Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Volendam v SC Telstar

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:30 UTC

Final: FC Volendam 1–2 SC Telstar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Volendam (Local)

Prediction 36.24%2.76fair odd
EV +3.28%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.78%
Growth +0.058%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.12%36.23%36.25%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.592.602.8542.02%38.63%38.46%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Telstar (Visit)

Prediction 37.67%2.65fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%37.73%37.63%39.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.452.5843.48%40.95%40.82%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.09%3.83fair odd
EV -0.852%
Edge -0.224%
Kelly -0.304%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.38%26.04%26.12%28.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.533.603.8033.33%28.34%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Volendam (Local): 36.24%; SC Telstar (Visit): 37.67%; Draw: 26.09%. For FC Volendam (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.24%EV +3.28%E +1.15%K +1.78%G +0.058%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.03%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%EV -4.77%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-17 05:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.24%EV +3.28%E +1.15%K +1.78%G +0.058%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.03%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%EV -4.77%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-17 05:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.24%EV +3.28%E +1.15%K +1.78%G +0.058%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.03%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%EV -4.77%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-17 05:40
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.05%EV -0.702%E -0.256%K -0.404%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.57%EV -6.21%E -2.49%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.38%EV -5.03%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 08:16
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -2.15%E -0.797%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -9.60%E -4.00%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -9.98%E -2.89%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 05:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -2.15%E -0.797%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -9.60%E -4.00%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -9.98%E -2.89%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 05:40
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -2.15%E -0.797%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -9.60%E -4.00%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -9.98%E -2.89%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 05:40
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -2.15%E -0.797%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -10.35%E -4.35%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 05:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.08%EV -3.60%E -1.35%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.56%EV -8.84%E -3.65%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.36%EV -7.64%E -2.16%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 08:15
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -3.96%E -1.50%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -7.71%E -3.15%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:40
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -3.96%E -1.50%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -11.48%E -4.88%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -12.59%E -3.76%K -5.36%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 04:30
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.58%EV -4.69%E -1.78%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.28%EV -2.82%E -1.09%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.14%EV -3.98%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 08:16
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -4.69%E -1.78%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -11.48%E -4.88%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -12.59%E -3.76%K -5.36%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 04:30
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -4.69%E -1.78%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -11.48%E -4.88%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -12.59%E -3.76%K -5.36%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 04:30
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.32%EV -5.05%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -2.82%E -1.09%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.38%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 07:45
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.32%EV -5.05%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -2.82%E -1.09%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.38%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 07:45
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -5.05%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 07:35
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.95%E -1.55%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 08:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.28%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.88%EV -6.21%E -2.49%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.84%EV -4.77%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 07:50
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 07:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 07:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.71%E -3.15%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 07:50
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-17 07:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -9.60%E -4.00%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-17 07:49
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -9.60%E -4.00%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -9.60%E -4.00%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -9.60%E -4.00%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:45
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -9.60%E -4.00%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 07:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.53%EV -12.61%E -5.43%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 04:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.53%EV -12.61%E -5.43%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 04:30
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.53%EV -12.61%E -5.43%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 04:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.53%EV -12.61%E -5.43%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-17 04:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -5.78%E -2.22%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -13.36%E -5.81%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.30%EV -15.20%E -4.68%K -6.76%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-17 05:40
Bovada🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.54%EV -6.50%E -2.52%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.27%EV -4.70%E -1.86%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 08:12
BetUS🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.54%EV -6.50%E -2.52%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.27%EV -4.70%E -1.86%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 08:15
BetAnything🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.54%EV -6.50%E -2.52%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.27%EV -4.70%E -1.86%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 08:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.75%EV -7.23%E -2.82%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.75%EV -3.57%E -1.39%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -7.38%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.75%EV -7.23%E -2.82%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.75%EV -3.57%E -1.39%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -7.38%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:45
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -7.59%E -2.98%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -3.95%E -1.55%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -2.16%E -0.575%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 07:56
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.59%E -2.98%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 07:34
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.59%E -2.98%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 07:59
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -7.59%E -2.98%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.71%E -3.15%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.68%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 07:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -7.59%E -2.98%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.71%EV -11.48%E -4.88%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -7.38%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-17 07:50
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -9.40%E -3.76%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -0.852%E -0.224%K -0.304%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -9.40%E -3.76%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.83%E -2.33%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -3.46%E -0.936%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 07:56
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -9.40%E -3.76%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.71%E -3.15%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -3.46%E -0.936%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 07:55
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.40%E -3.76%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -7.71%E -3.15%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 07:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.40%E -3.76%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.20%EV -9.60%E -4.00%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -4.77%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-17 07:50
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.40%E -3.76%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.60%E -4.00%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 07:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.98%EV -10.49%E -4.25%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.50%EV -10.73%E -4.53%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -12.59%E -3.76%K -5.36%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-17 08:01
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -11.21%E -4.58%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.71%E -3.15%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -0.852%E -0.224%K -0.304%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-17 07:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.72%EV -11.21%E -4.58%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.29%EV -11.48%E -4.88%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.99%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 07:50
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -13.02%E -5.43%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -9.60%E -4.00%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -3.46%E -0.936%K -1.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 07:54
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%EV -13.02%E -5.43%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.70%EV -10.35%E -4.35%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -6.07%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-17 08:05
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.31%EV -13.75%E -5.78%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.31%EV -10.35%E -4.35%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -8.68%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-17 07:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.36%EV -13.75%E -5.78%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.59%EV -13.36%E -5.81%K -10.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.05%EV -21.73%E -7.24%K -10.86%G +0.000%18.8%2026-05-17 07:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.63%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73%1.1%2026-05-17 07:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.61%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.67%1.2%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.61%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.67%1.2%2026-05-17 08:20
Matchbook2.70I 37.04%NM 36.61%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.67%1.2%2026-05-17 08:20
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.50%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.90%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%1.5%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.50%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.90%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%1.5%2026-05-17 08:00