Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior v PSV Eindhoven

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 18:00 UTC

Final: Excelsior 1–2 PSV Eindhoven

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior (Local)

Prediction 15.30%6.54fair odd
EV +7.71%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.098%

assuming max odds 7.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.67%15.32%15.25%17.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.186.007.0420.00%16.19%16.67%14.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

PSV Eindhoven (Visit)

Prediction 65.93%1.52fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -5.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.11%65.85%65.99%68.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.411.421.4875.19%70.78%70.67%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.77%5.33fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.274%
Kelly -0.339%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.63%18.83%18.76%20.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.354.854.805.2522.99%20.64%20.83%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Excelsior (Local): 15.30%; PSV Eindhoven (Visit): 65.93%; Draw: 18.77%. For Excelsior (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.54. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯7.04I 14.20%NM 13.67%EV +7.71%E +1.09%K +1.28%G +0.098%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.78%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.55%EV -2.57%E -0.494%K -0.612%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.77%EV +7.09%E +1.01%K +1.18%G +0.084%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.36%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 17:25
LowVig.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.77%EV +7.09%E +1.01%K +1.18%G +0.084%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.36%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 17:25
BetUS🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.77%EV +7.09%E +1.01%K +1.18%G +0.084%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.36%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 17:24
BetAnything🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.77%EV +7.09%E +1.01%K +1.18%G +0.084%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.36%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 17:24
Unibet (NL)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.35%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.89%EV -3.09%E -2.10%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.77%EV -8.01%E -1.63%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 17:54
Svenska Spel🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.16%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.92%EV -4.41%E -3.04%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.91%EV -9.89%E -2.06%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 17:54
ATG (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.16%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.92%EV -4.41%E -3.04%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.91%EV -9.89%E -2.06%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-15 17:55
Coolbet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.07%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.84%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 17:19
Bovada🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.51%EV -8.36%E -6.02%K -21.44%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.58%EV -5.19%E -1.03%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 17:54
SportsBet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV +3.27%E +0.484%K +0.569%G +0.019%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.80%EV -9.02%E -6.54%K -23.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -4.26%E -0.834%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 17:24
Tipico (DE)🎯6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV +2.50%E +0.374%K +0.439%G +0.011%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -9.68%E -7.07%K -26.16%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -2.38%E -0.457%K -0.566%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 16:59
1xBet🎯6.65I 15.04%NM 14.57%EV +1.74%E +0.262%K +0.308%G +0.005%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.48%EV -2.43%E -1.64%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.94%EV -8.76%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-15 17:54
Betr (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 17:15
Grosvenor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -11.77%E -2.50%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 17:54
FanDuel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.83%EV -9.68%E -7.07%K -26.16%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV -2.38%E -0.457%K -0.566%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 17:22
Bet Right🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.20%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.35%EV -9.68%E -7.07%K -26.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 17:15
betfred_uk🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 17:53
BetRivers🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.96%EV -0.555%E -0.085%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -11.77%E -2.50%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 17:29
NordicBet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -2.09%E -0.326%K -0.386%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.57%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV -9.89%E -2.06%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯6.35I 15.75%NM 14.69%EV -2.85%E -0.449%K -0.533%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.68%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 17:54
Casumo🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -4.38%E -0.701%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -5.72%E -4.00%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -13.64%E -2.97%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -4.38%E -0.701%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -5.72%E -4.00%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -13.64%E -2.97%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 17:55
betPARX🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -4.38%E -0.701%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -5.72%E -4.00%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -13.64%E -2.97%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 17:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV -4.38%E -0.701%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.56%EV -9.68%E -7.07%K -26.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.63%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 17:45
Codere (IT)🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -5.14%E -0.830%K -0.989%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.73%EV -7.04%E -4.99%K -17.18%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -2.38%E -0.457%K -0.566%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 17:30
Unibet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -6.67%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -5.72%E -4.00%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -15.52%E -3.45%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 17:55
Bet Victor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 17:53
betano_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -1.44%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 17:55
DraftKings🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.19%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -8.01%E -1.63%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 17:54
Fanatics🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 17:55
Betway🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 17:54
PlayUp🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -6.38%E -4.50%K -15.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 17:54
PMU (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.29%EV -7.04%E -4.99%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -17.40%E -3.95%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:54
TABtouch🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.29%EV -7.04%E -4.99%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -17.40%E -3.95%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:54
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -15.52%E -3.45%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:55
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -15.52%E -3.45%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -15.52%E -3.45%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -15.52%E -3.45%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:55
Sky Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -13.64%E -2.97%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 17:24
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -12.32%E -9.26%K -37.32%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 17:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -8.20%E -1.37%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -12.32%E -9.26%K -37.32%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-15 17:45
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 16.02%EV -9.73%E -1.65%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.29%EV -3.09%E -2.10%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -9.89%E -2.06%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.18%EV -9.73%E -1.65%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 65.36%EV -9.68%E -7.07%K -26.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -13.64%E -2.97%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 17:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -11.26%E -1.94%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.97%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -18.34%E -4.22%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -11.26%E -1.94%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.97%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -18.34%E -4.22%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 17:54
LiveScore Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -11.26%E -1.94%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.97%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.59%EV -18.34%E -4.22%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Unibet (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -12.03%E -2.09%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.84%EV -4.41%E -3.04%K -9.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 17:54
Betclic (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -14.32%E -2.56%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.11%EV -5.06%E -3.52%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -17.40%E -3.95%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 17:55
Coral🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -15.85%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -2.43%E -1.64%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -15.85%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -2.43%E -1.64%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 17:55
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -15.85%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -2.43%E -1.64%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Unibet (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -15.85%E -2.88%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.55%EV -7.70%E -5.50%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.02%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Winamax (DE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.19%EV -18.91%E -3.57%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.60%EV -7.04%E -4.99%K -17.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -6.13%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 17:54
Winamax (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.23%EV -20.44%E -3.93%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 64.48%EV -8.36%E -6.02%K -21.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.29%EV -8.01%E -1.63%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 17:54
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.45%EV -23.50%E -4.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.17%EV -10.34%E -7.60%K -28.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.37%EV -10.83%E -2.28%K -2.89%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-15 17:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-08-15 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-08-15 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-08-15 17:55
Kalshi7.14I 14.01%NM 13.87%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.31%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.82%1.0%2026-08-15 17:50
Matchbook7.20I 13.89%NM 13.73%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.26%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%1.1%2026-08-15 17:55
Smarkets7.00I 14.29%NM 14.05%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.38%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.56%1.6%2026-08-15 17:55