The School of Odds
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Excelsior v PSV Eindhoven

2026-08-15 18:00 UTC — Dutch Eredivisie

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior (Local)

Prediction 19.82%5.05fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -0.629%
Kelly -0.791%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.52%19.82%19.82%20.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.644.724.8923.81%21.54%21.16%20.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

PSV Eindhoven (Visit)

Prediction 59.71%1.67fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -3.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.41%59.71%59.71%59.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.571.6466.67%63.90%63.69%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.47%4.88fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.581%
Kelly -0.736%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.13%20.47%20.47%22.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.434.504.7525.64%22.56%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Excelsior (Local): 19.82%; PSV Eindhoven (Visit): 59.71%; Draw: 20.47%. For PSV Eindhoven (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.67. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.64, with an expected value of -2.08%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.89I 20.45%NM 19.61%EV -3.08%E -0.629%K -0.791%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.49%EV -2.08%E -1.27%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.90%EV -10.34%E -2.36%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 14:25
SportsBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -4.86%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.67%EV -6.26%E -3.99%K -10.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 14:25
FanDuel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -4.86%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.67%EV -6.26%E -3.99%K -10.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 14:24
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -5.85%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.75%EV -4.47%E -2.79%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -2.76%E -0.581%K -0.736%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV -6.84%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.54%EV -5.66%E -3.58%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -5.83%E -1.27%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 14:26
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -8.65%E -5.65%K -16.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -7.88%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-07 14:30
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -10.81%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.05%EV -8.65%E -5.65%K -16.32%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.87%EV -11.36%E -2.62%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-07 14:25
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.50%EV -16.75%E -3.99%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.41%EV -10.44%E -6.96%K -20.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%EV -20.16%E -5.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-07 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.