Language:English
Heracles Almelo v PSV Eindhoven
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Heracles Almelo (Local)
Prediction 11.32%8.84fair odd
EV +13.18%
Edge +1.32%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.193%
assuming max odds 10.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.49%11.31%11.36%13.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.398.5010.0014.81%11.92%11.76%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
PSV Eindhoven (Visit)
Prediction 73.34%1.36fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -12.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.13%73.36%73.37%75.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.261.271.3186.96%79.13%78.74%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.34%6.52fair odd
EV +3.56%
Edge +0.528%
Kelly +0.619%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 6.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.23%15.33%15.28%16.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.076.006.7518.52%16.46%16.67%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heracles Almelo (Local): 11.32%; PSV Eindhoven (Visit): 73.34%; Draw: 15.34%. For Heracles Almelo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.84. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.18%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV +13.18%E +1.32%K +1.46%G +0.193% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -0.274%E -0.042%K -0.050%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 17:38 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.15%EV +7.52%E +0.791%K +0.884%G +0.066% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.77%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.07%EV -1.81%E -0.283%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 17:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.15%EV +7.52%E +0.791%K +0.884%G +0.066% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.77%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.07%EV -1.81%E -0.283%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 17:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.09%EV +7.52%E +0.791%K +0.884%G +0.066% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.92%EV -6.12%E -4.79%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.98%EV -1.81%E -0.283%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 17:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.00%EV +7.52%E +0.791%K +0.884%G +0.066% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.80%EV -6.86%E -5.40%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 17:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.22%EV +5.25%E +0.565%K +0.633%G +0.033% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.67%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.11%EV -9.48%E -1.61%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.22%EV +5.25%E +0.565%K +0.633%G +0.033% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.67%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.11%EV -9.48%E -1.61%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 13:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.39%EV -6.86%E -5.40%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 17:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.39%EV -6.86%E -5.40%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.12%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 17:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -7.59%E -6.03%K -29.20%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 17:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -7.59%E -6.03%K -29.20%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 17:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -7.59%E -6.03%K -29.20%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 17:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.86%E -5.40%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 17:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -7.59%E -6.03%K -29.20%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-28 17:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.42%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.25%EV -6.41%E -1.05%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-28 17:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.42%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.25%EV -6.41%E -1.05%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-28 17:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.42%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.25%EV -6.41%E -1.05%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-28 17:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -9.06%E -7.31%K -37.74%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 17:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -10.53%E -8.63%K -47.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-28 17:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV +1.86%E +0.207%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -10.53%E -8.63%K -47.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-02-28 17:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.69I 11.51%NM 11.14%EV -1.65%E -0.190%K -0.214%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.44%EV -4.66%E -3.58%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 6.71I 14.90%NM 14.42%EV +2.95%E +0.439%K +0.516%G +0.015% | 3.3% | 2026-02-28 17:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.84%EV -2.67%E -0.310%K -0.351%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.00%EV -7.59%E -6.03%K -29.20%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.16%EV -5.64%E -0.918%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-28 17:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 8.56I 11.68%NM 11.20%EV -3.12%E -0.365%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.30%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 6.61I 15.13%NM 14.50%EV +1.41%E +0.214%K +0.252%G +0.004% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 17:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.30%EV -3.80%E -0.447%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.47%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV +3.56%E +0.528%K +0.619%G +0.022% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 17:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.30%EV -3.80%E -0.447%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.47%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV +3.56%E +0.528%K +0.619%G +0.022% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 17:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -3.80%E -0.447%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.17%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 17:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -3.80%E -0.447%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.17%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 17:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -3.80%E -0.447%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.66%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -0.274%E -0.042%K -0.050%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-28 17:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -3.80%E -0.447%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 13:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.34%EV -6.63%E -0.804%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.68%EV -6.86%E -5.40%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 17:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.34%EV -6.63%E -0.804%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.68%EV -6.86%E -5.40%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 17:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.34%EV -6.63%E -0.804%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.68%EV -6.86%E -5.40%K -25.40%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 17:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.46%EV -7.19%E -0.877%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.39%EV -6.12%E -4.79%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.15%EV -4.88%E -0.787%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 17:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -9.46%E -1.18%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.27%EV -6.12%E -4.79%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.01%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-28 16:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -9.46%E -1.18%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.66%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 15:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -9.46%E -1.18%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -11.78%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 17:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -9.46%E -1.18%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.09%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.49%EV -9.48%E -1.61%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-28 17:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -9.46%E -1.18%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.44%EV -9.06%E -7.31%K -37.74%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-02-28 17:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -9.46%E -1.18%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -10.53%E -8.63%K -47.84%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -15.62%E -2.84%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-28 16:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.26%EV -12.29%E -1.59%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -3.92%E -3.00%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 17:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.49%EV -12.29%E -1.59%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.01%EV -10.53%E -8.63%K -47.84%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.49%EV -11.78%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-02-28 17:38 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 7.70I 12.99%NM 11.58%EV -12.85%E -1.67%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.06%EV -10.53%E -8.63%K -47.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.37%EV -11.01%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-28 17:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -15.12%E -2.02%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -4.66%E -3.58%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 17:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -15.12%E -2.02%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -4.66%E -3.58%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -7.95%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 17:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -15.12%E -2.02%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.71%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.95%EV -11.01%E -1.90%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-28 17:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -15.12%E -2.02%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.62%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -11.78%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-28 17:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -15.12%E -2.02%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.62%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -11.78%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-28 17:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -15.12%E -2.02%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.62%EV -5.39%E -4.18%K -18.59%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -11.78%E -2.05%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-28 17:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -15.12%E -2.02%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -15.62%E -2.84%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-02-28 16:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.60%EV -15.12%E -2.02%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 73.13%EV -12.73%E -10.69%K -66.98%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.27%EV -12.55%E -2.20%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-02-28 17:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.22%EV -15.12%E -2.02%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 73.19%EV -15.66%E -13.62%K -104.39%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 15.59%EV -17.15%E -3.18%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 18.8% | 2026-02-28 17:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -17.95%E -2.48%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.86%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -4.11%E -0.658%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-02-28 17:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -20.78%E -2.97%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.13%EV -8.33%E -6.66%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.17%EV -15.62%E -2.84%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-02-28 17:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.03%EV -23.61%E -3.50%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.53%EV -9.79%E -7.96%K -42.57%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.44%EV -12.55%E -2.20%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-02-28 17:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.55% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.55% | 1.0% | 2026-02-28 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.55% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.55% | 1.0% | 2026-02-28 17:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.27% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.24% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.49% | 1.5% | 2026-02-28 17:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.85% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.22% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.93% | 1.5% | 2026-02-28 17:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.85% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.22% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.93% | 1.5% | 2026-02-28 17:40 |