Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 16:45 UTC

Final: FC Utrecht 1–4 AZ Alkmaar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Utrecht (Local)

Prediction 32.46%3.08fair odd
EV +1.28%
Edge +0.411%
Kelly +0.605%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.11%32.52%32.48%35.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.852.853.1237.04%35.10%35.09%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AZ Alkmaar (Visit)

Prediction 41.15%2.43fair odd
EV +0.816%
Edge +0.333%
Kelly +0.563%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.64%41.09%41.12%43.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.282.4546.51%43.93%43.86%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.39%3.79fair odd
EV -0.252%
Edge -0.067%
Kelly -0.091%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.44%26.40%26.39%27.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.523.503.7830.77%28.42%28.57%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Utrecht (Local): 32.46%; AZ Alkmaar (Visit): 41.15%; Draw: 26.39%. For FC Utrecht (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 31.07%EV +1.28%E +0.411%K +0.605%G +0.008%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.28%EV -7.83%E -3.49%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.65%EV -0.252%E -0.067%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV +0.633%E +0.204%K +0.301%G +0.002%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -9.47%E -4.31%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 16:30
Pinnacle🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 32.05%EV -1.96%E -0.650%K -0.972%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.36%EV -3.71%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.59%EV -3.95%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 16:30
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -2.61%E -0.871%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -5.00%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 16:39
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -2.61%E -0.871%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.00%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 16:40
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.11%EV -4.24%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.83%EV -4.53%E -1.95%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 16:34
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.11%EV -4.24%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.83%EV -4.53%E -1.95%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 16:34
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -4.24%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 16:18
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -4.24%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -8.96%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 16:39
Bovada🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.03%EV -4.89%E -1.67%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.16%EV -6.18%E -2.71%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 16:23
BetOnline.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.10%EV -5.21%E -1.78%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.13%EV -3.30%E -1.40%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -1.04%E -0.278%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 16:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.10%EV -5.21%E -1.78%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.13%EV -3.30%E -1.40%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -1.04%E -0.278%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 16:20
BetUS🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.10%EV -5.21%E -1.78%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.13%EV -3.30%E -1.40%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -1.04%E -0.278%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 16:20
BetAnything🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.10%EV -5.21%E -1.78%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.13%EV -3.30%E -1.40%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%EV -1.04%E -0.278%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.16%EV -5.21%E -1.78%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.32%EV -11.53%E -5.36%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.53%EV -9.49%E -2.77%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 16:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42%EV -5.86%E -2.02%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.38%EV -1.24%E -0.517%K -0.887%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -2.36%E -0.639%K -0.875%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-15 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42%EV -5.86%E -2.02%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.38%EV -1.24%E -0.517%K -0.887%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -2.36%E -0.639%K -0.875%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-15 16:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42%EV -5.86%E -2.02%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.38%EV -1.24%E -0.517%K -0.887%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -2.36%E -0.639%K -0.875%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-15 16:29
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.73%EV -5.86%E -2.02%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.27%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.00%EV -3.68%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 16:19
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -5.86%E -2.02%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.00%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 16:29
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -5.86%E -2.02%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.00%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 16:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -5.86%E -2.02%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.33%EV -6.18%E -2.71%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.00%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 16:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -5.86%E -2.02%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 16:30
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -5.86%E -2.02%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 16:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.26%EV -6.18%E -2.14%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.25%EV -7.00%E -3.10%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -7.11%E -2.02%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 16:24
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -7.48%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -3.30%E -1.40%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -5.00%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 16:35
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -7.48%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -3.30%E -1.40%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -5.00%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 16:29
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -7.48%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.00%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 15:54
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -7.48%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.48%EV -6.18%E -2.71%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 16:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.73%EV -7.48%E -2.63%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -11.53%E -5.36%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -8.96%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 16:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -2.36%E -0.639%K -0.875%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 16:29
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.26%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.14%EV -4.53%E -1.95%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 16:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.26%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.14%EV -4.53%E -1.95%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 16:29
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.26%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.14%EV -4.53%E -1.95%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 16:29
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 16:19
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 16:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 16:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 16:19
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.47%E -4.31%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.92%E -3.91%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.47%E -4.31%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.92%E -3.91%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 16:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.28%EV -10.71%E -4.93%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -11.60%E -3.46%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 16:29
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.11%E -3.25%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -9.47%E -4.31%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -14.24%E -4.38%K -6.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 16:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.00%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 16:29
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.96%E -2.60%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 16:29
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 16:35
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 16:34
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV -6.18%E -2.71%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 16:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -9.47%E -4.31%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -6.32%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 16:19
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -10.73%E -3.90%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -11.53%E -5.36%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-15 16:38
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -12.35%E -4.57%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV +0.816%E +0.333%K +0.563%G +0.005%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -5.00%E -1.39%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 13:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -12.35%E -4.57%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 16:29
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -12.35%E -4.57%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -7.41%E -3.29%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -10.28%E -3.02%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 16:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.15%EV -12.35%E -4.57%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.13%EV -8.24%E -3.69%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -11.60%E -3.46%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.15%EV -12.35%E -4.57%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.13%EV -8.24%E -3.69%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -11.60%E -3.46%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 16:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.15%EV -12.35%E -4.57%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.13%EV -8.24%E -3.69%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.72%EV -11.60%E -3.46%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 16:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -12.35%E -4.57%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -11.53%E -5.36%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -7.64%E -2.18%K -3.06%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-15 16:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%1.0%2026-08-15 16:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%1.0%2026-08-15 16:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%1.0%2026-08-15 16:35
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%1.0%2026-08-15 16:24
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.70%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-08-15 16:24
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 31.73%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.68%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59%1.7%2026-08-15 16:40