The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar

2026-08-15 16:45 UTC — Dutch Eredivisie

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Utrecht (Local)

Prediction 40.06%2.50fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.27%40.13%39.95%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.302.4146.51%43.62%43.48%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AZ Alkmaar (Visit)

Prediction 34.40%2.91fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.70%34.37%34.47%35.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.642.652.7840.00%37.88%37.74%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.54%3.91fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.06%25.50%25.58%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.593.603.7530.30%27.89%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Utrecht (Local): 40.06%; AZ Alkmaar (Visit): 34.40%; Draw: 25.54%. For FC Utrecht (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.41, with an expected value of -3.46%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.85%EV -3.46%E -1.43%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.54%EV -4.37%E -1.57%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.61%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 17:10
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -3.86%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.73%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.47%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-07 16:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -3.86%E -1.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -7.13%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 16:05
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -5.86%E -2.49%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -8.85%E -3.34%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-07 16:05
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.65%EV -5.86%E -2.49%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -8.85%E -3.34%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-07 16:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -6.26%E -2.68%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -7.13%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -7.02%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 17:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.94%EV -7.06%E -3.04%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.32%EV -7.13%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -8.05%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-07 16:25
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.86%E -3.42%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -8.05%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 16:30
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -7.86%E -3.42%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.88%E -3.77%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.05%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-07 16:05
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -7.86%E -3.42%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -10.57%E -4.06%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -8.05%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-07 16:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -11.87%E -5.40%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -14.01%E -5.60%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-07 16:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.69%EV -11.87%E -5.40%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.24%EV -12.29%E -4.82%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.07%EV -14.43%E -4.31%K -6.14%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-07 16:20
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.27%EV -11.87%E -5.40%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.55%EV -14.01%E -5.60%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.18%EV -15.71%E -4.76%K -6.83%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-07 16:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.15%EV -13.07%E -6.02%K -11.17%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.70%EV -8.85%E -3.34%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -9.32%E -2.63%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-07 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.27%EV -13.87%E -6.45%K -12.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.63%EV -14.01%E -5.60%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.10%EV -11.88%E -3.44%K -4.85%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-07 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 39.71%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.31%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.99%16.6%2026-08-07 16:25