:56 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 77.91%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -25.44%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-13 17:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.80% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.85% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35% | 0.6% | 2026-09-13 17:56 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.80% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.85% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35% | 0.6% | 2026-09-13 17:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.60% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.08% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.32% | 0.9% | 2026-09-13 17:56 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.42% | 14.01I 7.14%NM 7.06% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52% | 1.1% | 2026-09-13 17:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.41% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.06% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52% | 1.1% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.24% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.86% | 1.3% | 2026-09-13 17:50 |