The School of Odds
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PSV Eindhoven v Groningen

2026-08-23 12:30 UTC — Dutch Eredivisie

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

PSV Eindhoven (Local)

Prediction 68.96%1.45fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -8.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.56%68.85%69.25%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.331.4076.92%74.29%74.91%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Groningen (Visit)

Prediction 13.62%7.34fair odd
EV +5.54%
Edge +0.715%
Kelly +0.821%
Growth +0.045%

assuming max odds 7.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.36%13.70%13.38%16.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.737.007.7518.52%14.87%14.29%12.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.42%5.74fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -0.435%
Kelly -0.529%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.72%17.45%17.37%19.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.195.255.6021.74%19.26%19.05%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: PSV Eindhoven (Local): 68.96%; Groningen (Visit): 13.62%; Draw: 17.42%. For Groningen (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.34. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 7.75, producing a positive expected value of +5.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.42%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.26%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.36%EV +5.54%E +0.715%K +0.821%G +0.045%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.22%EV -3.13%E -0.563%K -0.687%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-16 11:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.13%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV +2.13%E +0.285%K +0.328%G +0.007%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.43%EV -6.79%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 10:54
Coolbet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.54%EV -5.53%E -4.03%K -14.93%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.14%EV -1.27%E -0.175%K -0.203%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.32%EV -4.18%E -0.759%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 11:10
PlayUp🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.28%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.73%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.71%EV -1.27%E -0.175%K -0.203%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.01%EV -15.50%E -3.20%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 12:39
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.70%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.26%G +0.000%7.09I 14.10%NM 13.37%EV -3.45%E -0.486%K -0.566%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.93%EV -2.43%E -0.435%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 11:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.53%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -4.18%E -0.759%K -0.928%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 11:09
Fanatics🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.53%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -4.18%E -0.759%K -0.928%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 10:55
Bovada🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.53%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -4.18%E -0.759%K -0.928%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.31%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -5.92%E -1.10%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 11:09
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.46%EV -7.59%E -5.67%K -22.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -5.92%E -1.10%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 11:09
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -4.18%E -0.759%K -0.928%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 13:43
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -4.18%E -0.759%K -0.928%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 13:44
William Hill🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -12.89%E -2.58%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-16 10:54
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -12.89%E -2.58%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 11:10
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -12.89%E -2.58%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 10:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -12.89%E -2.58%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 10:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -12.89%E -2.58%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 10:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -4.67%E -0.668%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -12.89%E -2.58%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 12:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -3.46%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -11.48%E -1.77%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -8.53%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 12:35
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -3.46%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -11.48%E -1.77%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -8.53%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 12:35
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -3.46%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -11.48%E -1.77%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -8.53%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 12:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.95%EV -5.53%E -4.03%K -14.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -11.48%E -1.77%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -8.53%E -1.63%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 11:04
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -11.48%E -1.77%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.72%EV -4.18%E -0.759%K -0.928%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:24
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -10.35%E -7.96%K -34.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -11.48%E -1.77%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -12.89%E -2.58%K -3.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-16 12:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.52%EV -4.84%E -3.50%K -12.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -12.84%E -2.01%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -9.40%E -1.81%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 11:09
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -18.29%E -3.05%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -12.89%E -2.58%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 13:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.29%EV -8.97%E -6.80%K -28.04%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.09%EV -21.02%E -3.62%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.62%EV -18.11%E -3.85%K -4.90%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-16 11:04
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.77%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.21%EV -21.70%E -3.77%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.02%EV -19.86%E -4.32%K -5.52%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-16 11:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.27%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.74%EV -23.74%E -4.24%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.99%EV -14.63%E -2.99%K -3.75%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-16 11:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 65.56%EV -8.97%E -6.80%K -28.04%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.03%EV -26.46%E -4.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.41%EV -18.11%E -3.85%K -4.90%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-16 11:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.37I 72.99%NM 67.60%6.67I 14.99%NM 13.88%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%8.0%2026-08-16 14:20
Smarkets◎1.33I 75.19%NM 66.12%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.16%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%13.7%2026-08-16 12:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 35.20%1.14I 87.72%NM 32.11%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.69%173.2%2026-08-16 13:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 35.20%1.14I 87.72%NM 32.11%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.69%173.2%2026-08-16 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 35.20%1.14I 87.72%NM 32.11%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.69%173.2%2026-08-16 13:40

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