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Heracles Almelo v Ajax
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Heracles Almelo (Local)
Prediction 18.10%5.53fair odd
EV +10.40%
Edge +1.71%
Kelly +2.04%
Growth +0.212%
assuming max odds 6.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.97%18.11%18.12%19.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.315.256.1021.74%18.84%19.05%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ajax (Visit)
Prediction 60.93%1.64fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -6.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.58
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.95%60.87%60.87%62.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.511.501.5869.93%66.13%66.67%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.98%4.77fair odd
EV -0.782%
Edge -0.165%
Kelly -0.210%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.24%21.02%21.01%21.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.414.404.7325.00%22.66%22.73%21.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heracles Almelo (Local): 18.10%; Ajax (Visit): 60.93%; Draw: 20.98%. For Heracles Almelo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.53. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.40%.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.97%EV +10.40%E +1.71%K +2.04%G +0.212% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.85%EV -5.57%E -3.59%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.18%EV -3.51%E -0.763%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.19%EV +8.59%E +1.43%K +1.72%G +0.148% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.68%EV -5.57%E -3.59%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%EV -3.51%E -0.763%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV +4.97%E +0.857%K +1.04%G +0.052% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.52%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -7.70%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV +4.07%E +0.707%K +0.856%G +0.035% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.59%EV -9.22%E -6.19%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -7.70%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV +4.07%E +0.707%K +0.856%G +0.035% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.59%EV -9.22%E -6.19%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -7.70%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV +4.07%E +0.707%K +0.856%G +0.035% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.75%EV -10.44%E -7.10%K -22.21%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -8.75%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.71I 17.51%NM 16.98%EV +3.34%E +0.586%K +0.710%G +0.024% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.16%EV -4.96%E -3.18%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.85%EV -2.46%E -0.529%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-11 18:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.72%EV +1.35%E +0.242%K +0.294%G +0.004% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.00%EV -8.00%E -5.30%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -7.70%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV +1.35%E +0.242%K +0.294%G +0.004% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.49%EV -11.05%E -7.57%K -24.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.22%EV -9.80%E -2.28%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV +1.35%E +0.242%K +0.294%G +0.004% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.49%EV -11.05%E -7.57%K -24.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.22%EV -9.80%E -2.28%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -0.457%E -0.083%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -3.51%E -0.763%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-11 18:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -0.457%E -0.083%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -5.61%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-11 18:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -0.457%E -0.083%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -9.17%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV -2.27%E -0.420%K -0.515%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.15%EV -5.57%E -3.59%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.30%EV -6.66%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV -2.27%E -0.420%K -0.515%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.15%EV -5.57%E -3.59%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.30%EV -6.66%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -2.27%E -0.420%K -0.515%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.70%EV -6.18%E -4.01%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -10.85%E -2.55%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-11 18:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -4.08%E -0.769%K -0.948%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.41%EV -7.39%E -4.86%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.98%EV -6.66%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-11 18:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -4.98%E -0.949%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.83%EV -4.96%E -3.18%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -5.61%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -4.98%E -0.949%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.42%EV -6.18%E -4.01%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.56%EV -3.51%E -0.763%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -4.98%E -0.949%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.01%EV -6.78%E -4.43%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -7.70%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -4.98%E -0.949%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.01%EV -7.39%E -4.86%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -8.75%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.23%EV -6.79%E -1.32%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -6.78%E -4.43%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -3.51%E -0.763%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 18:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.12I 19.53%NM 18.79%EV -7.33%E -1.43%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.88%EV -3.74%E -2.37%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 4.73I 21.14%NM 20.34%EV -0.782%E -0.165%K -0.210%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-11 18:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -9.51%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.75%EV -6.78%E -4.43%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -5.61%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-11 18:58 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -9.51%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -9.17%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 18:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -9.51%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04%EV -9.17%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 18:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -9.51%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.54%EV -9.83%E -6.64%K -20.48%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -5.61%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 18:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -9.51%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -11.90%E -2.83%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -9.51%E -1.90%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -11.90%E -2.83%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -11.32%E -2.31%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.09%EV -6.18%E -4.01%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -7.70%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -11.32%E -2.31%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.09%EV -6.18%E -4.01%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -7.70%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.39%EV -12.22%E -2.52%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.10%EV -11.05%E -7.57%K -24.02%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.51%EV -8.75%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-11 18:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.27%EV -13.13%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.33%EV -12.88%E -9.00%K -29.95%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.40%EV -9.80%E -2.28%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-11 18:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.00%EV -14.03%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.84%EV -9.17%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.09%EV -16.75%E -3.64%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 58.95%EV -9.22%E -6.19%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.96%EV -16.09%E -4.02%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.73% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.19% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.09% | 3.1% | 2026-04-11 19:00 |