Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen v SC Telstar

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:30 UTC

Final: Heerenveen 0–0 SC Telstar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen (Local)

Prediction 58.73%1.70fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -3.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.97%58.72%58.77%60.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.581.571.6666.23%63.36%63.69%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Telstar (Visit)

Prediction 19.94%5.01fair odd
EV +5.70%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.30%19.98%19.88%22.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.704.705.3024.39%21.28%21.28%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.32%4.69fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.414%
Kelly -0.529%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.22%21.30%21.35%22.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.344.334.6025.64%23.06%23.09%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heerenveen (Local): 58.73%; SC Telstar (Visit): 19.94%; Draw: 21.32%. For SC Telstar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.01. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.62%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.30%EV +5.70%E +1.08%K +1.33%G +0.076%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.08%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-13 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.86%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.71%E +0.713%K +0.883%G +0.033%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.77%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-13 12:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.86%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.71%E +0.713%K +0.883%G +0.033%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.77%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-13 12:20
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.51%EV +1.71%E +0.336%K +0.418%G +0.007%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 12:20
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.83%EV -6.62%E -4.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%EV -0.281%E -0.056%K -0.070%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 12:00
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.87%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 12:25
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.87%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 12:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.42%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -7.66%E -1.77%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 12:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.63%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 12:20
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.63%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 12:20
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.63%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 12:20
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.64%EV -8.97%E -5.78%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 12:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.65%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.51%EV -2.87%E -0.590%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 12:16
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.65%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.51%EV -2.87%E -0.590%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 12:15
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.65%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.51%EV -2.87%E -0.590%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 12:15
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.44%EV -7.20%E -4.56%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.04%EV -3.27%E -0.675%K -0.850%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -12.57%E -3.07%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 12:25
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.04%EV -2.51%E -1.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.91%EV -3.47%E -0.717%K -0.904%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.05%EV -6.81%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-13 12:16
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.61%EV -3.68%E -2.24%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.03%EV -4.27%E -0.890%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-13 12:25
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.48%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -4.27%E -0.890%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 12:26
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.48%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -4.27%E -0.890%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 12:26
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.64%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -4.27%E -0.890%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 12:24
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -4.27%E -0.890%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 12:20
BetUS🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.09%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.27%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 12:00
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.06%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -5.27%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -7.66%E -1.77%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 12:25
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.14%EV -9.55%E -6.20%K -17.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -5.27%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 12:17
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.38%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -6.17%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 12:15
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.39%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 12:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.42%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 12:25
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.18%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 12:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.18%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 12:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.18%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 12:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.18%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 12:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.19%EV -11.32%E -7.49%K -22.19%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.57%E -3.07%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 12:20
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 12:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 12:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.56%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 12:20
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.56%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 12:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.13%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.17%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 12:20
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 12:10
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 12:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 12:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 12:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.02%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -10.25%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -6.17%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 12:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.43%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -10.25%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -9.37%E -2.20%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 12:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.74%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -10.25%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -12.57%E -3.07%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 12:20
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -10.25%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -14.70%E -3.68%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 12:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.83%EV -10.73%E -7.06%K -20.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -10.25%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 12:26
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -12.25%E -2.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -9.37%E -2.20%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 12:16
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.16%EV -11.32%E -7.49%K -22.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.30%EV -12.25%E -2.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 12:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.72%EV -10.73%E -7.06%K -20.63%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.52%EV -13.24%E -3.04%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 12:15
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.50%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -13.64%E -3.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -7.66%E -1.77%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 12:16
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.22%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.57%EV -13.64%E -3.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 12:25
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.97%EV -8.97%E -5.78%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -13.64%E -3.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -16.83%E -4.32%K -5.80%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-13 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.59%EV -7.20%E -4.56%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -18.23%E -4.45%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 12:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.64%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -18.23%E -4.45%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -6.17%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 12:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 59.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.9%2026-09-13 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 59.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.9%2026-09-13 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.67I 59.88%NM 59.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.9%2026-09-13 12:26
Matchbook1.67I 59.88%NM 59.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.9%2026-09-13 12:26
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%NM 59.52%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.48%1.2%2026-09-13 12:25
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.79%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.64%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.58%1.9%2026-09-13 12:10