Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Heerenveen v SC Telstar

Inicio: 2026-09-13 12:30 UTC

Final: Heerenveen 0–0 SC Telstar

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Heerenveen (Local)

Predicción 58.73%1.70momio equitativo
EV -2.51%
Ventaja -1.51%
Kelly -3.80%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.97%58.72%58.77%60.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.511.581.571.6666.23%63.36%63.69%60.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

SC Telstar (Visitante)

Predicción 19.94%5.01momio equitativo
EV +5.70%
Ventaja +1.08%
Kelly +1.33%
Crecimiento +0.076%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.30%19.98%19.88%22.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.104.704.705.3024.39%21.28%21.28%18.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.32%4.69momio equitativo
EV -1.91%
Ventaja -0.414%
Kelly -0.529%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.22%21.30%21.35%22.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.344.334.6025.64%23.06%23.09%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Heerenveen (Local): 58.73%; SC Telstar (Visitante): 19.94%; Empate: 21.32%. Para SC Telstar (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.01. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.70%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.62%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.30%EV +5.70%E +1.08%K +1.33%G +0.076%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.08%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-13 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.86%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.71%E +0.713%K +0.883%G +0.033%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.77%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-13 12:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.86%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.71%E +0.713%K +0.883%G +0.033%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.77%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-13 12:20
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.51%EV +1.71%E +0.336%K +0.418%G +0.007%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 12:20
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.83%EV -6.62%E -4.16%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%EV -0.281%E -0.056%K -0.070%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 12:00
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.87%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 12:25
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.87%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 12:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.42%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -7.66%E -1.77%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 12:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.63%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 12:20
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.63%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 12:20
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.63%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 12:20
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.64%EV -8.97%E -5.78%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -2.28%E -0.464%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 12:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.65%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.51%EV -2.87%E -0.590%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 12:16
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.65%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.51%EV -2.87%E -0.590%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 12:15
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.65%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.51%EV -2.87%E -0.590%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 12:15
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.44%EV -7.20%E -4.56%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.04%EV -3.27%E -0.675%K -0.850%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -12.57%E -3.07%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 12:25
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.04%EV -2.51%E -1.51%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.91%EV -3.47%E -0.717%K -0.904%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.05%EV -6.81%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-13 12:16
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.61%EV -3.68%E -2.24%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.03%EV -4.27%E -0.890%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-13 12:25
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.48%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -4.27%E -0.890%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 12:26
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.48%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -4.27%E -0.890%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 12:26
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.64%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -4.27%E -0.890%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 12:24
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -4.27%E -0.890%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 12:20
BetUS🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.09%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.27%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 12:00
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.06%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -5.27%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -7.66%E -1.77%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 12:25
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.14%EV -9.55%E -6.20%K -17.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -5.27%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 12:17
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.38%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -6.17%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 12:15
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.39%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 12:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.42%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 12:25
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.18%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 12:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.18%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 12:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.18%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 12:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.18%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 12:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.19%EV -11.32%E -7.49%K -22.19%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -6.26%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.57%E -3.07%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 12:20
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 12:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -1.91%E -0.414%K -0.529%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 12:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.56%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 12:20
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.56%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 12:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.13%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -6.17%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 12:20
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 12:10
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 12:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 12:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.26%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 12:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.02%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -10.25%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -6.17%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 12:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.43%EV -4.86%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -10.25%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -9.37%E -2.20%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 12:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.74%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -10.25%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -12.57%E -3.07%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 12:20
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -10.25%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -14.70%E -3.68%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 12:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.83%EV -10.73%E -7.06%K -20.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -10.25%E -2.28%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 12:26
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -12.25%E -2.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -9.37%E -2.20%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 12:16
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.16%EV -11.32%E -7.49%K -22.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.30%EV -12.25%E -2.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -7.24%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 12:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.72%EV -10.73%E -7.06%K -20.63%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.52%EV -13.24%E -3.04%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -8.30%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 12:15
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.50%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -13.64%E -3.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -7.66%E -1.77%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 12:16
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.22%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.57%EV -13.64%E -3.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -10.44%E -2.48%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 12:25
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.97%EV -8.97%E -5.78%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -13.64%E -3.15%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -16.83%E -4.32%K -5.80%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-13 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.59%EV -7.20%E -4.56%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -18.23%E -4.45%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -4.04%E -0.897%K -1.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 12:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.64%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -18.23%E -4.45%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -6.17%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 12:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.9%2026-09-13 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.9%2026-09-13 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.9%2026-09-13 12:26
Matchbook◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.9%2026-09-13 12:26
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.52%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.48%1.2%2026-09-13 12:25
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.79%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.64%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.58%1.9%2026-09-13 12:10