A Escola das Odds

Groningen v Ajax

Início: 2026-03-07 15:30 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

55 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Groningen (Local)

Previsão 33.09%3.02odd justa
EV -0.386%
Vantagem -0.128%
Kelly -0.192%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.01

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
31.68%33.03%33.13%34.03%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.552.822.853.0139.22%35.49%35.09%33.22%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Ajax (Visitante)

Previsão 41.13%2.43odd justa
EV -2.12%
Vantagem -0.889%
Kelly -1.53%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.38

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.02%41.19%41.06%42.98%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.002.252.252.3850.00%44.44%44.44%42.02%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 25.78%3.88odd justa
EV -2.05%
Vantagem -0.538%
Kelly -0.730%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.19%25.78%25.81%28.02%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.003.583.603.8033.33%27.94%27.78%26.32%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

1 casa de apostas oferece um número de opções diferente neste mercado (2 opções, em vez das 3 opções usadas na análise). Os resultados da análise devem ser interpretados com prudência devido a esta disparidade.

Odds das casas de apostas (55 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet3.01I 33.22%NM 32.21%EV -0.386%E -0.128%K -0.192%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.15%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.65%EV -2.56%E -0.677%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 15:25
Unibet (NL)2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -4.17%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 14:49
ATG (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -4.17%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 14:50
Svenska Spel2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -4.17%E -1.79%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 14:49
Coolbet2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -2.37%E -0.804%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -3.33%E -0.889%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 15:09
Pinnacle2.90I 34.48%NM 33.40%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.70%EV -2.12%E -0.889%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.90%EV -3.59%E -0.960%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 15:24
LowVig.ag2.90I 34.48%NM 33.31%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.28%EV -3.76%E -1.61%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -2.05%E -0.538%K -0.730%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 15:19
BetOnline.ag2.90I 34.48%NM 33.31%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.28%EV -3.76%E -1.61%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -2.05%E -0.538%K -0.730%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 15:20
Bet Victor2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.41%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 15:05
Unibet (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.62%EV -6.23%E -2.73%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 14:39
Unibet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.48%EV -6.23%E -2.73%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 14:49
Tipico (DE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 15:20
Casumo2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 14:45
LeoVegas2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 14:44
betPARX2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 14:44
William Hill2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 11:24
Mr Green (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 11:24
Coral2.87I 34.84%NM 33.07%EV -5.02%E -1.75%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.27%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Betsson2.85I 35.09%NM 33.35%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 15:24
NordicBet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.35%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 15:04
BetMGM2.85I 35.09%NM 33.23%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 15:24
Codere (IT)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 15:25
DraftKings2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -5.91%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 15:15
Unibet (UK)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 15:24
FanDuel2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 15:04
BetRivers2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-07 14:49
TABtouch2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -8.28%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 14:49
Grosvenor2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.63%EV -8.28%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 14:50
Betclic (FR)2.82I 35.46%NM 31.70%EV -6.67%E -2.37%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.98%EV -14.45%E -6.95%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.32%EV -9.00%E -2.55%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 15:11
BetUS2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 15:24
BetAnything2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%EV -4.58%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 15:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 15:24
Everygame2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 15:14
Marathon Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -6.23%E -2.73%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.77%EV -6.69%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 15:25
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 15:04
LeoVegas (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 14:49
888sport2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 15:25
888sport (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 15:25
Fliff2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-07 15:04
Virgin Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.79%EV -10.34%E -4.74%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-07 14:45
LiveScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.79%EV -10.34%E -4.74%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-07 14:44
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.62%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 15:24
Bet Right2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 15:19
PointsBet (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 15:25
PlayUp2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.49%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 15:24
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -5.41%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 15:04
Paddy Power2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-07 15:04
Winamax (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -10.64%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -7.20%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Sky Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.64%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -14.93%E -4.53%K -6.49%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-07 15:04
Parions Sport (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 32.47%EV -10.64%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.75%EV -13.63%E -6.49%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -12.36%E -3.63%K -5.15%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-07 15:24
NetBet (FR)2.67I 37.45%NM 32.59%EV -11.64%E -4.36%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.44%EV -13.63%E -6.49%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -13.64%E -4.07%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-07 15:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 31.96%EV -12.96%E -4.93%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.02%EV -13.63%E -6.49%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.02%EV -22.67%E -7.56%K -11.33%G +0.000%19.0%2026-03-07 15:04
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17%NM 34.02%EV -13.29%E -5.07%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -9.78%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-07 15:04
Winamax (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.75%EV -13.95%E -5.37%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.81%EV -11.58%E -5.38%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -11.07%E -3.21%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-07 15:24
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 32.55%EV -15.61%E -6.12%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.51%EV -17.74%E -8.87%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 25.94%EV -17.51%E -5.47%K -7.96%G +0.000%20.5%2026-03-07 15:04
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-03-07 15:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Matchbook3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-03-07 15:25
Smarkets2.98I 33.56%NM 32.82%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.10%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.08%2.2%2026-03-07 15:25
Kalshi2.94I 34.01%NM 32.69%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.34%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.97%4.0%2026-03-07 15:25

Outras casas de apostas — não incluídas na análise (1)

Estas casas oferecem um número de opções diferente neste mercado e são excluídas da análise. As respetivas odds são apresentadas apenas como referência — as regras de liquidação das apostas podem ser diferentes e implicar incerteza adicional.

Casa de apostasOpção 1Opção 2Margem ▲Atualização
Fanatics2.85I 35.09%NM 44.66%2.30I 43.48%NM 55.34%-21.4%2026-03-07 15:25