Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

PSV Eindhoven v Sparta Rotterdam

Inicio: 2026-09-13 18:00 UTC

Final: PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Sparta Rotterdam

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

PSV Eindhoven (Local)

Predicción 79.96%1.25momio equitativo
EV -3.25%
Ventaja -2.69%
Kelly -15.50%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
77.91%79.92%79.78%82.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.111.171.171.2190.09%85.59%85.47%82.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sparta Rotterdam (Visitante)

Predicción 8.28%12.07momio equitativo
EV +20.12%
Ventaja +1.39%
Kelly +1.49%
Crecimiento +0.300%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 14.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.52%8.32%8.41%10.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
9.0011.4311.0014.5011.11%8.75%9.09%6.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 11.76%8.50momio equitativo
EV +8.91%
Ventaja +0.962%
Kelly +1.08%
Crecimiento +0.096%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.37%11.76%11.81%14.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.707.807.759.2614.93%12.82%12.90%10.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: PSV Eindhoven (Local): 79.96%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visitante): 8.28%; Empate: 11.76%. Para Sparta Rotterdam (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 12.07. 15 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 14.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +20.12%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.39%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.52%EV +20.12%E +1.39%K +1.49%G +0.300%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.10%EV -21.20%E -3.16%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 17:45
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.39%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.52%EV +20.12%E +1.39%K +1.49%G +0.300%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.10%EV -21.20%E -3.16%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 17:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.20%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.43%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-13 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.63%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.38%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-13 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.63%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.38%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-13 17:50
betano_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.46%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-13 17:35
Bet Victor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.46%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-13 17:35
PlayUp🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.01%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV +7.69%E +0.592%K +0.641%G +0.049%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -20.61%E -3.05%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 17:50
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.10%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%12.76I 7.84%NM 7.53%EV +5.70%E +0.447%K +0.485%G +0.028%9.26I 10.80%NM 10.37%EV +8.91%E +0.962%K +1.08%G +0.096%4.1%2026-09-13 17:50
1xBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.66%EV -3.25%E -2.69%K -15.50%G +0.000%12.70I 7.87%NM 7.59%EV +5.21%E +0.410%K +0.445%G +0.023%7.56I 13.23%NM 12.75%EV -11.09%E -1.47%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-13 17:56
Grosvenor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.52%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.60%EV +3.55%E +0.284%K +0.309%G +0.011%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.88%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 17:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.79%EV +1.48%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +5.85%E +0.650%K +0.731%G +0.043%4.7%2026-09-13 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.79%EV +1.48%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +5.85%E +0.650%K +0.731%G +0.043%4.7%2026-09-13 17:50
BetUS🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.79%EV +1.48%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +5.85%E +0.650%K +0.731%G +0.043%4.7%2026-09-13 17:50
BetAnything🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.60%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.79%EV +1.48%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +5.85%E +0.650%K +0.731%G +0.043%4.7%2026-09-13 17:50
Coolbet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.92%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-13 17:45
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.96%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 17:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.96%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.86%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.17%EV -8.85%E -1.14%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 17:45
Fanatics🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 17:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.65%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.80%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.55%EV -4.74%E -0.585%K -0.667%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 17:56
SportsBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.23%EV -8.05%E -7.00%K -53.68%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.23%EV -8.05%E -7.00%K -53.68%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -0.593%E -0.049%K -0.054%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 17:40
Casumo🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.37%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -4.73%E -0.412%K -0.451%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:11
Unibet (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.37%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -4.73%E -0.412%K -0.451%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:11
betPARX🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.37%EV -5.65%E -4.79%K -31.41%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -4.73%E -0.412%K -0.451%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:09
BetMGM🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.29%EV -3.25%E -2.69%K -15.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.72%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-13 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-13 17:45
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.42%EV -4.05%E -3.38%K -20.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-13 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.56%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 17:56
Codere (IT)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.56%EV -4.85%E -4.08%K -25.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 17:56
Bovada🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.52%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -0.031%E -0.004%K -0.004%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 17:45
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 17:45
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 17:45
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 17:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.22%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 17:45
betfred_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.52%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 17:45
Bet Right🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.52%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 17:45
FanDuel🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.39%EV -9.65%E -8.54%K -74.24%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.53%EV -10.45%E -9.33%K -87.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.20%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.27%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 17:50
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.67%EV -11.25%E -10.14%K -102.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.14%EV -8.88%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -5.91%E -0.739%K -0.845%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 17:50
BetRivers🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.72%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 17:11
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 17:00
TABtouch🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.50%EV -8.05%E -7.00%K -53.68%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.60%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-13 17:16
NetBet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.92%EV -10.45%E -9.33%K -87.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.53%EV -13.02%E -1.24%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.55%EV -8.85%E -1.14%K -1.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 17:55
Betway🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.19%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -17.16%E -1.72%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV +5.85%E +0.650%K +0.731%G +0.043%6.6%2026-09-13 17:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.66%EV -8.85%E -7.76%K -63.22%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -17.16%E -1.72%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.37%EV -14.73%E -2.03%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-13 17:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.01%EV -9.65%E -8.54%K -74.24%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -17.16%E -1.72%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.06%EV -12.97%E -1.75%K -2.03%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 17:56
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.18%EV -6.45%E -5.52%K -37.96%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -21.30%E -2.24%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.10%EV -9.65%E -8.54%K -74.24%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.29%EV -21.30%E -2.24%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -17.67%E -2.52%K -2.95%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-13 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.21%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -25.44%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.71%EV -8.85%E -1.14%K -1.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 17:56
Winamax (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.91%EV -7.25%E -6.25%K -45.33%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -25.44%E -2.83%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -11.79%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 17:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.80%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.85%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35%0.6%2026-09-13 17:56
Matchbook◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.80%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.85%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35%0.6%2026-09-13 17:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.60%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.08%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.32%0.9%2026-09-13 17:56
Smarkets◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.42%14.01I 7.14%NM 7.06%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52%1.1%2026-09-13 17:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.41%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.06%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52%1.1%2026-09-13 17:50
Kalshi◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.24%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.86%1.3%2026-09-13 17:50