La escuela de los momios

Groningen v Ajax

Inicio: 2026-03-07 15:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Groningen (Local)

Predicción 33.09%3.02momio equitativo
EV -0.386%
Ventaja -0.128%
Kelly -0.192%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.01

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.68%33.03%33.13%34.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.552.822.853.0139.22%35.49%35.09%33.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Ajax (Visitante)

Predicción 41.13%2.43momio equitativo
EV -2.12%
Ventaja -0.889%
Kelly -1.53%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.02%41.19%41.06%42.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.252.252.3850.00%44.44%44.44%42.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.78%3.88momio equitativo
EV -2.05%
Ventaja -0.538%
Kelly -0.730%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.19%25.78%25.81%28.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.583.603.8033.33%27.94%27.78%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

1 corredor ofrece un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (2 vías, frente al formato de 3 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.01I 33.22%NM 32.21%EV -0.386%E -0.128%K -0.192%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.15%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.65%EV -2.56%E -0.677%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 15:25
Unibet (NL)2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -4.17%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 14:49
ATG (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -4.17%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 14:50
Svenska Spel2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -4.17%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 14:49
Coolbet2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 15:09
Pinnacle2.90I 34.48%NM 33.40%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.70%EV -2.12%E -0.889%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.90%EV -3.59%E -0.960%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 15:24
LowVig.ag2.90I 34.48%NM 33.31%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.28%EV -3.76%E -1.61%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -2.05%E -0.538%K -0.730%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 15:19
BetOnline.ag2.90I 34.48%NM 33.31%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.28%EV -3.76%E -1.61%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -2.05%E -0.538%K -0.730%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 15:20
Bet Victor2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.41%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 15:05
Unibet (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.62%EV -6.23%E -2.73%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 14:39
Unibet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.48%EV -6.23%E -2.73%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 14:49
Tipico (DE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 15:20
Casumo2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 14:45
LeoVegas2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 14:44
betPARX2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 14:44
William Hill2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 11:24
Mr Green (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 11:24
Coral2.87I 34.84%NM 33.07%EV -5.02%E -1.75%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.27%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Betsson2.85I 35.09%NM 33.35%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 15:24
NordicBet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.35%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 15:04
BetMGM2.85I 35.09%NM 33.23%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 15:24
Codere (IT)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 15:25
DraftKings2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 15:15
Unibet (UK)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 15:24
FanDuel2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 15:04
BetRivers2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:49
TABtouch2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -8.28%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 14:49
Grosvenor2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -8.28%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 14:50
Betclic (FR)2.82I 35.46%NM 31.70%EV -6.67%E -2.37%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.98%EV -14.45%E -6.95%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.32%EV -9.00%E -2.55%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 15:11
BetUS2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 15:24
BetAnything2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 15:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 15:24
Everygame2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 15:14
Marathon Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -6.23%E -2.73%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.77%EV -6.69%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 15:25
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 15:04
LeoVegas (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 14:49
888sport2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 15:25
888sport (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 15:25
Fliff2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-07 15:04
Virgin Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.79%EV -10.34%E -4.74%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-07 14:45
LiveScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.79%EV -10.34%E -4.74%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-07 14:44
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 15:24
Bet Right2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 15:19
PointsBet (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 15:25
PlayUp2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 15:24
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 15:04
Paddy Power2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-07 15:04
Winamax (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -10.64%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Sky Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.64%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -14.93%E -4.53%K -6.49%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-07 15:04
Parions Sport (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 32.47%EV -10.64%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.75%EV -13.63%E -6.49%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-07 15:24
NetBet (FR)2.67I 37.45%NM 32.59%EV -11.64%E -4.36%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.44%EV -13.63%E -6.49%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -13.64%E -4.07%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-07 15:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 31.96%EV -12.96%E -4.93%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.02%EV -13.63%E -6.49%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.02%EV -22.67%E -7.56%K -11.33%G +0.000%19.0%2026-03-07 15:04
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -13.29%E -5.07%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-07 15:04
Winamax (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.75%EV -13.95%E -5.37%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.81%EV -11.58%E -5.38%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -11.07%E -3.21%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-07 15:24
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 32.55%EV -15.61%E -6.12%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.51%EV -17.74%E -8.87%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 25.94%EV -17.51%E -5.47%K -7.96%G +0.000%20.5%2026-03-07 15:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-03-07 15:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Matchbook3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Smarkets2.98I 33.56%NM 32.82%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.10%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.08%2.2%2026-03-07 15:25
Kalshi2.94I 34.01%NM 32.69%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.97%4.0%2026-03-07 15:25

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (1)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Margen ▲Actualizado
Fanatics2.85I 35.09%NM 44.66%2.30I 43.48%NM 55.34%-21.4%2026-03-07 15:25