Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.31
assuming max odds 10.50
assuming max odds 7.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PSV Eindhoven (Local): 74.08%; Groningen (Visit): 10.98%; Draw: 14.93%. For Groningen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.10. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.34%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.39%EV -5.91%E -4.66%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +15.34%E +1.46%K +1.61%G +0.248% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.37%EV +0.785%E +0.116%K +0.137%G +0.001% | 3.1% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.53%EV -6.65%E -5.28%K -25.59%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.18%EV +15.34%E +1.46%K +1.61%G +0.248% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.29%EV +0.785%E +0.116%K +0.137%G +0.001% | 3.7% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.53%EV -6.65%E -5.28%K -25.59%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.18%EV +15.34%E +1.46%K +1.61%G +0.248% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.29%EV +0.785%E +0.116%K +0.137%G +0.001% | 3.7% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.94%EV -2.95%E -2.25%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 10.20I 9.80%NM 9.50%EV +12.05%E +1.18%K +1.31%G +0.158% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.56%EV -12.65%E -2.16%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -6.65%E -5.28%K -25.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV +9.85%E +0.985%K +1.09%G +0.108% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.74%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV +9.85%E +0.985%K +1.09%G +0.108% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -4.44%E -0.694%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.33%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +4.36%E +0.459%K +0.513%G +0.022% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV +4.52%E +0.645%K +0.753%G +0.034% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 12:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.33%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +4.36%E +0.459%K +0.513%G +0.022% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV +4.52%E +0.645%K +0.753%G +0.034% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.10%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +4.36%E +0.459%K +0.513%G +0.022% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.10%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +4.36%E +0.459%K +0.513%G +0.022% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.10%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +4.36%E +0.459%K +0.513%G +0.022% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.36%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.18%EV +2.16%E +0.232%K +0.260%G +0.006% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -14.15%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.36%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.18%EV +2.16%E +0.232%K +0.260%G +0.006% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -14.15%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.33%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.18%EV +1.61%E +0.174%K +0.195%G +0.003% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.59%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.90%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.00%EV +1.61%E +0.174%K +0.195%G +0.003% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-23 12:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV -1.14%E -0.126%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 12:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.69%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -1.14%E -0.126%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.94%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -1.14%E -0.126%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.04%EV -7.43%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 12:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -1.14%E -0.126%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.42%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 8.88I 11.26%NM 10.81%EV -2.45%E -0.276%K -0.311%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.77%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.82%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -4.43%E -0.509%K -0.575%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.06%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.24%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-23 12:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.98%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.23%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.80%EV -3.69%E -0.573%K -0.678%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 11:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.98%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.23%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.80%EV -3.69%E -0.573%K -0.678%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 11:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.98%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.23%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.80%EV -3.69%E -0.573%K -0.678%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 11:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.21%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 12:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.21%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 12:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.36%EV -5.91%E -4.66%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.11%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 12:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.17%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.93%EV -5.91%E -4.66%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.66%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-23 09:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.93%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.90%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-23 12:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.93%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.90%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -14.15%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-23 12:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.70%EV -8.88%E -7.22%K -38.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -13.40%E -2.31%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.70%EV -8.88%E -7.22%K -38.59%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -13.40%E -2.31%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.02%EV -10.36%E -8.56%K -49.33%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -13.40%E -2.31%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.02%EV -10.36%E -8.56%K -49.33%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -13.40%E -2.31%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.02%EV -10.36%E -8.56%K -49.33%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -13.40%E -2.31%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.56%EV -11.10%E -9.25%K -55.50%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-23 12:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.56%EV -11.10%E -9.25%K -55.50%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-23 12:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.94%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.47%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.27%EV -7.73%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -4.44%E -0.694%K -0.822%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-23 12:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -11.10%E -9.25%K -55.50%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 10.84%EV -9.37%E -1.14%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.66%EV -8.92%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 12:23 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.15%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.62%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.90%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.97%EV -8.92%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-23 12:13 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -9.62%E -7.88%K -43.72%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-23 12:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.20%EV -8.88%E -7.22%K -38.59%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.54%EV -14.32%E -1.84%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.26%EV -11.91%E -2.02%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-23 12:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.12%EV -17.61%E -2.35%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-23 12:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.86%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -20.36%E -2.81%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-23 12:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.26%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.90%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -23.11%E -3.30%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.93%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-23 12:15 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.22% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.88% | 0.9% | 2026-08-23 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.05% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.42% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.54% | 1.2% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.05% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.42% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.54% | 1.2% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.05% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.42% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.54% | 1.2% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.04% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.99% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.98% | 1.2% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.19% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.36% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45% | 1.7% | 2026-08-23 12:25 |