Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Groningen v FC Zwolle

Inicio: 2026-09-18 18:00 UTC

Final: Groningen 3–0 FC Zwolle

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Groningen (Local)

Predicción 62.58%1.60momio equitativo
EV +1.38%
Ventaja +0.855%
Kelly +2.23%
Crecimiento +0.031%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.93%62.56%62.63%65.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.411.481.481.6270.92%67.62%67.57%61.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Zwolle (Visitante)

Predicción 17.21%5.81momio equitativo
EV +11.86%
Ventaja +1.82%
Kelly +2.16%
Crecimiento +0.256%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.88%17.23%17.14%20.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.605.505.506.5021.74%18.18%18.18%15.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.21%4.95momio equitativo
EV +1.04%
Ventaja +0.208%
Kelly +0.260%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.92%20.21%20.23%21.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.584.605.0023.81%21.82%21.74%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Groningen (Local): 62.58%; FC Zwolle (Visitante): 17.21%; Empate: 20.21%. Para FC Zwolle (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.81. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +11.86%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.22%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.95%EV +11.86%E +1.82%K +2.16%G +0.256%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.83%EV -0.979%E -0.200%K -0.251%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-18 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.22%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.95%EV +11.86%E +1.82%K +2.16%G +0.256%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.83%EV -0.979%E -0.200%K -0.251%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-18 13:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.37%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.88%EV +11.86%E +1.82%K +2.16%G +0.256%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.74%EV -0.979%E -0.200%K -0.251%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-18 13:15
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.91%EV -9.25%E -6.38%K -20.57%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV +7.56%E +1.21%K +1.44%G +0.109%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -5.02%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 13:15
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.84%EV -4.25%E -2.78%K -8.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.02%EV +3.25%E +0.542%K +0.651%G +0.021%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.13%EV -8.05%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-18 15:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV +3.25%E +0.542%K +0.651%G +0.021%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 13:15
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV +3.25%E +0.542%K +0.651%G +0.021%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 13:15
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV +3.25%E +0.542%K +0.651%G +0.021%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 13:15
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -9.25%E -6.38%K -20.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV +3.25%E +0.542%K +0.651%G +0.021%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -9.06%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 13:15
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 14:40
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -4.01%E -0.844%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 14:45
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.27%EV -5.50%E -3.64%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 14:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 13:15
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 13:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 13:15
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 13:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -1.05%E -0.182%K -0.221%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 13:15
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.95%EV -3.00%E -1.93%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.68I 17.61%NM 16.90%EV -2.25%E -0.397%K -0.482%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.15%EV -8.25%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-18 15:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.17%EV -2.37%E -1.52%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.89%EV -2.77%E -0.490%K -0.596%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.94%EV -12.09%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-18 04:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.17%EV -2.37%E -1.52%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.89%EV -2.77%E -0.490%K -0.596%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.94%EV -12.09%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-18 04:40
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.17%EV -2.37%E -1.52%K -4.23%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.89%EV -2.77%E -0.490%K -0.596%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.94%EV -12.09%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-18 04:40
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.32%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%EV -3.63%E -0.648%K -0.789%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -5.02%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 15:08
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.45%EV -11.76%E -8.34%K -28.68%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.98%EV -3.63%E -0.648%K -0.789%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.57%EV -12.09%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 13:15
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV +1.04%E +0.208%K +0.260%G +0.003%4.8%2026-09-18 14:40
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.95%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -4.01%E -0.844%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 15:30
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.95%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -4.01%E -0.844%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 15:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.65%EV -7.38%E -4.98%K -15.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -0.979%E -0.200%K -0.251%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 14:40
SportsBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.70%EV -6.75%E -4.53%K -13.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 15:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.55%EV -8.00%E -5.44%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -3.00%E -0.625%K -0.790%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 14:20
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -9.06%E -2.01%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -8.00%E -5.44%K -17.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -4.01%E -0.844%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 14:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:09
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -5.35%E -0.973%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 14:25
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.14%EV -4.87%E -3.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.33%EV -6.21%E -1.14%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 14:20
BetAnything🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.83%EV -4.87%E -3.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -7.07%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.49%EV -0.979%E -0.200%K -0.251%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 14:33
Codere (IT)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.73%EV -5.50%E -3.64%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.54%EV -7.07%E -1.31%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -3.00%E -0.625%K -0.790%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 12:05
Betsson🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.97%EV -5.50%E -3.64%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.42%EV -7.59%E -1.41%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 20.61%EV -8.25%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 14:24
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.06%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV +1.04%E +0.208%K +0.260%G +0.003%5.7%2026-09-18 15:25
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.06%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV +1.04%E +0.208%K +0.260%G +0.003%5.7%2026-09-18 15:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.57%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -3.00%E -0.625%K -0.790%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 14:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.44%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -4.01%E -0.844%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 12:00
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.48%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.56%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 14:20
Bet Right🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.68%EV -8.63%E -5.91%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -9.65%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-18 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.01%EV -11.13%E -7.84%K -26.51%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.54%EV -12.24%E -2.40%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -7.04%E -1.53%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 12:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.00%EV -10.51%E -7.35%K -24.43%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.38%EV -12.24%E -2.40%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.62%EV -13.10%E -3.05%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 15:20
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 15:09
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 15:20
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -11.08%E -2.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-18 15:20
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -12.50%E -2.89%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 14:24
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -9.88%E -6.86%K -22.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -13.96%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -15.13%E -3.60%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-18 15:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.01%EV -8.00%E -5.44%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -15.68%E -3.20%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -5.02%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-18 12:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.57%EV -6.13%E -4.08%K -12.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.54%EV -15.68%E -3.20%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.89%EV -12.09%E -2.78%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-18 12:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.93%EV -8.63%E -5.91%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.84%EV -17.40%E -3.62%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.24%EV -5.02%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 12:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.93%EV +1.38%E +0.855%K +2.23%G +0.031%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -20.84%E -4.53%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -12.50%E -2.89%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 18:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.61%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-09-18 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.61%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-09-18 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.61%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-09-18 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.61%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-09-18 14:50
Matchbook◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.61%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-09-18 15:05
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.65%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%2.1%2026-09-18 10:40