Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

PSV Eindhoven v Groningen

Inicio: 2026-08-23 12:30 UTC

Final: PSV Eindhoven 5–1 Groningen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

PSV Eindhoven (Local)

Predicción 74.08%1.35momio equitativo
EV -2.95%
Ventaja -2.25%
Kelly -9.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.64%73.96%74.06%76.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.201.261.251.3183.33%79.52%80.00%76.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Groningen (Visitante)

Predicción 10.98%9.10momio equitativo
EV +15.34%
Ventaja +1.46%
Kelly +1.61%
Crecimiento +0.248%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.18%10.98%10.99%12.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.008.738.5010.5014.29%11.45%11.76%9.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 14.93%6.70momio equitativo
EV +4.52%
Ventaja +0.645%
Kelly +0.753%
Crecimiento +0.034%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.63%15.06%14.95%16.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.506.136.107.0018.18%16.32%16.39%14.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: PSV Eindhoven (Local): 74.08%; Groningen (Visitante): 10.98%; Empate: 14.93%. Para Groningen (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 9.10. 15 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 10.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +15.34%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.39%EV -5.91%E -4.66%K -21.90%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +15.34%E +1.46%K +1.61%G +0.248%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.37%EV +0.785%E +0.116%K +0.137%G +0.001%3.1%2026-08-23 12:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.53%EV -6.65%E -5.28%K -25.59%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.18%EV +15.34%E +1.46%K +1.61%G +0.248%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.29%EV +0.785%E +0.116%K +0.137%G +0.001%3.7%2026-08-23 12:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.53%EV -6.65%E -5.28%K -25.59%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.18%EV +15.34%E +1.46%K +1.61%G +0.248%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.29%EV +0.785%E +0.116%K +0.137%G +0.001%3.7%2026-08-23 12:25
1xBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.94%EV -2.95%E -2.25%K -9.52%G +0.000%10.20I 9.80%NM 9.50%EV +12.05%E +1.18%K +1.31%G +0.158%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.56%EV -12.65%E -2.16%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 12:25
Coolbet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -6.65%E -5.28%K -25.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV +9.85%E +0.985%K +1.09%G +0.108%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 12:20
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.74%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV +9.85%E +0.985%K +1.09%G +0.108%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -4.44%E -0.694%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 12:25
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.33%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +4.36%E +0.459%K +0.513%G +0.022%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV +4.52%E +0.645%K +0.753%G +0.034%4.8%2026-08-23 12:24
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.33%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +4.36%E +0.459%K +0.513%G +0.022%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV +4.52%E +0.645%K +0.753%G +0.034%4.8%2026-08-23 12:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.10%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +4.36%E +0.459%K +0.513%G +0.022%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 12:25
Casumo🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.10%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +4.36%E +0.459%K +0.513%G +0.022%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 12:25
betPARX🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.10%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +4.36%E +0.459%K +0.513%G +0.022%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 12:25
NordicBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.36%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.18%EV +2.16%E +0.232%K +0.260%G +0.006%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -14.15%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 12:25
Betsson🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.36%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.18%EV +2.16%E +0.232%K +0.260%G +0.006%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -14.15%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 12:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.33%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.18%EV +1.61%E +0.174%K +0.195%G +0.003%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 12:20
SportsBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.59%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.90%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.00%EV +1.61%E +0.174%K +0.195%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-23 12:15
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV -1.14%E -0.126%K -0.142%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 12:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.69%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -1.14%E -0.126%K -0.142%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.94%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 12:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -1.14%E -0.126%K -0.142%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.04%EV -7.43%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 12:10
Unibet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -1.14%E -0.126%K -0.142%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 12:25
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.42%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.88I 11.26%NM 10.81%EV -2.45%E -0.276%K -0.311%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.77%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-23 12:25
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.82%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -4.43%E -0.509%K -0.575%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 12:25
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.06%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.24%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 12:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.98%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.23%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.80%EV -3.69%E -0.573%K -0.678%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 11:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.98%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.23%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.80%EV -3.69%E -0.573%K -0.678%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 11:25
BetAnything🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.98%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.23%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.80%EV -3.69%E -0.573%K -0.678%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 11:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.21%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.47%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 12:15
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.21%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.47%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 12:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.36%EV -5.91%E -4.66%K -21.90%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.11%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 12:14
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.17%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 12:20
Bovada🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.93%EV -5.91%E -4.66%K -21.90%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 12:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.66%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 12:20
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.47%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-23 12:25
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-23 09:40
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.93%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.90%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 12:04
Bet Right🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.93%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.90%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 12:20
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -14.15%E -2.46%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 12:14
TABtouch🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.70%EV -8.88%E -7.22%K -38.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -13.40%E -2.31%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 12:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.70%EV -8.88%E -7.22%K -38.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -13.40%E -2.31%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 12:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.02%EV -10.36%E -8.56%K -49.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -13.40%E -2.31%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 12:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.02%EV -10.36%E -8.56%K -49.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -13.40%E -2.31%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 12:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.02%EV -10.36%E -8.56%K -49.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -13.40%E -2.31%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 12:25
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.56%EV -11.10%E -9.25%K -55.50%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-23 12:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.56%EV -11.10%E -9.25%K -55.50%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -6.63%E -0.780%K -0.884%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-23 12:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.94%EV -5.17%E -4.04%K -18.47%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.27%EV -7.73%E -0.920%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -4.44%E -0.694%K -0.822%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 12:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.51%EV -11.10%E -9.25%K -55.50%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.84%EV -9.37%E -1.14%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.66%EV -8.92%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 12:23
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.15%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -2.95%E -0.454%K -0.536%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 12:20
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 12:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 12:20
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 12:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -4.43%E -3.44%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 12:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.62%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.97%EV -8.92%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 12:13
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -9.62%E -7.88%K -43.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -12.12%E -1.52%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -17.88%E -3.25%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-23 12:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.20%EV -8.88%E -7.22%K -38.59%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.54%EV -14.32%E -1.84%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.26%EV -11.91%E -2.02%K -2.43%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-23 12:15
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.12%EV -17.61%E -2.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 12:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.86%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.58%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -20.36%E -2.81%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -6.68%E -1.07%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 12:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.26%EV -8.14%E -6.56%K -33.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -23.11%E -3.30%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.93%EV -10.41%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-23 12:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.22%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.88%0.9%2026-08-23 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.05%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.42%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.54%1.2%2026-08-23 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.05%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.42%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.54%1.2%2026-08-23 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.05%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.42%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.54%1.2%2026-08-23 12:25
Matchbook◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.04%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.99%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.98%1.2%2026-08-23 12:25
Smarkets◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.19%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.36%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45%1.7%2026-08-23 12:25