Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Groningen v FC Zwolle

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 18:00 UTC

Final: Groningen 3–0 FC Zwolle

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Groningen (Local)

Prediction 62.58%1.60fair odd
EV +1.38%
Edge +0.855%
Kelly +2.23%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.93%62.56%62.63%65.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.481.481.6270.92%67.62%67.57%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Zwolle (Visit)

Prediction 17.21%5.81fair odd
EV +11.86%
Edge +1.82%
Kelly +2.16%
Growth +0.256%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.88%17.23%17.14%20.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.505.506.5021.74%18.18%18.18%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.21%4.95fair odd
EV +1.04%
Edge +0.208%
Kelly +0.260%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.92%20.21%20.23%21.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.584.605.0023.81%21.82%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Groningen (Local): 62.58%; FC Zwolle (Visit): 17.21%; Draw: 20.21%. For FC Zwolle (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.81. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.22%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.95%EV +11.86%E +1.82%K +2.16%G +0.256%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.83%EV -0.979%E -0.200%K -0.251%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-18 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.22%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.95%EV +11.86%E +1.82%K +2.16%G +0.256%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.83%EV -0.979%E -0.200%K -0.251%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-18 13:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.37%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.88%EV +11.86%E +1.82%K +2.16%G +0.256%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.74%EV -0.979%E -0.200%K -0.251%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-18 13:15
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.91%EV -9.25%E -6.38%K -20.57%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV +7.56%E +1.21%K +1.44%G +0.109%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -5.02%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 13:15
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.84%EV -4.25%E -2.78%K -8.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.02%EV +3.25%E +0.542%K +0.651%G +0.021%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.13%EV -8.05%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-18 15:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV +3.25%E +0.542%K +0.651%G +0.021%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 13:15
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV +3.25%E +0.542%K +0.651%G +0.021%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 13:15
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV +3.25%E +0.542%K +0.651%G +0.021%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 13:15
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -9.25%E -6.38%K -20.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV +3.25%E +0.542%K +0.651%G +0.021%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -9.06%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 13:15
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 14:40
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -4.01%E -0.844%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 14:45
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.27%EV -5.50%E -3.64%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 14:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 13:15
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 13:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 13:15
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 13:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 13:15
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.95%EV -3.00%E -1.93%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.68I 17.61%NM 16.90%EV -2.25%E -0.397%K -0.482%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.15%EV -8.25%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-18 15:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.17%EV -2.37%E -1.52%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.89%EV -2.77%E -0.490%K -0.596%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.94%EV -12.09%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-18 04:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.17%EV -2.37%E -1.52%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.89%EV -2.77%E -0.490%K -0.596%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.94%EV -12.09%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-18 04:40
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.17%EV -2.37%E -1.52%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.89%EV -2.77%E -0.490%K -0.596%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.94%EV -12.09%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-18 04:40
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.32%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%EV -3.63%E -0.648%K -0.789%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -5.02%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 15:08
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.45%EV -11.76%E -8.34%K -28.68%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.98%EV -3.63%E -0.648%K -0.789%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.57%EV -12.09%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 13:15
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV +1.04%E +0.208%K +0.260%G +0.003%4.8%2026-09-18 14:40
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.95%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -4.01%E -0.844%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 15:30
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.95%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -4.01%E -0.844%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 15:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.65%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -0.979%E -0.200%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 14:40
SportsBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.70%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 15:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.55%EV -8.00%E -5.44%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -3.00%E -0.625%K -0.790%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 14:20
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -9.06%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -8.00%E -5.44%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -4.01%E -0.844%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 14:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:09
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 14:25
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.14%EV -4.87%E -3.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.33%EV -6.21%E -1.14%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 14:20
BetAnything🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.83%EV -4.87%E -3.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -7.07%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.49%EV -0.979%E -0.200%K -0.251%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 14:33
Codere (IT)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.73%EV -5.50%E -3.64%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.54%EV -7.07%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -3.00%E -0.625%K -0.790%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 12:05
Betsson🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.97%EV -5.50%E -3.64%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.42%EV -7.59%E -1.41%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 20.61%EV -8.25%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 14:24
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.06%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV +1.04%E +0.208%K +0.260%G +0.003%5.7%2026-09-18 15:25
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.06%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV +1.04%E +0.208%K +0.260%G +0.003%5.7%2026-09-18 15:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.57%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -3.00%E -0.625%K -0.790%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 14:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.44%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -4.01%E -0.844%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 12:00
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.48%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.56%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 14:20
Bet Right🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.68%EV -8.63%E -5.91%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-18 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.01%EV -11.13%E -7.84%K -26.51%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.54%EV -12.24%E -2.40%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 12:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.00%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.38%EV -12.24%E -2.40%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.62%EV -13.10%E -3.05%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 15:20
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 15:09
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 15:20
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 15:20
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -12.50%E -2.89%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 14:24
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -15.13%E -3.60%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-18 15:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.01%EV -8.00%E -5.44%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -15.68%E -3.20%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -5.02%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-18 12:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.57%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.54%EV -15.68%E -3.20%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.89%EV -12.09%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-18 12:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.93%EV -8.63%E -5.91%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.84%EV -17.40%E -3.62%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.24%EV -5.02%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 12:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.93%EV +1.38%E +0.855%K +2.23%G +0.031%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -20.84%E -4.53%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -12.50%E -2.89%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.61%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-09-18 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.61%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-09-18 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.61%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-09-18 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.61%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-09-18 14:50
Matchbook◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.61%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-09-18 15:05
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.65%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%2.1%2026-09-18 10:40