Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.00
assuming max odds 4.30
assuming max odds 4.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 48.68%; Excelsior (Visit): 26.06%; Draw: 25.27%. For Excelsior (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.04%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.36%EV -15.30%E -8.79%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV +12.04%E +2.80%K +3.65%G +0.439% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV +1.06%E +0.266%K +0.355%G +0.004% | 5.7% | 2026-09-08 16:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.83%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.89%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%EV +1.06%E +0.266%K +0.355%G +0.004% | 3.0% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-08 16:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-08 16:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-08 16:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-08 16:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.89%EV -6.54%E -3.41%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.54%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-08 16:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.81%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.97%EV +1.36%E +0.349%K +0.470%G +0.006% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.23%EV -2.73%E -0.708%K -0.956%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -8.00%E -4.23%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.93%EV +0.316%E +0.082%K +0.111%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.30%EV -0.199%E -0.050%K -0.068%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -8.00%E -4.23%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.93%EV +0.316%E +0.082%K +0.111%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.30%EV -0.199%E -0.050%K -0.068%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.43%EV -8.49%E -4.51%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -0.987%E -0.260%K -0.352%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -2.73%E -0.708%K -0.956%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -0.987%E -0.260%K -0.352%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-08 16:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -2.29%E -0.610%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-08 16:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.39%EV -2.64%E -1.32%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 26.01%EV -3.07%E -0.826%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.60%EV -4.49%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-08 16:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -7.51%E -3.95%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.59%E -0.971%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.49%E -4.51%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -3.59%E -0.971%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -3.59%E -0.971%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -3.59%E -0.971%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -3.59%E -0.971%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -4.89%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.07%EV -11.41%E -6.27%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -4.89%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-08 16:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.21%EV -4.59%E -2.34%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-08 16:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-08 16:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -6.05%E -3.14%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-08 16:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.10%E -4.15%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 16:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.10%E -4.15%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 16:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.90%EV -11.41%E -6.27%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.22%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.90%EV -11.41%E -6.27%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.22%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.61%EV -3.62%E -1.83%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-08 16:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.61%EV -3.62%E -1.83%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-08 16:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.82%EV -12.38%E -6.88%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.91%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.82%EV -12.38%E -6.88%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.91%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.82%EV -12.38%E -6.88%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.91%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -1.46%E -0.375%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-08 16:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -1.46%E -0.375%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-08 16:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -3.62%E -1.83%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-08 16:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -16.62%E -5.04%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-08 16:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.80%EV -7.51%E -3.95%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.10%EV -9.32%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.10%EV -12.07%E -3.47%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-08 16:18 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.01%EV -11.41%E -6.27%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.86%EV -10.11%E -2.93%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-08 16:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -11.41%E -3.36%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -1.46%E -0.375%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -11.41%E -3.36%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -11.41%E -3.36%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-08 16:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.41%E -3.36%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.09%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -12.71%E -3.79%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.06%EV -7.51%E -3.95%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.26%EV -12.71%E -3.79%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 16:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -14.01%E -4.25%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -14.01%E -4.25%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-08 16:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.07%EV -9.46%E -5.09%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -14.01%E -4.25%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-08 16:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.48% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39% | 1.1% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.38% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.31% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32% | 1.3% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.62% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.18% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.19% | 1.8% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.62% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.18% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.19% | 1.8% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.82% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.15% | 2.0% | 2026-09-08 16:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.02% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51% | 2.0% | 2026-09-08 16:15 |