Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior

Inicio: 2026-09-08 16:45 UTC

Final: NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Excelsior

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Predicción 48.68%2.05momio equitativo
EV -2.64%
Ventaja -1.32%
Kelly -2.64%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.07%48.95%48.50%54.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.741.901.912.0057.47%52.69%52.36%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Excelsior (Visitante)

Predicción 26.06%3.84momio equitativo
EV +12.04%
Ventaja +2.80%
Kelly +3.65%
Crecimiento +0.439%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.00%25.88%26.17%27.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.613.604.3030.30%27.68%27.78%23.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.27%3.96momio equitativo
EV +1.06%
Ventaja +0.266%
Kelly +0.355%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.65%25.17%25.32%27.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.713.754.0030.30%26.93%26.67%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 48.68%; Excelsior (Visitante): 26.06%; Empate: 25.27%. Para Excelsior (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.84. 10 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +12.04%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.36%EV -15.30%E -8.79%K -20.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV +12.04%E +2.80%K +3.65%G +0.439%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV +1.06%E +0.266%K +0.355%G +0.004%5.7%2026-09-08 16:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.83%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.89%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%EV +1.06%E +0.266%K +0.355%G +0.004%3.0%2026-09-08 16:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-08 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-08 16:15
BetAnything🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-08 16:15
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-08 16:15
Coolbet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.89%EV -6.54%E -3.41%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +1.62%E +0.415%K +0.558%G +0.009%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.54%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-08 16:30
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.81%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.97%EV +1.36%E +0.349%K +0.470%G +0.006%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.23%EV -2.73%E -0.708%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-08 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -8.00%E -4.23%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.93%EV +0.316%E +0.082%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.30%EV -0.199%E -0.050%K -0.068%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-08 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -8.00%E -4.23%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.93%EV +0.316%E +0.082%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.30%EV -0.199%E -0.050%K -0.068%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-08 16:35
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.43%EV -8.49%E -4.51%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -0.987%E -0.260%K -0.352%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -2.73%E -0.708%K -0.956%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 16:35
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -0.987%E -0.260%K -0.352%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 16:19
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -2.29%E -0.610%K -0.832%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 16:20
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.39%EV -2.64%E -1.32%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.01%EV -3.07%E -0.826%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.60%EV -4.49%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-08 16:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -7.51%E -3.95%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.59%E -0.971%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 16:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -8.49%E -4.51%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -3.59%E -0.971%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 16:40
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -3.59%E -0.971%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 16:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -3.59%E -0.971%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 16:35
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -3.59%E -0.971%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 16:35
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -4.89%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-08 16:35
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.07%EV -11.41%E -6.27%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -4.89%E -1.34%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 16:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.21%EV -4.59%E -2.34%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-08 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 16:20
Bovada🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -6.05%E -3.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 16:40
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-08 16:05
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.10%E -4.15%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 16:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -14.10%E -4.15%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 16:30
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.90%EV -11.41%E -6.27%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.22%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 16:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.90%EV -11.41%E -6.27%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.22%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 16:35
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.61%EV -3.62%E -1.83%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 16:25
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.61%EV -3.62%E -1.83%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.82%EV -12.38%E -6.88%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.91%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.82%EV -12.38%E -6.88%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.91%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.82%EV -12.38%E -6.88%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -7.50%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.91%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 16:35
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -1.46%E -0.375%K -0.504%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 16:29
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -1.46%E -0.375%K -0.504%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 16:29
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -3.62%E -1.83%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-08 16:40
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 16:40
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 16:35
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 16:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 16:40
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 16:40
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -8.80%E -2.52%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -16.62%E -5.04%K -7.23%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-08 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.80%EV -7.51%E -3.95%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.10%EV -9.32%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.10%EV -12.07%E -3.47%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 16:18
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.01%EV -11.41%E -6.27%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.86%EV -10.11%E -2.93%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 16:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -11.41%E -3.36%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -1.46%E -0.375%K -0.504%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 16:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -11.41%E -3.36%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 16:40
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -5.08%E -2.60%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -11.41%E -3.36%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-08 16:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.95%E -5.38%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.41%E -3.36%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 16:40
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.09%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -12.71%E -3.79%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 16:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.06%EV -7.51%E -3.95%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.26%EV -12.71%E -3.79%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 16:20
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -7.03%E -3.68%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -14.01%E -4.25%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-08 16:40
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -10.92%E -5.97%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -14.01%E -4.25%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 16:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.07%EV -9.46%E -5.09%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -14.01%E -4.25%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-08 16:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.48%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%1.1%2026-09-08 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.38%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32%1.3%2026-09-08 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.62%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.18%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.19%1.8%2026-09-08 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.62%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.18%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.19%1.8%2026-09-08 16:40
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.15%2.0%2026-09-08 16:40
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.02%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%2.0%2026-09-08 16:15