Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.01
assuming max odds 2.38
assuming max odds 3.80
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Groningen (Local): 33.09%; Ajax (Visit): 41.13%; Draw: 25.78%. For Groningen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.01, with an expected value of -0.386%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.01I 33.22%NM 32.21%EV -0.386%E -0.128%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.15%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.65%EV -2.56%E -0.677%K -0.921%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -4.17%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -4.17%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -4.17%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 15:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.40%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.70%EV -2.12%E -0.889%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.90%EV -3.59%E -0.960%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-07 15:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.31%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.28%EV -3.76%E -1.61%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -2.05%E -0.538%K -0.730%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-07 15:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.31%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.28%EV -3.76%E -1.61%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -2.05%E -0.538%K -0.730%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-07 15:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.41%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 15:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.62%EV -6.23%E -2.73%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 14:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.48%EV -6.23%E -2.73%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 15:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-07 14:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-07 14:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-07 14:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 11:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 11:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.07%EV -5.02%E -1.75%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.27%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.35%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 15:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.35%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.23%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 15:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-07 15:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -8.28%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -8.28%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-07 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.70%EV -6.67%E -2.37%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.98%EV -14.45%E -6.95%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 25.32%EV -9.00%E -2.55%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-07 15:11 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-07 15:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 15:24 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 15:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -6.23%E -2.73%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.77%EV -6.69%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-07 14:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.79%EV -10.34%E -4.74%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-07 14:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.79%EV -10.34%E -4.74%K -8.76%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-07 14:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 15:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 15:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-07 15:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -10.64%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.64%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -14.93%E -4.53%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.47%EV -10.64%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.75%EV -13.63%E -6.49%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-03-07 15:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.59%EV -11.64%E -4.36%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.44%EV -13.63%E -6.49%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -13.64%E -4.07%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-03-07 15:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 31.96%EV -12.96%E -4.93%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.02%EV -13.63%E -6.49%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.02%EV -22.67%E -7.56%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 19.0% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -13.29%E -5.07%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.75%EV -13.95%E -5.37%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.81%EV -11.58%E -5.38%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -11.07%E -3.21%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-07 15:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 32.55%EV -15.61%E -6.12%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 41.51%EV -17.74%E -8.87%K -17.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 25.94%EV -17.51%E -5.47%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 20.5% | 2026-03-07 15:04 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97% | 1.3% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97% | 1.3% | 2026-03-07 15:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97% | 1.3% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97% | 1.3% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.82% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.10% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.08% | 2.2% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.69% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.34% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.97% | 4.0% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 44.66% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 55.34% | -21.4% | 2026-03-07 15:25 |